West RAC Ranking Prediction

The first public release of the RAC rankings will come out on Wednesday. Once again, I’ll try to predict the outcome only this time we can all compare the results. (Once again, I leave a little gift at the end of this post.)

[Skip this next part if you read it last week.]

As a reminder, the NCAA uses 5 criteria and they do not state if they are prioritized in any way. The criteria are:

• Win/Loss percentage (DIII opponents only)

• Head-to-Head

• Results versus common DIII opponents

• Results versus ranked opponents

• DIII Strength of Schedule (SOS)

Results versus ranked opponents means teams that are ranked by the region’s RAC. The first week there is no data to go off with this criterion so it is not used. Following the first week, the previous week’s data is used. So, if CMS is ranked in the West Region and Ramapo is ranked in the New York region week one and you beat them both then you are 2-0 on week two. (Yes, for this criterion these wins are considered equal. Brilliant!)

DIII SOS is calculated a little different for selection in that SOS is used for 2/3 of the value and the other third is your combined opponent’s SOS. I don’t have access to these numbers so I just use the normal SOS published on the NCAA site.

Here are some other soft rules I used during this process:

• I know that SOS is a bigger component to the NCAA than the other criteria so in case of ties, this won out. (The caveat to this rule is if the NCAA likes the other team better and it has a lower SOS then SOS doesn’t matter.)

• I don’t have the ability to spreadsheet every common opponent so I might have missed something here.

• Obviously, ranked results are not used here since that data doesn’t exist, yet.

[OK, back to original content.]

Here is my best guess at how the West RAC will rank the Top 8 in the West Region:

West Region Top 8 (10/16/18)

1. CMS

2. UMHB

3. Trinity

4. Colorado College

5. Pacific Lutheran

6. Cal Lutheran

7. Whittier

8. Chapman

CMS (0.857 win percentage & 0.634 SOS)

CMS dropped a match against Cal Lutheran but there is no change at the top spot this week. CMS wins the comparison battle against UMHB, Trinity and Colorado College due to head-to-head or common opponent advantages. It is interesting to note that CMS doesn’t sweep UMHB or Trinity in the criteria at this time so things are close.

UMHB (0.905 & 0.590)

UMHB got a nice bump in SOS this week despite losing to UT-Tyler. They still beat out Trinity on the back of their UT-Dallas win (who beat Trinity). It will be interesting to see if the RAC pays attention to this or not. UMHB and Colorado College split the criteria but UMHB has the SOS advantage so I think they’ll be ranked higher.

Trinity (0.818 & 0.642)

Their head-to-head over Colorado College keeps them ahead of them but, as mentioned previously, their loss to UT-Dallas keeps them behind UMHB. Trinity plays Colorado College later this week.

NOTE – Things get really confusing now that Cal Lutheran beat CMS and La Verne this past week. There are 7 teams that can claim the next 5 spots and I’m including Colorado College in this mix. There really is no team out of that 7 that has any kind of obvious advantage over the others. It’s going to come down to what the RAC values.

Colorado College (0.920 & 0.526)

I went with the Tigers here despite the low SOS. By my calculations, Colorado College is ahead of both Pacific Lutheran and Chapman and are basically tied with the rest of the teams. Here is the rub, the ties are because Colorado College has a better record while the other teams have a better SOS. If the RAC values SOS higher than record then Colorado College could be ranked as low as 7^th!

Pacific Lutheran (0.824 & 0.578)

I am not confident about this placement. I have PLU ahead of Whittier based on common opponent (Puget Sound) but it’s quite possible the RAC won’t bother with this criterion or value it. For my money, PLU still has a good record and SOS so there really isn’t a reason to drop them.

Cal Lutheran (0.571 & 0.647)

This may be too high this week for the Regals. They actually tie with Whittier but lose out to Chapman when I compare the teams. (They beat La Verne.) The tie with Whitter is due to common opponent but I’m thinking the RAC won’t consider this too heavily, which is why I have them here. Cal Lu has the best SOS of the Watch List teams and if they can add to their win total, they would be one of the easier teams to get through the selection committee.

Whittier (0.619 & 0.598)

I have them ahead of Chapman due to SOS and their head to head win. Their matchup with Chapman later today is huge and a Chapman win brings even more chaos to this ranking.

Chapman (0.810 & 0.526)

They did get a bump to their SOS which is helpful but it’s still poor (tied with Colorado College). I have them ahead of both Cal Lu and La Verne but behind Whittier. If the RAC puts Cal Lutheran in the 8^th spot then Chapman moves up one position.

Overall, I feel comfortable with these 8 teams if not the ordering. The RAC will tell us what they are valuing based on their ordering. Regardless, I just don’t see how La Verne or UT-Dallas can break through this week. As far as McMurry and Whitworth, I just don’t think they have a chance to be ranked any longer and I’m just waiting on confirmation from the RAC before I remove them from the Watch List.

For those tracking this at home, with this ordering, CMS would host the West Regional. Last week I was really discouraged about getting even 7 teams from the west into the tournament. With the Pacific Lutheran loss in the NWC, it’s now possible that Whitworth gets the NWC Pool A bid and PLU gets a Pool C bid. In that scenario, Chapman would get bumped because the west is not getting 9 teams in the tournament. But, it does mean a path to 8 West Region teams is back on the table with the week Cal Lutheran had and the events unfolding in the NWC.

BONUS GIFT!!!!!

My readers from last year (heck, last week) know that there is one absolute truth in DIII volleyball and that is a team must be in the Top 10 in hitting percentage in order to win the National Championship. It has been true for the last 8 years I’ve researched and there isn’t another statistic that comes close to this streak.

So, without anymore fanfare, here are your ONLY national champion candidates:

1. JWU (RI) – 0.296

2. Calvin – 0.277

3. MIT – 0.273

4. Colorado College – 0.273

5. Baldwin Wallace – 0.269

6. UMHB – 0.266

7. Bowdoin – 0.265

8. Amherst – 0.263

9. Johns Hopkins – 0.258

10. Springfield – 0.258

Same teams as last week just a slightly different order.