West Region RAC Rankings – Predictions

All of the regions are doing their practice RAC rankings this week and this is my attempt at predicting their results. Since their results won’t be made public, we can just assume I nailed it! (Oh, I’ve got a little gift for everyone at the end of this post…no fair jumping down there until you’ve read everything!)

[Skip this next part if you read it last week.]

As a reminder, the NCAA uses 5 criteria and they do not state if they are prioritized in any way. The criteria are:

• Win/Loss percentage (DIII opponents only)

• Head-to-Head

• Results versus common DIII opponents

• Results versus ranked opponents

• DIII Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Results versus ranked opponents means teams that are ranked by the region’s RAC. The first week there is no data to go off with this criterion so it is not used. Following the first week, the previous week’s data is used. So, if CMS is ranked in the West Region and Ramapo is ranked in the New York region week one and you beat them both then you are 2-0 on week two. (Yes, for this criterion these wins are considered equal. Brilliant!)

DIII SOS is calculated a little different for selection in that SOS is used for 2/3 of the value and the other third is your combined opponent’s SOS. I don’t have access to these numbers so I just use the normal SOS published on the NCAA site.

Here are some other soft rules I used during this process:

• I know that SOS is a bigger component to the NCAA than the other criteria so in case of ties, this won out. (The caveat to this rule is if the NCAA likes the other team better and it has a lower SOS then SOS doesn’t matter.)

• I don’t have the ability to spreadsheet every common opponent so I might have missed something here.

• Obviously, ranked results are not used here since that data doesn’t exist, yet.

[OK, back to original content.]

Before I get to the ranking, it appears the NCAA SOS calculations are all working. I will only use the SOS “to date” values but the website also shows us how they SOS will change based on future opponents. Some curious SOS items:

• Juniata leads the nation in SOS with 0.747. That’s insane!

• The West Region leader is Southwestern with 0.651.

• The highest Watch List team is Cal Lutheran with 0.647.

• Mount Mary has the worst SOS in the nation with 0.204.

• Mills College has the worst SOS in the West Region with 0.396.

• McMurry has the worst SOS among the Watch List teams with 0.484.

And now…here is my best guess at how the West RAC will rank the Top 8 in the West Region:

West Region Top 8 (10/9/18)

1. CMS

2. UMHB

3. Trinity

4. Colorado College

5. Pacific Lutheran

6. Whittier

7. Chapman

8. La Verne

CMS (0.889 win percentage & 0.646 SOS)

Nothing has really changed for CMS this week. One item of note is that their SOS is expected to drop to 0.609. Overall, great winning percentage, great SOS, head-to-head advantage on Trinity and common opponent advantages on everyone to boot. Can’t ask for much more than that.

UMHB (0.941 & 0.576)

Their one loss to Whittier is what puts them behind CMS. On the flip side, their UT-Dallas win moves them ahead of Trinity. Their comeback 5-set win over Southwestern this week was huge as CMS, Trinity and Colorado College have all beaten the Pirates. With regards to future SOS, it appears that it will hold steady.

Trinity (0.800 & 0.638)

Their head-to-head over Colorado College keeps them ahead of them but, as mentioned previously, their loss to UT-Dallas keeps them behind UMHB. Their future SOS looks to be dropping to 0.618. Trinity does host UMHB later in the month.

Colorado College (0.909 & 0.532)

That SOS is just a killer and the future SOS is even worse at 0.522. They need to beat Trinity in 2-weeks if they hope to move up the rankings. I moved the Tigers way down in my Top 25 this week and the SOS is a large part of my reasoning. The other unsaid component is that most of the Tigers bigger wins came at home. Don’t get me wrong…the Tigers are really good. It’s just that I can’t quantify it easily and it appears the West RAC is going to have the same problem.

Pacific Lutheran (0.867 & 0.588)

We run into our first snag of the rankings. We have a mess of teams all with certain advantages in Pacific Lutheran, Whittier, Chapman, La Verne, UT-Dallas and Cal Lutheran (to a lesser extent). In the end, the ranked win criterion that will come into play after the first week’s rankings are published should make it clearer but until then I have to order these teams based on what I have now. Pacific Lutheran losses out (because of the SOS tiebreaker I use) with both La Verne and UT-Dallas but they hold their own against the rest of the teams. In the end, I went with the team with the good winning percentage and good SOS in this spot, but I’m not sure how the RAC will order these teams. (The Lutes future SOS is predicted to decrease to 0.577.) For what’s it worth, and this is not an NCAA selection criteria, in these situations I personally would break the tie with selectability on a national level. Pacific Lutheran has the better national wins at this point and is more likely to garner an at-large bid.

Whittier (0.579 & 0.613)

Well, hello Whittier! This has rumblings of last year, doesn’t it? Whittier compares well against Chapman, Cal Lutheran, La Verne and ties UT-Dallas. Their future SOS is predicted to decrease slightly to 0.600 but that’s still really good. They really need to add to their win total to increase their chances come selection time.

Chapman (0.833 & 0.519)

The good news is that their future SOS is expected to rise to 0.527 but that’s a hard pill to get past the selection committee when they don’t have a quality national win. I can’t stress enough that Chapman really needs to claim that second spot in the SCIAC. Every loss has the potential to knock them lower in the rankings because of that SOS.

La Verne (0.650 & 0.599)

It’s an SCIAC love fest! La Verne’s future SOS is predicted to decrease to 0.589, which is still acceptable but they also need to add to their win totals. The elephant in the room is that all of the SCIAC teams are going to beat on each other to finish out the season and as I’ve said in the past, quality conference depth doesn’t translate in the NCAA criteria.

The rest of the teams on the Watch List are (in no order) Cal Lutheran, McMurry, UT-Dallas and Whitworth. Cal Lutheran has the worst winning percentage of the lot with the best SOS. Their main problem is that their only quality West Region win is Whittier. McMurry has a great winning percentage but a horrible SOS. I don’t see them getting an at-large bid when even their future SOS number is under 0.500. UT-Dallas drops from last week’s list (as did Cal Lutheran) as their La Verne loss really hurts and it’s only compounded by the loss to Southwestern this past week. Six of the Watch List teams hold wins over Southwestern so it just kills their common opponent criterion. Whitworth just isn’t a player right now and can’t even win a comparison against Pacific Lutheran (who they beat). Like McMurry, I’m not sure they have a path forward to an at-large bid.

For those tracking this at home, with this ordering, CMS would host the West Regional. Like last week, I still struggle seeing 8 West Region teams in the tournament unless there is a conference tournament upset. Hoping that thought process will change next week.

BONUS GIFT!!!!!

My readers from last year know that there is one absolute truth in DIII volleyball and that is a team must be in the Top 10 in hitting percentage in order to win the National Championship. It has been true for the last 8 years I’ve researched and there isn’t another statistic that comes close to this streak.

So, without anymore fanfare, here are your ONLY national champion candidates:

1. JWU (RI) – 0.296

2. Calvin – 0.280

3. Baldwin Wallace – 0.277

4. Colorado College – 0.273

5. MIT – 0.266

6. Bowdoin – 0.265

7. UMHB – 0.265

8. Amherst – 0.263

9. Johns Hopkins – 0.260

10. Springfield – 0.255

As a region, it’s time to throw all of our support behind Colorado College and UMHB. Forget CMS! They have no chance!

The West Region wannabes are Trinity (15), McMurry (23), Chapman (25), UT-Dallas (75), Pacific (77), La Verne (84), Whitworth (100) and CMS (101)!

(On a serious note for a second…it appears hitting percentages are down a bit from last year at this time. Someone should look into that.)