Yadier Molina –Not a Hall of Famer

Ahh, hype. If you watch/read/listen to baseball, especially when the Cardinals are playing, that Yadier Molina is a Hall of Famer. To back this up, most writers use anecdotes from former teammates or past Cardinals. This is not objective. Many will discuss Yadier Molina’s ‘brilliance as a pitch framer’.

That’s fine, but framing requires three people, not one. Giving Molina credit for it all means the umpire and pitcher are not involved–but research shows that some umpires are more susceptible to pitch-framing than others and that pitch-framing is more important for breaking balls than fastballs in terms of umpire judgment. Basically–Molina doesn’t deserve 100% credit for pitch framing. I’d reckon it’s somewhere between 33-50%.

Also noted for his credentials is his rate of throwing baserunners out–an impressive 40%. Now, that IS impressive, but writers then talk about how over his career, teams have run on the Cardinals 500 fewer times than against any other team….which sounds impressive until you find out that there are fewer stolen base attempted today than any other period of baseball history other than the late ’40s-early ’50s.

The other argument is Molina is a better catcher than others not in the Hall of Fame, therefore he should go in….poppycock. He is perhaps the fifth best catcher not in the Hall.

So to the issues:

40% CS rate – No different than Bob Boone. Boone is actually more impressive. Teams attempted 90 steals/year against Boone–in an era where teams averaged 180-200 attempts…so that’s 110 fewer attempts/year…over 19 years, that’s more than 2,000 fewer (the actual number is closer to 1,500 by the way)–he prevented 1,000+ more attempts over the same length career.

Gold Gloves – Molina has a ton, but isn’t that reputation rather than data. There’s an argument against several catchers that they aren’t that good because they don’t have Gold Gloves. The catch? 1970-1985 was dominated by Sundberg, Munson, Parrish…and Boone. You could’ve been the second best in every season for two decades and not picked up an award. Now look at NL catchers over the past 20 years…not inspiring.

“Best at his position” – This is the argument to negate Boone, Freehan, Tenace, et al. But really this damns Molina with faint praise. We could just as equally say “Dave Concepcion was the best shortstop of his era” and be equally correct. Is Conception a HOFer? Not at all. He played in an era of incredibly horrible shortstops–Metzger, LeMaster, DeJesus, Uribe, etc. Really, go look up 1970s NL shortstops…you’ll come away horribly unimpressed.

What about modern stats? Here’s best and career OPS+ [OPS measures your performance compared to league average…100 = average] Boone: 115 / 82 (Over average 5 of 19 years) Molina: 137 / 97 (137 is a GREAT season…he’s been over 100 6 of 19 years.) Posey: 171 / 129[!!!] (Over average 10 of 11 years…129 for a career is WAYYY into HOF territory) Tenace: 176 / 136[!!!!} (Over average 13 of 15 full-time seasons) Freehan: 145 / 112 (Over average 9 of 14 years) Joe Mauer: 171 / 124 (Over average 14 of 15 years) –note: Mauer only played 9 seasons at C Munson: 142 / 116 (Over average 9 of 11 years…died during that 11th year while at OPS+ of 96)

So–offensively, Molina is currently no better than 6th of catchers not in the Hall. If we decide to ignore Mauer (who won Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, and an MVP at catcher), then Molina is 5th. I choose not to ignore Mauer–he switched due to concussion…but was behind the plate for a career the same length as Munson.

How about an evaluation of overall ability? That’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR). That takes into account ballpark, the era played in, etc. Here’s the top 20 for WAR at catcher: In order…: Bench, Carter, I-Rod, Fisk, Piazza, Berra, MAUER, Dickey, Hartnett, Cochrane, Simmons, MUNSON, TENACE, POSEY, Ewing, FREEHAN, Campenella, Schang, Posada, Bresnahan.

No Molina (because he’s Bob Boone with good PR). Molina is actually 22nd. If he performs at career average next year, he’ll climb to 19th on the list (which is 20% below Hall of Fame average).

BTW–here’s Posada and Kendall for offense:

Posada: 153 / 121 (over average 13 of 15 years) Kendall: 137 / 95 (over average 7 of 15 years)…I won’t even try an argument that Kendall was a decent defensive catcher though. He wasn’t.

So–even guys I didn’t previously mention are far superior at the plate…probably a good time to mention that there are only two catchers worse than Molina in the Hall–both old-time selections by the Veteran’s Committee…

What about defense though?

Boone: 40% (30% above league average) 5pb, 30wp / season Molina: 40% (40% above league average) 5pb, 30wp / season Posey: 33% (20% over league average) 2pb, 20wp / season Tenace: 36% (league average) 6pb, 16wp / season Freehan: 37% CS (league average), 8pb, 27wp / season Joe Mauer: 33% CS (20% over league average), 4pb, 24wp / season Munson: 44% CS (20% over league average), 9pb, 30wp / season

Since we’re talking defense, let me look up Rick Dempsey. He’s famous for the line–just throw it low, nothing will get by me.

Dempsey: 40% CS (15% above league average), 2pb, 15wp / season (yeah, he blocked everything)

Anyways–there’s nothing there that stands out for Molina to mark him as superior to those other non-HOF catchers.

What does it all mean?

It means my flip comment that Molina is Bob Boone with good PR is pretty much accurate. Based on WAR and OPS+, Molina’s inferior to a lot of guys out there and not in the Hall of Fame–and while Molina’s defense is absolutely excellent…it doesn’t stand out above those same guys performing better at their peak and over their career.

One last thing…fandom does not mean irrational. I’m accused of opposing Molina because he is a Cardinal–but it’s forgotten that I actually believed Ted Simmons was unjustly overlooked for the Hall…so here’s the poop on Simmons: OPS+: 118 / 148 (over average 13 of 18 seasons behind the plate) Defense: 34% CS (league average), 10pb, 27wp / season (a bit sub-par…but well made up for by the massive OPS+)