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Weekly Wrap-Up (11/3/24)
One more week until the conference tournaments. Just crazy how fast the season has gone. I am dedicating this Wrap-Up to all of the seniors out there and the senior parents that are probably realizing how close to the end they are right now. Trust me, your life will not end at the conclusion of this volleyball season. It will only seem like it.
Oh, and if you haven’t voted then make sure you carve out some time on Tuesday to get that done. Everyone has a voice and to silence yourself doesn’t seem right in any situation. Whomever wins, congratulations. May you take this country forward in a way that helps everyone.
The Wrap-Up is where we look at the was and the what and then the why and then follow it up with more was. So, let’s get to it.
“The Was” this past week. This past week had our normal articles: NPI Rankings, D3VbWest Top 25, AVCA Top 25, Players of the Week and Region Leaders. We also did a good job updating the 2024 NPI Rankings to be more daily than just a one-week thing. I also try to update on the spot in the Match Day articles when something big happens. Finally, we had two (sort of) unique articles in “What About Me?” and Regional Hosting. I enjoyed the responses to the first as I think everyone has lyrics that mean something to them. The second looked at Ricky’s thinking about who will host and also what the brackets might look like. Thank you to him for that work and I hope we might see something again this week on that.
“The What” is coming up this week. Looking forward and I have maybe the easiest week of the year. All four conferences have matches on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday and that’s it! That’s awesome! UC Santa Cruz is done until their tournament. I may add a Match Day on Wednesday and Thursday if there are important NCAA Power Index (NPI) matches nationally. Don’t hold me to that.
“The Why” we care follows.
The NCAA had their second official release of the NPI data although it was supposed to be their first. We did find an error in the game data and that was immediately corrected. The Regional Advisory Committees (RAC) are supposed to check for errors in the data but all they can really do is check team records. It’s easy for stuff to fall through the cracks and I’m glad we have Ned and the Latvians double-checking everything.
I was talking to a coach about different things and he mentioned his method on evaluating recruits. We were specifically talking about a middle but I thought that would make for a good article/podcast. Maybe something for the offseason. If there are coaches out there that would like to contribute what they look for at each position, I’d love to hear it.
It looks like the at-large cut-line will not hit 60 this season. We had a number of bubble teams this week take losses and we saw the cut-line drop over two straight days. With that said, it all comes down to the Automatic Qualifiers (AQ). Will the top NPI teams win those tournaments? If we assume that the highest NPI team is really the best team, then we should probably expect only one upset but often things go according to Hoyle. The more upsets there are in conferences tournaments, the fewer true at-large bids there are to give out. It won’t matter if UW-Whitewater “upsets” UW-Oshkosh because both are comfortable in the at-large window. It’s the conferences where someone outside the window win the tournament. When that happens, we are now giving an at-large bid to that team that should have won because they are in the window. That will raise the cut-line. Right now, we have 11 teams in the 59s and 60s range in the window. These are your bubble teams. What’s interesting is how many bubble teams are from the same conference. The UAA has two, the WIAC has two and the NEWMAC has three (7 of the 11). These teams could be playing each other in their conference tournament. Does it help at the end playing tough teams in the tournament or is better to beat good teams and then lose in the final? Something to look at after the season.
Through yesterday, here are the five biggest upsets per NPI on the year:
That Marymount upset happened this week and it’s leading by a wide margin.
The upsets (difference greater than 6 points) from this past week were:
That was a crushing late defeat for Middlebury.
Idea that would never be allowed. If we are saying that NPI determines the quality of teams then should we use it to eliminate teams who earn an AQ if they don’t hit a minimum number? We currently have two teams that are below 50 NPI. What do you say that those two spots are forfeited and we give them to additional at-large teams? The end result would ensure that teams improve their overall schedule.
Speaking of schedules, I’ve communicated with a number of coaches about their 2025 schedule. The problem everyone has, and this has always been a problem, is what teams give you the best chance to be in the running for an at-large? The simple answer is teams 50+ NPI that you can beat. Who exactly are the 50+ NPI teams next year is the problem.
You might be thinking that the elite schools don’t have a scheduling issue. In the old system, there was really no down side in playing them because a loss would still increase your Strength of Schedule (SOS). With NPI, you can say the reverse has now occurred, there is no upside to playing an elite team if you don’t think you can beat them. The 2025 schedules will be fascinating.
Low SOS teams in the at-large window: Whitworth (0.512) and Smith (0.530). We have only one low SOS team just outside the window with Gallaudet (0.518).
Idea that will never be allowed. Set a minimum SOS for at-large teams. Fixes both of the above problems.
We had an interesting situation with the Region Leaders article. I use the official NCAA Statistics through the Sunday matches for this article but it was wrong for one player (a setter). It was corrected but too late for my article. Not much I can do about that. As a setter dad, my love to all setters.
The highest NPI team in my at-large bubble is La Verne. The team just ahead of them (outside of my bubble) is NYU. Let’s see where they would be if they lose out. For La Verne, this should be pretty easy because their regular season schedule remaining isn’t that great. They would take losses to Oxy, Caltech and Whittier and then lose in the semi-final of their tournament (we’ll say Whittier, again). That would put their NPI around 57.75 and out of the at-large. Winning out the regular season but losing in the semi-final would put them at 60.11 and in good position. Losing to Whittier in the regular season final and then in the semi-final puts them at 59.53 and squarely on a bubble with a needle nearby. NYU has Hunter and Montclair State left in the regular season before a tough UAA Tournament. If they lose out and then lose to (let’s say) WashU in the first round of their tournament then they will be around 59.67. That may be enough and why they sit just outside the bubble. Bottom line, the matches remaining and who a team could lose to in their tournament will decide who is really on the bubble.
I mentioned last week that October had already exceeded the record for views for that month. Well, it turns out that it was the highest viewed month ever for the website.
I had a coach ask me about what would NPI do with 5-set wins and losses and whether we should add this to our NPI. (This parameter/dial was rejected by the Selection Committee.) Remember that changes to NPI cannot happen next year. With soccer, they count ties by looking at the win value and loss value of the match for a team and then splitting the difference. The match NPI also must count towards the team’s NPI because it contains a loss component. I’m not sure what the math would be for a 5-set win. I don’t think they would count it as a tie. Probably 75% of the win total NPI, so you get penalized a tad for stretching out the match? Would they then add in 25% of the loss NPI total? Maybe reverse that for a 5-set loss? (Remember that the NPI win/loss total is different for each team because it’s based on the opponent.) I would think the winning team wouldn’t have to count it but the losing team would. In the end, I don’t think this moves the NPI needle much. The coach was coming from the standpoint that a team that beats Team B in straight sets is probably better than another team that beat Team B in 5-sets. Probably true. Capturing that in NPI, which is a bit simplistic, is an issue.
Just had a comment in a post saying that Colby, as a regional host, isn’t the easiest to fly into. This is true and something Ricky and I had discussed this past week. He may look at it this week.
One thing that is becoming clear with NPI is that having backup wins is really helpful when you take a loss. It really deadens the pain of the loss. Teams with low SOS numbers and few good wins are at a higher risk when a loss hits.
A number of schools will be having their Senior Presentations this week. A large number have already had theirs. I’m seeing more and more schools do this after the match instead of before. I like this change but it sure makes it more important that you win that match. We are now back to “normal” with these seniors graduating. They all came in right after the pandemic so no extra year of eligibility in 2025 unless you went to Trinity. In truth, this group may have had it the worst of any recent incoming class. They had a limited to no high school or club season in 2020/2021. Because of Super Seniors, there would have been reduced opportunities both in recruitment and playing their 4-years. To go through all of that and still get their 4-years in is really quite special. To all of those seniors, I just want to say thank you. It’s been a pleasure following your careers and I know this experience better prepares you for the world. Enjoy that last semester (for those not graduating early). Take that bowling class to round out your schedule. Your parents won’t mind. Enjoy NOT playing and practicing volleyball for the first time in forever. You might find that it’s actually fun. Oh, and as I told my daughter, “Boys are evil so stay away from them until you are at least 30.” Just good advice.
“The Was” that was the conferences this week.
The ASC was done last week so nothing has changed here. LeTourneau will play Howard Payne in the first round. The winner will get the right to play ETBU. In the other semi-final it will be HSU and UMHB. The tournament will be hosted at ETBU. Only ETBU has a chance at an at-large so for everyone else it’s win or be done. This week, I’ll look at some senior leaders from each conference (stats are official but only through Thursday):
Reina Lawson (LETU) leads in Aces/Set.
Reina Lawson (LETU) leads all seniors in Assists/Set.
Grace Williamson (ETBU) leads all seniors in Blocks/Set.
Morgan Nix (LETU) leads in Digs/Set.
Avery Reid (ETBU) leads all seniors in Kill/Set.
Avery Reid (ETBU) leads all seniors in Points/Set.
UC Santa Cruz was done with conference before the season starts. Their tournament will be at Christopher Newport where they will draw the hosts. They’ve beaten them twice so they should be confident. Winner faces Salisbury/Mary Washington. UCSC does not have a chance at an at-large so get it done in the tournament. Seniors from UC Santa Cruz are:
Kelly Ann Greene leads team in Points/Set.
Ashley Magley leads team in Kills/Set.
Audrey Gilbert leads team in Aces/Set.
Vanessa Ojeikere hit 0.308 in limited time.
The NWC has nailed down its four tournament teams. I think even the seeding is figured out except for 2 and 3, which really doesn’t matter as they play each other. Whitworth will host and take the top seed. PLU and Puget Sound will figure out that 2/3 problem and George Fox will take the 4th spot and get to play Whitworth. Willamette is mathematically still in it but they lose the tiebreaker to George Fox if they make up their 2-match difference in the last 2 matches. Whitworth is the only team with a chance at an at-large. I think they can absorb a loss in the tournament and get an at-large but maybe not in the regular season AND the tournament. Here are some senior conference leaders:
Addison Hawes (GFU) leads in Aces/Set.
Kennedy Kiby (GFU) leads all seniors in Assists/Set.
Mara Murphy (Pacific) leads in Attacks/Set.
Cassidy Franklin (Whitworth) leads all seniors in Blocks/Set.
Danica Nelson (Pacific) leads in Digs/Set.
Cassidy Franklin (Whitworth) leads in Hitting Percentage.
Ella Jimenez (Whitworth) leads in Kills/Set.
Ella Jimenez (Whitworth) leads in Kills/Set.
A number of SCAC teams have 3 matches left in conference. It appears Colorado College will get the Blue Division 1 seed followed by Austin College and McMurry. Trinity should get the Gold Division 1 seed followed by TLU or Southwestern in some order. I think TLU holds the tiebreaker so they just need to win out. The two wildcard teams should be St Thomas and Schreiner with the tournament hosted by Austin College. Trinity and Southwestern are the only teams that can get an at-large. Here are the SCAC senior leaders in conference:
Annie Steger (CC) leads in Assists/Set.
Brylie Nedd (TLU) leads in Attacks/Set.
Maddie Fate (Trinity) leads all seniors in Blocks/Set.
Faith Coldewey (TLU) leads in Digs/Set.
Maddie Fate (Trinity) leads in Hitting Percentage.
Mackenzie Logan (Trinity) leads all seniors in Kills/Set.
Mackenzie Logan (Trinity) leads in Points/Set.
The SCIAC’s top spot was probably decided by that La Verne/CMS match with CMS now holding a 2-match lead. La Verne should hold off and keep the 2nd spot but it’s close between them, Whittier and then Pomona-Pitzer. Chapman holds down the 5th spot but Cal Lutheran is right behind and they do play the last day of the regular season. Chapman’s other match is against Whittier so this spot is wide open after Chapman took a loss to Caltech. Both CMS and La Verne have a chance at an at-large. I think Whittier (58.708) is just too far out at this point but go beat La Verne and I’ll double-check. Here are the senior conference leaders:
Georgia McGovern (CMS) leads in Aces/Set.
Georgia McGovern (CMS) leads in Assists/Set.
Kira Mortensen (Cal Lutheran) leads in Blocks/Set.
Dede Carranza (CMS) leads in Digs/Set.
Dani Beder (CMS) leads in Hitting Percentage.
Georgia McGovern (CMS) leads in Triple-Doubles.
Whew. Lots of good seniors and Super Seniors graduating.
That should do it for me. My reward is the Mavericks game tonight, which should be a blast. Go Luka!
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