West RAC Rankings – Prediction

I decided to move the West Region Rankings into its own post. This was going to happen when the West RAC starts releasing their rankings but I’m getting a head start because I attempted to apply the NCAA Selection criteria to this week’s rankings.

As a reminder, the NCAA uses 5 criteria and they do not state if they are prioritized in any way. The criteria are:

• Win/Loss percentage (DIII opponents only)

• Head-to-Head

• Results versus common DIII opponents

• Results versus ranked opponents

• DIII Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Results versus ranked opponents means teams that are ranked by the region’s RAC. The first week there is no data to go off with this criterion so it is not used. Following the first week, the previous week’s data is used. So, if CMS is ranked in the West Region and Ramapo is ranked in the New York region week one and you beat them both then you are 2-0 on week two. (Yes, for this criterion these wins are considered equal. Brilliant!)

DIII SOS is calculated a little different for selection in that SOS is used for 2/3 of the value and the other third is your combined opponent’s SOS. I don’t have access to these numbers so I just use the normal SOS published on the NCAA site.

What does all of this mean? NCAA Insanity!!!!!!! Learn to love it!

Here is my best guess at how the West RAC would rank the Top 8 in the West Region:

West Region Top 8 (10/1/18)

1. CMS

2. UMHB

3. Trinity

4. Colorado College

5. Pacific Lutheran

6. Chapman

7. UT-Dallas

8. Cal Lutheran

Interesting, isn’t it?

Here are some other soft rules I used during this process:

• I know that SOS is a bigger component to the NCAA than the other criteria so in case of ties, this won out. (The caveat to this rule is if the NCAA likes the other team better and it has a lower SOS then SOS doesn’t matter.)

• I don’t have the ability to spreadsheet every common opponent so I might have missed something here.

• Obviously, ranked results are not used here since that data doesn’t exist, yet.

• The NCAA published SOS is not updated through this weekend, yet. (In the future, this post will be published later in the week because of this.)

CMS (0.874 win percentage & 0.635 SOS)

CMS has no losses to West Region teams and holds a win over UT-Tyler that proves to be elusive to other West Region teams. They may lose out to either win percentage or SOS but not both and then head-to-head or common opponent moves the needle in their favor. The Trinity head-to-head is big for them.

UMHB (0.929 & 0.623)

The Whittier loss pushed the Cru out of the first spot as CMS beat them in 5-sets. The Trinity loss to UT-Dallas (a team UMHB beat) pretty much makes it a clean sweep for UMHB in case anyone is thinking the battle between 2 and 3 are close. The SOS between UMHB and Trinity is statistically the same but I’ve been told in the past that even this small margin (0.001) is enough to put a check mark in the UMHB side. Silly NCAA.

Trinity (0.789 & 0.622)

The Tigers really aren’t close to the first two spots, which I find interesting. With respect to Colorado College, the head-to-head win gives them the nod.

Colorado College (0.944 & 0.547)

Prior to this week, a number of people (including myself) had Colorado College as the best team in the nation. Don’t think that the Trinity loss is the reason they are listed fourth as it probably only knocked them down one spot. The SOS is a killer here coupled with the fact that the Tigers haven’t played a lot of the other teams ranked in the west. If Colorado College loses a couple of matches then the win percentage advantage goes away and you are looking at a team where the NCAA (come selection time) will say SOS doesn’t matter. (See what I did there?)

Pacific Lutheran (0.846 & 0.596)

Good job by the Lutes to get a respectable SOS this season. They are really hurt by not beating any of the other teams ranked by the West Region right now. The Colorado College head-to-head loss places them behind the Tigers. Oddly, the Puget Sound victories also help them with common opponents (Whittier and Whitworth).

Chapman (0.882 & 0.457)

Whoa, look at that SOS. Will the Panthers be the UMHB of 2018 and miss out on a spot. With that SOS, Chapman is basically giving one of the five criteria to every other team in the nation when you start doing comparisons. Chapman’s recent week with wins over Pomona-Pitzer, Cal Lutheran and La Verne puts them here (and isn’t fully integrated into their low SOS, yet).

UT-Dallas (0.647 & 0.634)

Their Trinity win really helps balance out the head-to-head La Verne loss (as they lost to Trinity). The Comets really need to stack up some wins in conference to improve their winning percentage and help their bid.

Cal Lutheran (0.556 & 0.588)

The Regals (as of today) only make the NCAA as an at-large team if they pull up stakes and move to New England. It was a struggle to find the 8^th team but I went with Cal Lutheran due to their SOS. Their Puget Sound win helps them over Whitworth (who lost to them). Their Whittier win helps them over La Verne. You might ask why a common opponent win is equal to a head-to-head win and I can’t give you a rational answer. I just know the NCAA does it this way. Wacky NCAA!

The rest of the teams on the Watch List are (in no order) La Verne, McMurry, Whittier and Whitworth. Each of these teams have more problems (per the criteria) than the teams ranked as far as I can tell.

For those tracking this at home, with this ordering, CMS would host the West Regional. Having said that, there is no way that Cal Lutheran would get selected, which means at best the West would have 7 teams and that puts the regional at UMHB. (You’ll love Belton.)