West Region Rankings (10/9/17)

Win/Loss is “in division” record. Strength of Schedule (SOS) numbers used are current as of today. With Regional Rankings a week from being public, I tried to lean these rankings towards what I think the RAC will do.

My rank, (my Week 5 rank, AVCA Week 5 rank), record, key results last week1 (1, 2). Colorado College 18-0 W: [None]; L: Colorado Christian (DII). 2 (2, 3). Trinity 18-3 W: UMHB. 3 (4, 8). Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 14-4 W: [None]. 4 (3, 5). Southwestern 18-2 W: UTT. 5 (8, NR). Whittier 13-6 W: La Verne; L: Scranton. 6 (6, NR). Mary Hardin Baylor 17-2 W: [None]; L: Trinity. 7 (5, 14). La Verne 13-5 W: [None]; L: Whittier, Austin, Scranton. 8 (NR, NR). Pacific Lutheran 13-3 W: [None].Dropped Out: #7 Chapman (11-6).

This is tough folks and I’ll explain below…believe me I’ll explain until there is blood dripping from your ears. (Again, I think I’ve gotten too graphic. I really need to watch this.) First time in 3 weeks where I have dropped a team from the Top 8 as Chapman is moved out. I know they have a significant injury but just too many losses right now. La Verne with three losses this week was tough to keep in, too.

Colorado College is the easy choice to stay at #1 for another week. They are undefeated in DIII play (only loss is to a DII team) and have a strong SOS. They also have West Region head to head wins over Trinity, Southwestern and Whittier along with impressive out-of-region wins (Calvin and Hope). This is a no brainer. I think Trinity is the obvious second team despite a head to head loss to Whittier. They have a great record, a good SOS and West Region wins over Southwestern, CMS and UMHB. When I compare them directly with Whittier against the primary criteria they come out ahead in W/L and Common Opponent while losing out on head-to-head and SOS. The quality of their overall resume is enough to put them here and the RAC is going to have the issue that Whittier shouldn’t be placed above CMS. I really struggled with the #3 spot as I think Southwestern should get this but I’m going with CMS. The criteria come out equal between the two teams and I think the SU win over Whitewater is enough to give them the spot. On the flip side, I just don’t think the RAC will give the SCAC the top 3 spots in the rankings and the difference between them is razor thin. Southwestern gets spot #4 but only by the thinnest of margins over Whittier. The criteria appear equal between the two teams but Whittier has a couple of questionable losses that tip the scale for me. As a side note, both the CMS and SU coaches are on the RAC committee and it just makes sense that their teams will end up back-to-back in some manner. Whittier’s victory over La Verne propels them up the rankings and I know they don’t have the reputation to be in this spot but I don’t see how they can’t be placed here (if not higher). I almost had UMHB in this spot but when compared with Whittier they come out on the short side with SOS and Common Opponent. Their SOS is still under .500 and their signature win is really just UTD. This alone might move them lower down the rankings but the next team up is La Verne and they are coming off an awful week. If you read my Weekend Wrap-Up then you know the probable cause for this and they could be ranked a spot lower in my mind. Rounding out the rankings is newcomer Pacific Lutheran. The teams considered here were Pac Lu, Chapman and UTD. Pac Lu has W/L and SOS over both teams so this was a pretty easy choice for me. I think there will be a push for UTD because of their reputation but despite their good record they only have an average SOS with their signature wins being over UTT, Hendrix and UW- Eau Claire. Hendrix is down this year and UW-Eau Claire lost to St. Thomas, a team Pac Lu swept. I think it will also be hard for the committee not to put a NWC team in the rankings and, as I said, they deserve it. Oh, and don’t forget UTD has lost to La Verne and UMHB so there is really no place for them at this time.

How are the ears? Like I said this was tough.