West Region Top 10

I’ve debated about what content makes sense this year as we go into a limited conference only are you sure we’re going to play next week wait who has Covid season. The Top 25 seemed silly to ponder as I simply can’t watch enough national matches to get a feel for everyone, but what about a Top 10 in the West Region? I mean, it’s still silly. We’re missing the SCIAC, which would place at least 2 and probably 3 teams on that list. None of the conferences are really playing each other so there’s a lot of guess work. But, for my loyal readers, you know I epitomize courage. You know that I’m often willing to fight the losing fight and more often cause a winnable fight to be a lost cause. So, I’ll be your huckleberry this year and attempt a West Region Top 10.

I’ll start with the pseudo preseason (since two teams have already played) list and then discuss in more depth at the bottom.

West Region Top 10

1. Trinity

2. Colorado College

3. Southwestern

4. Pacific Lutheran

5. UT-Dallas

6. Puget Sound

7. Mary Hardin-Baylor

8. George Fox

9. Dallas

10. LeTourneau

I think Trinity is the no brainer choice for the West Region top team this year. For starters, their expected points loss to graduation was only going to be 5.8%. Looking over their latest roster, they are retaining their top 5 hitters and really only have to replace one of their setters. As you’ll see below, this minimal loss is very unique this season. Trinity was a Final 4 team last year and frankly this Covid season really robbed them of a chance to do better nationally in 2020. They are my runaway pick for the West Region this season.

To be frank (although I prefer Robert), it’s a crapshoot after Trinity. I’ve put Colorado College here because of their streak of NCAA Tournament appearances. No one comes close to that so although their expected graduation points loss was a high 43.7% and they lose their All-American setter not to mention their libero I still have them 2^nd. Wow, that’s a lot to lose. I may reconsider this as I go through the other teams. On the plus side they do return their top two hitters and they have an excellent match-proven setter to pick up the slack. They also have two top middles returning so I’m feeling better about putting them 2^nd, but make no mistake this decision is partly based on being a going away gift to Coach Swan.

It’s hard for me to objectively rate Southwestern. Being a pessimistic person at heart I tend to fixate on their deficiencies more than the positives, but here’s why they get the 3^rd spot and why I see the SCAC dominating the West Region rankings this season. Originally, Southwestern only had two seniors who combined for 101 points leaving the squad. With their latest roster out, it appears they have also lost their leading hitter who was also a 6-rotation outside. Still, that’s it. They have 3 good middles, another 6-rotation outside and a setter who played really well despite missing part of the 2019 season. Add an outstanding right side that can also set and the return of their libero and they seem to be positioned to take the 2^nd spot in the region. Still, I have those nagging thoughts as this team, being so young, has no one from the last time Southwestern made the NCAA Tournament (2017). That lack of big game experience keeps them behind both of the Tigers teams above them.

One thing you learn doing these Top 10 or Top 25 lists is that the teams who have proven themselves over time typically do well in the future. Pacific Lutheran had a bit of an off season in 2019 not getting to 20 wins but their graduating points loss isn’t too bad (28.5%). In fact, those losses are really just from their top hitter who graduated but they do keep the next five hitters on the roster. They also keep their setter and the ping pong ball player that is their libero (she bounces from sideline to sideline digging everything). I think another year of experience helps this team to the top spot in the NWC and number four on my rankings.

I don’t know what UT-Dallas has this season as they have 12 freshmen on their roster but their staff always recruits well so I have to trust them. Of their top 5 hitters they only return 2 (they have a 49.5% points loss) and they lose a top setter from their squad. When you compare these losses to the teams I have ranked above you can see why I’ve dropped them down but UTD always comes to play regardless of who is on the court. Now, you might be asking why did I leave Colorado College higher with comparable losses when UTD actually ranked higher in Points/Set over the last 5-years and my answer is a simple, “I have no clue.” I’ve talked about the national bias against UTD and maybe I’m propagating that here, too?

I’m not sure what to make of Puget Sound. They are still very young and have added 7 freshmen to the squad of 22 players. They didn’t lose any seniors but their current roster shows a loss of 6 players including two that I had high hopes for when they were recruited (contributing to a 16% points loss). I think they are positioned statistically to possible win the NWC but, like Southwestern, I worry about big game experience that Pacific Lutheran has and they do not. These two teams will kickoff the NWC (Washington) schedule this weekend and it will make for interesting viewing. I’m also intrigued to see the growth of their setter/right side and if she can get the most of these young hitters.

Mary Hardin-Baylor is basically in the same boat as UT-Dallas as they are bringing in 8 freshmen and are losing a lot of statistics. Their points loss sits at 62.4%, which is a huge red flag, but UMHB has always been a strong program and until they falter, we have to assume this will be the case this season. Problem is that they also lose their setter, a large chuck of their digs and the vast majority of their blocking. They do keep an outstanding outside that should be the focal point of their offense and a really good middle hitter. Honestly, I had them higher on this ranking but looking at the losses forced me to move them down the list. The real question with UMHB is how well did they recruit and how fast can they contribute.

I’m dropping another NWC team in although we may not get to see them play until March if at all depending on what Oregon does with their Covid restrictions. George Fox had a nice little run and the end of their 2019 season and they really aren’t losing much going into this season. They sport only a 9.7% points loss and really took no big hits at the other positions. They return their best hitters, the NWC libero of the year and their do everything setter and really could be the surprise team in the NWC this season.

University of Dallas is certainly not one of the traditional main powers in the West Region, but I thought they deserved a spot on the list since they are one of the few programs suffering less than 10% points loss and they did win 17 matches in 2019. They are in a tough conference but they had some success behind their outstanding first-year setter and we’ll see if they are able to improve on their results this season. The team did have two hitters with over 400+ points and a third that came in at 350.5. Tough decision on these lists to reward teams that on paper look like they are ready to step up (like Dallas) or take a team that is a proven commodity but look headed for a down year.  

LeTourneau has one of the best outside hitters in the conference if not the region and that is pretty much the reason the team gets my last spot. They did lose a lot of statistics (52.1% points loss) but they brought in a junior transfer to take over the libero spot, which looks to be working out. They also return their outstanding setter. If they can find the extra hitting then this pick will work out and there may be room to move up. They are coming off an 18-win season but typically they wouldn’t be my 3^rd ASC team, which is what I’m making them out to be.

There were a number of more prominent West Region teams that didn’t make my initial Top 10 list because there are just a lot of questions over what they lost in points. Teams like Austin College (61.1% points loss), Whitworth (73.6%), Pacific (60.6%), Hardin-Simmons (59.2%), McMurry (53.2%) and Concordia (59.2%). It should be pointed out that these numbers are before I reexamined their rosters (for the most part) so they could actually be worse. Just looking at the ASC West Division across the board is a little spooky. On paper, it’s really wide open but in the end, I had to believe that UMHB would pull in recruits that were more likely to step in and contribute than the other teams.

Overall, I’m comfortable with Trinity at the top and the rest is just guesswork. If I didn’t respect the Colorado College program so much then they probably would be somewhere in the middle. Southwestern seems too high to me but they just seem to be in better shape than 95% of the other teams in the region. This also meant having the three top teams being from the SCAC, which probably won’t be the case by the end of the year. I think the NWC will be really tight and I hope they can pull off their season and conduct their conference tournament. Pac Lu™ gets my #1 spot based on street creed at this point. I HATE having UT-Dallas this low because I believe in their program. The ASC, in a normal year, would be heading for a really down year based on the statistics losses across the board. Puget Sound is placed about right. Maybe too high in a normal year until they prove themselves. UMHB was actually lower on the list but, again, being a top program gives them a boost. George Fox and Dallas should be fine this year but you want these programs to take that next step. The 10^th spot was the toughest to fill. I was considering Concordia, McMurry, Hardin-Simmons, Pacific and TLU. One team that I think will be a spoiler in the SCAC that didn’t get a mention is St. Thomas (TX). They are still in their DIII reclassification period so I don’t think I should make them eligible for this type of list but they didn’t lose much and they showed they could play with anyone in the SCAC last year. Finally, teams with low statistics losses (under 10% points loss originally) that didn’t get some love by me were Centenary, Whitman, Lewis & Clark, Belhaven and Howard Payne. (I’m sure some of these programs ended up losing a lot more but a good base to start from.) These teams just need to keep building that résumé.

I hope to keep this going weekly as long as there are matches to be played. With no out-of-conference play I’ll be having to rely on my eyes and watching the streams. There are no right or wrong answers with this list but I can guarantee you that I will still mess this up royally by the end of the season.