Weekly Wrap-Up (10/23/22)

A short Weekly Wrap-Up as I’ve got limited time today after a wedding weekend.

This past week we had my Top 25 and an article on Errors/Set posted on Monday. The Errors/Set article touched on teams that are able to reduce the points they give to others and whether that translates into the elite teams. Tuesday, I had the Region X Rankings and the AVCA Top 25posted. Wednesday, had the normal Players of the Week and Region Leadersarticles, but also the first official Regional Rankings. My last article of the week (in addition to the Match Days) was a look at the teams that made the regional rankings and their criteria. We looked at the teams in trouble and those that might jump into the rankings this week. We also spent time on the very deep Region VIII. Oh, and angry D3VbWest made a brief comeback.

I don’t have Babson in my rankings but the AVCA does (or did). They just dropped three matches this weekend including one to 11-7 Williams. Despite this hit, they still look like a near lock for an at-large bid because of their criteria. Unless the selection committee really spends time on the quality of teams played and the quality of Ranked Wins, we could be looking at some very interesting (and questionable) decisions this year.

In my article from Thursday, I started thinking about regional locations. This use to be a big topic on this site when the West had regionals. With the Midwest and Great Lakes area being so deep, I just think there will be at least 3 if not 4 regionals in that area. If you put three in the New England/New York area, then you really only leave one for the South or maybe two in that mid-Atlantic region. That got me thinking about where the West teams would go. I just think sending any strong teams (like CMS) to the Midwest is rude to not only them but also all of those tough teams in that area. Back in 2015, Cal Lutheran hosted the West Regional, which was pretty deep but also had a number of top national teams. The NCAA decided to send WashU (one of the best teams nationally) to the regional, which was just ridiculous. It really showed how the NCAA tries to protect the New England Region. We can blame it on whatever rule we want but the NCAA doesn’t have a problem sending California teams to Atlanta. They only have a problem sending them to New England. I kind of seeing the same thing happening again this year. The NWC team, UC Santa Cruz and CMS will probably get moved to the Midwest with Trinity going to the South or Mid-Atlantic along with the ASC team. It just takes driving a New England team a little further down the road to put CMS or Trinity into New England. There’s been a lot of good work making the regionals more even in recent years but the National Chair has changed hands. We really don’t know what direction things will go this year.

Ned has his selection program running again this year although I’m only getting the output as he tries to port his work to a website. If we factor in Record, SOS and Ranked Record only (ignoring Common Opponent and Head-to-Head), we get these 19 at-large teams:

Wesleyan (Region I) Babson (II) Emerson (II) UW-Eau Claire (VIII) UW-Stevens Point (VIII) WashU (VIII) UW-Oshkosh (VIII) Springfield (II) New Paltz (III) Augsburg (IX) Chicago (VIII) Carnegie Mellon (VII) Hope (VII) Scranton (V) Smith (II) Case Western (VII) Emory (VI) Mary Washington (VI)

Millikin would have been the next team chosen, if a bid was available.

You have to take all of this with a grain of salt because we are using limited criteria and not using Ranked Results correctly. But what this shows is a basis of the criteria for each team and which has a good base to operate from for selection. This list has 5 New England teams, which will not happen but it shows how three is going to be pretty easy if the committee wants to do that. Their criteria break down if you look at the teams they’ve played, but who’s to say the selection committee will do that. New Paltz being selected so early was shocking to me. Based on the last QWI information, here is what they have:

17-2, 0.534 SOS, 2-2 Ranked Record

They have a third loss from this weekend (Cortland). They really don’t have a good win but it shows when you look at numbers only what can happen.

We have a match every day this week except tomorrow. This is the final week of the regular season with the exception of the NWC who don’t hold a tournament. Let’s take a look at the conferences with this in mind.

The ASC Tournament will be at UT-Dallas as they have already earned the top spot in conference. Five other spots remain and most teams have played 13 or 14 conference matches in a league where you get 16. UMHB sits in second a match up on ETBU and HSU. If you remember, they had bus problems on their way to Sul Ross and I don’t see this match on the schedule so only 15 matches for these two teams. That leaves just Concordia at home for UMHB. A win clinches the 2^nd seed but a loss means they could drop up to two spots. ETBU will travel to Abilene to play HSU and McMurry. Both teams will be tough at home and both are playing for a tournament spot. HSU will also play at UT-Dallas this week so that looks like a tough task. The other 6 loss team is LeTourneau who have McMurry at home and then HPU and Sul Ross State on the road. If you assume the HPU match is a win then they are tied with HSU and ETBU. If just looking at these three teams, you’d have to think LETU has the best chance to run the table factoring in opponent and playing site. The two 7-7 teams fighting for one spot are Concordia and McMurry. Concordia has HPU at home in addition to that UMHB match. McMurry has the matches mentioned above, away to LETU and home against ETBU. You have to give the edge to Concordia looking at these matches. I could also see McMurry tying ETBU or HSU depending on that HSU/ETBU result. So, it’s close but those are the 7 teams fighting for 6 spots. I’m thinking McMurry will just miss out when the week is done.

There is a four-way tie for the NWC lead and the tiebreaker (I think) goes to Whitworth (8-4) right now. As I understand it, the best match record between the tied teams wins. It then would go to set record against the tied teams. The teams are, Whitworth, George Fox, Puget Sound and Willamette. Pacific Lutheran is just one match back while Pacific is two matches back. Looking forward, I can see Whitworth going 3-1 or even 4-0 as they have a favorable schedule and play their toughest opponent (GFU) at home. GFU has three away matches left including Whitworth and Willamette. Puget Sound looks like they could go 3-1 as they get Willamette at home but have to play rival PLU away. Willamette has the toughest remaining schedule with Puget Sound away, PLU away and home against GFU. Honestly, sometimes in this situation, you want the toughest schedule. Win out and they help themselves while hurting their main competition. I will say this to all teams in the NWC, it’s not only important to win the matches coming up but to win them in three. That’s not because I want my sleep. I do. But this could come down to the second tiebreaker (sets). PLU is one match back so it seems bleak but they do play Willamette, Puget Sound and George Fox. They would need help from Whitworth but win all four and they are in this thing. Pacific (6-6), Whitman, Linfield and Lewis & Clark are just too far back with too many teams ahead right now so it’s the spoiler role for them.

The SCAC Tournament will be hosted by Colorado College but the last pods are hosted by TLU and Dallas with TLU getting the main players. Trinity will be the #1 seed and should be counted as an automatic loss at this point to whomever is playing them. Sitting in second are TLU and Southwestern at 10-3 with Southwestern holding the tiebreaker. Colorado College is at 8-4 and in fourth. St Thomas is fifth and Austin College is sixth with Schreiner having a bunch of matches left but no real chance to crash the conference tournament. Southwestern has Colorado College, Trinity and Schreiner left on the schedule. Win the CC match and don’t blow the Schreiner match probably gets them second. TLU has the same teams on the schedule but need Southwestern to stumble. CC has Southwestern, TLU, Schreiner and St Thomas on the schedule left. In truth, anything could happen between these teams but all of the CC matches will have direct impacts on seeding. Of course, if TLU or Southwestern can steal a match from Trinity, then they will be playing with house money at that point. St Thomas and Austin College are battling for the 5^th and 6^th seed. St Thomas has a tougher schedule but an extra match and a 1 ½ match lead. Still, I’m thinking these two will go to a tiebreaker.

The SCIAC have their four teams for their tournament in CMS, Cal Lutheran, La Verne and Pomona-Pitzer. It’s only a matter of who gets to avoid CMS in that first round. It should be pointed out that the SCIAC hasn’t awarded the Caltech cancelled match to their win record. With Oxy and Redlands still on the schedule, I don’t think it will matter as they should get the second seed. La Verne is a half match up on Pomona-Pitzer but have two losses to them. They also have CMS and Cal Lu on the schedule. Pomona-Pitzer has home matches to Chapman and Caltech so you’d have to think the third seed is going to be theirs. The rest of the teams will have to play spoiler as there is a 3-match difference to Whittier who sit in 5^th.

Alright, the last week is here where the stress level is only at a 100. Then we get tournament weekend where we go to 1000. (You’d have to say this year that the NWC is also playing in a tournament.) You then get the NCAA Tournament where we go to a million. Enjoy it all, folks!