West RAC Ranking Predictions

The second public release of the RAC rankings will come out on Wednesday. Once again, I’ll try to predict the outcome. If you want to see these teams in a little more detail you can check out the Watch List. (As always, I left a little gift at the end of this post.)

As a reminder, the NCAA uses 5 criteria and they do not state if they are prioritized in any way. The criteria are:

• Win/Loss percentage (DIII opponents only)

• Head-to-Head

• Results versus common DIII opponents

• Results versus ranked opponents

• DIII Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Results versus ranked opponents means teams that are ranked by the region’s RAC. This is the first week that this criterion will come into play and it does change things up a bit. (Note – I calculated the ranked wins so a manual error on my part is possible.) As I’ve mentioned in the past, it appears that often the RACs use this criterion as a percentage, which is not the way it is written. It’s supposed to be an evaluation of the results (both wins and losses). The RACs should be giving more credit to a team with better quality wins than a team with more ranked wins or a better percentage if the teams they have played are inferior.

For the SOS in this go-around I’m using the published numbers from last week because they are going to be closer than anything else I can find.

When I went through all of the regions last week, it appeared that the West RAC favored SOS by a large margin while other RACs seem to favor win-loss record. I also believe the selection committee is using a standard deviation unique to each region when comparing SOS. If two teams are within the standard deviation then it’s considered a wash (or tie).

Here is my best guess at how the West RAC will rank the Top 8 in the West Region:

West Region Top 8 (10/22/18), (Last Week’s Ranking)

1. CMS (1)

2. UMHB (2)

3. Trinity (3)

4. Colorado College (6)

5. Cal Lutheran (4)

6. UT-Dallas (5)

7. Chapman (NR)

8. La Verne (NR)

Dropped Out: Whittier (7) & Pacific Lutheran (8).

I’ll get into more detail with each team below but here’s a brief summary. I see the top 3 staying the same despite Trinity’s loss to Colorado College this past week. I believe Colorado College will move up but the RAC is still going to be concerned over their low SOS so I won’t be surprised if they are sitting lower in their rankings. Cal Lutheran lost to Whittier so I was a little surprised they were still this high but that’s more a reflection on the other teams behind them than the Regals. UT-Dallas is really close to the teams behind them (and to Cal Lu ahead of them) so they really could be anywhere on Wednesday. My philosophy on the Comets is that they are playing a tough schedule this week (UT-Tyler, Millikin, DePauw and WUSTL) and hopefully these results will help out. A UT-Tyler win helps only in the West Region while a WUSTL win helps nationally. I don’t want to think about losses to Millikin or DePauw. I have Chapman and La Verne jumping into the rankings, which I detail below. Whittier and Pacific Lutheran were dropped and this is where you see ranked wins come into play. Neither team is very strong in this criterion so close results that tipped in their favor last week no longer do this week.

CMS (0.870 win percentage, 0.628 SOS & 7-3 Ranked Wins)

I believe CMS will hang on to the top spot this week but if the West RAC misapplies the criteria than it could be UMHB. CMS wins the comparison against Trinity and others but it’s close with UMHB. CMS has SOS and common opponent while UMHB has record. Where it gets interesting is UMHB has a better Ranked Wins percentage (see my warning above) but CMS has played and beat better teams. I would give the Ranked Win edge to CMS but will the RAC? If they do, then we have a tie and I still think SOS pushes it towards CMS.

UMHB (0.917, 0.567 & 4-1)

I actually think Trinity should be in the second spot but this is a prediction post and I think the West RAC will put UMHB here. These teams play on Wednesday so any controversy will be over quickly. When comparing the criteria with Trinity, UMHB comes out ahead with record and common opponent while Trinity has SOS. When we add in ranked wins UMHB again has a better percentage but I believe Trinity has the advantage here with better wins. I believe the RAC will not give Trinity this advantage so they will give the second spot to UMHB. In my mind, they are even and Trinity’s SOS pushes them over the top.

Trinity (0.800, 0.596 & 4-5)

As mentioned above, I believe Trinity should be second but I can see a case where they could be ranked behind Cal Lutheran or Colorado College. Heck, if you want to favor head-to-head wins than remember they lost to UT-Dallas! I’m going to leave Trinity here because I like their ranked wins (Colorado College, Gustavus Adolphus, Aurora and UW-Stevens Point).  Cal Lutheran has some impressive ranked wins as well (JWU Rhode Island and CMS), but they also have some poor losses and that should be considered. If the RAC favors Cal Lu in this criterion then their SOS advantage may push them up to #3. I think this is very foolish because Trinity is a lock to get an at-large bid while Cal Lutheran is not. The Trinity / Colorado College comparison also comes down to ranked wins and again I give this advantage to Trinity. We’ll just have to wait and see what the RAC does here.

Colorado College (0.929, 0.534 & 3-2)

This really comes down to (wait for it) ranked wins. Do you prefer:

• 4-7 with wins against JWU (RI), Carthage, Whittier and CMS but losses to unranked La Verne, Chapman and Pomona.

• 3-2 with wins against Trinity, St. Thomas and Pacific Lutheran with no bad losses (Trinity and WUSTL).

I like the second option and that is Colorado College. Both teams have shown they can play at the highest level but only one team has shown they are inconsistent. I worry the RAC will call this even (or even in Cal Lu’s favor) and that coupled with their SOS leaves Cal Lutheran in this spot. I think if these two teams played than Colorado College wins and I believe the ranked win criterion is telling you this. With all that said, their SOS is troubling come selection time and I’m sure the RAC is worried about it.

Cal Lutheran (0.600, 0.628 & 4-7)

I’m not trying to be rude to the Regals, it’s just a matter of how much a good SOS and two great wins should be able to carry you in the rankings. They have their place and I believe it’s here at #5. Just to show the Regal fans I’m not all bad, UT-Dallas could be ahead of you. So, could Chapman. I think the RAC will have you here (or even higher) because of how much they are favoring SOS. When I compare Cal Lutheran to Chapman, the Regals have SOS and ranked wins but Chapman has record and head-to-head. Since Chapman has a better record in the SCIAC, they have to have a better common opponent results, too. The Chapman SOS is just a killer when it comes to selection and this is why I think the RAC doesn’t put them here. With UT-Dallas, it’s really a tie and I personally like to give the advantage to head-to-head wins, when possible which the Comets have. Still, the RAC didn’t do this last week so why would they do it this week?

UT-Dallas (0.720, 0.583 & 3-4)

I didn’t understand the #5 ranking for UT-Dallas last week but it has sort of grown on me. My issue with UT-Dallas last week was that they don’t really stand above anyone in the region. I can make a case for Chapman, La Verne, Whittier, Southwestern, Whitworth or Pacific Lutheran to be above UT-Dallas. Now most of these comparisons come down to ties or an opinion over ranked wins or common opponents. The RAC has already told me they favor UT-Dallas so I’ll keep them ranked. I will say this, UT-Dallas has one tough week ahead and if they can come out strong with some key wins then they will lock into a spot that can get them an at-large bid. Spit the bit this week and I see trouble in their future.

Chapman (0.826, 0.509 & 2-3)

Look at the SOS. Now turn away before is scars your eyes. I think the RAC may put La Verne here but when I do that direct comparison Chapman comes out ahead. They have an advantage in record, head-to-head and common opponent. Last week the RAC heavily favored SOS, which is why I think the RAC will be tempted to put La Verne here.

La Verne (0.600, 0.595 & 4-6)

This came down between La Verne and Whittier and La Verne has a slightly better record and slightly better SOS to offset the head-to-head loss. Southwestern actually matched up well with Whittier but not La Verne. If Whitworth wins the NWC then I just don’t see these last two teams getting in.

I’m not real comfortable with anything this week. I can see scenarios where the RAC has a totally different order with a couple of different teams thrown in. In the end, I bounced Pacific Lutheran and Whittier. PLU because they just haven’t played anyone other than Colorado College from this list and they have no ranked wins. Their record is good but their SOS is just average. Whittier had a poor week before beating Cal Lutheran and it was almost enough for them to stay in the rankings. Now that ranked wins is considered, they just lose out to both Chapman and La Verne when I compare the criteria. Southwestern improved their record and they have a really good SOS but they’ve lost to most of the teams on this list so that’s hard to overcome (and they only have one ranked win). Whitworth also only has one ranked win and I just bounced them (PLU) from the rankings. Couple that with a low SOS and they just don’t beat anyone out.

For those tracking this at home, with this ordering, CMS would host the West Regional. With that said, I’m not sure either Chapman or La Verne gets in and if neither does then the regional will be at UMHB.

BONUS GIFT!!!!!

My readers know that there is one absolute truth in DIII volleyball and that is a team must be in the Top 10 in hitting percentage in order to win the National Championship. It has been true for the last 8 years I’ve researched and there isn’t another statistic that comes close to this streak.

So, without anymore fanfare, here are your national champion candidates:

1. JWU (RI) – 0.297

2. Baldwin Wallace – 0.273

3. Colorado College – 0.270

4. UMHB – 0.269

5. Calvin – 0.269

6. MIT – 0.267

7. Amherst – 0.258

8. William Paterson – 0.255

9. Trinity – 0.255

10. UW-Eau Claire – 0.249

Looks like Trinity is in place for the national championship now! CMS has moved up to 71^st. Chapman is actually at 14^th if they can just get in the door.