Weekly Wrap-Up (10/22/2023)

Time for the Weekly Wrap-Up where I pontificate on whatever is on my mind while doing my best to cover our four conferences with a side of Banna Slugs for the extra hungry. This past week we had our normal articles but I also threw in a Region X Ranking and, this morning, an article on Scheduling Smarter. For the week upcoming, it’s going to be big folks, especially if you are a SCAC fan. I’m not sure where I read this, but it had to be from a brilliant writer, but the phrase of the year is “The SCAC is Wack!” We will have matches every day except for Monday as the SCAC is playing on 5 of those days and we should have a very good idea on who that 6^th team in their tournament will be.

The big matches of the week look to be:

• UT-Dallas at Mary Hardin Baylor (ASC on Friday)

• Whitworth at Pacific Lutheran (NWC on Saturday)

• Southwestern at Austin College (SCAC on Saturday)

• CMS at La Verne (SCIAC on Tuesday)

UC Santa Cruz just has one match left on their regular season schedule and that is with Feather River College (non-DIII) on Saturday. I probably wouldn’t even mention it except it will be their senior day. UCSC will then be off for 2-weeks while they wait for the C2C Tournament. Back to the big matches and that UTD/UMHB might be the last best chance for ETBU to pass UMHB in the standings. I do think UMHB takes this at home as they try to lock down the hosting gig to the ASC Tournament. I think the Whitworth/PLU match will be an opportunity for PLU to clinch the top spot in their conference and secure their hosting gig. Whitworth has a tough match the day before at Puget Sound and may be three matches back at that point with three to play. If Whitworth beats UPS, then they will be 2 matches back with a win against PLU taking them 1 back. PLU still has George Fox away the following week so nothing is secure. If PLU wins (and takes their win against Whitman the previous day) then they lock down the NWC and hosting responsibilities for their conference. The only big match that doesn’t impact the top of the standings that I have is Southwestern/Austin College. These teams are tied in wins and this game could decide who gets the last spot in the SCAC Tournament. Both teams are playing really well right now so it should be a good one. Our final match isn’t that important in the grand scheme of things but it’s probably our best match in terms of quality in the region. CMS is going to take the top spot in the SCIAC but La Verne really needs this match if they want to boost their at-large chances. I’m sure it’s also important to see how they play against the Athenas for their confidence as they head into the tournament. I’ll get more into the conferences below but now let’s dive into my warped mind a bit.

The UAA is playing today. No sure when this article will get published but there are some good matches. Here is the link to their streams. At 11:00 am Central Carnegie Mellon and Case Western Reserve will play. At 1:00 pm, NYU plays Carnegie Mellon with the big match being at 2 pm when WashU plays Emory. Right now, Emory, CWRU and WashU are tied at 4-1 in conference. (Update: This was wrong. Emory is undefeated and now 2 wins ahead.)

I dropped an article I wrote earlier in the week about smart scheduling. It’s basically a concept of finding teams nationally that may have better records than maybe they’ve earned based on weaker schedules then looking to see who might repeat this feat next year. The concept is that these might be interesting scheduling choices for the 2025 season. Yeah, we still have 2024 to worry about but scheduling happens early especially for the top programs. The teams that appear in my final filtered list tend to be more plentiful in the northeast and I’ve always wondered if this type of exercise is done by the top teams out there. I’m not being critical because I certainly would do it if I coached in those regions. Now, I’d still try to get my Athletic Director to fly me out to a top tournament nationally but I’m crazy like that. I just think playing top talent makes your team better for what you ultimately will play in the NCAA Tournament.

Whoa. That got me to thinking of something that I probably have touched on in the past but will go deeper here and that is preparing for what you ultimately will face. Sure, I’ve gone down this rabbit hole with scheduling. I don’t believe you are doing your program any good by scheduling weak teams. You don’t make your players better/tougher, you don’t make your team better/tougher and you have no concept of what it will take to beat a team that is of a quality you’ve never faced. (You also give them no chance for All-American status unless they win your conference’s player of the year.) What I’m talking about here, however, is about the team setup or lineup. Back in my daughter’s playing days we would have cases where we had a primary setter (who was outstanding) but was on the short side. This is a very common occurrence in our division. My daughter wasn’t as good but was taller with long arms. My silent question at the time (for 2 of her 4 years) was what gives us the best chance to win against the very top teams that we hope to be playing? When we played weaker teams, they normally couldn’t take advantage of a shorter setter but that was not the case against stronger teams with outstanding coaches. The lineup would have to change, going from a 6-1 to a 5-2 or even a 6-2. So, my silent question was why don’t we play the lineup that we know we have to play when it counts all of the time as opposed to only when needed? Maybe the same thing comes up with an outside that struggles in the service receive. Or an outside that can power her way through weaker blocks but struggles against good blocks. Maybe it happens with a middle whose strength is blocking and not hitting (or vice versa). Maybe you have a DS that handles the tough serves better than the rest of your team but overall isn’t as solid against easier serves. Does the smart coach pick and choose their spots thinking that putting your best lineup up against each team is the way to go or do they default to the lineup they ultimately need in order to get those players better and use to game situations? Maybe if you don’t pick and choose, you lose a match you should have won and maybe that match is the difference in making the NCAA Tournament or not? Maybe by not playing the lineup you need; the spot players aren’t fully prepared to give their best in the most important matches you play? I am confident a number of players and parents have gone down this rabbit hole and I’m sure depending on the playing time of a particular student-athlete will cloud your opinion on this topic. (Oh, I don’t have the right answer. My clouded opinion is that you better make the lineup you ultimately need be 100% ready when you need them. If it ultimately cost you a chance to get there then you weren’t good enough in the first place. Oh look. I did have the right answer.)

I’m not going on another AVCA rant about their Player of the Week but it went to a first-year this week from Bridgewater who beat teams that are 9-14, 12-12 and 16-7. I simply don’t understand the logic. Maybe the AVCA Player of the Year should only go to a player that won Player of the Week during the season? It would make that selection easier and we could get rid of pretenders like Ashley Kopp (UW-Stevens Point), Georgia McGovern (CMS), Jenna Holmes (CMS), Mya Ray (La Verne), Addie VanderWeide (Hope), Mackenzie Coley (Juniata), Olivia Foley (Juniata), Riley Kindt (UW-Oshkosh) and Sami Perlberg (US-Oshkosh).

Speaking of Player of the Year, still no sighting of Annie Lockett (Hope). I had heard from someone who saw her in person a couple of weeks back that she didn’t look like a player that was almost ready to return. This could be a lost year for her and a big blow to a Hope team that might be the best in the nation with her healthy.

I watched the end of Wisconsin at Nebraska last night. It’s just incredible to see that level of talent on the floor from both sides. What a fun sport we all love.

I like to throw in Top 11 of Hitting Percentage because that’s still the tell for our ultimately national champion.

I think we can discard Eastern Nazarene, Maine Maritime and Covenant. Whoa. Wait. Covenant! They just beat Emory. Let’s keep them in there. UW-Oshkosh is 0.003 percentage points back and I’m really hoping I don’t have to change this to “Top 13 always win the national championship”. I mean, I’m actually pulling for UWO but I just need them to start hitting a little more efficiently (or start playing weaker teams).

I always love the team that comes out of no where and does well and this year we have Covenant. Covenant is out of the Collegiate Conference of the South and they don’t have an automatic qualifier so they (like everyone else in their conference) are considered an independent. Independents have one Pool B bid allocated to them this year for the NCAA Tournament and the thinking is that it will go to the CCS Tournament winner but, my guess, is that Covenant can still trip up in their tournament and take that bid. Covenant is currently 24-1 and undefeated in conference. They beat our ETBU the first week at Emory and their only loss is to Transylvania in 5-sets. Total Points in that match was 80 to 79 so it was close. Interesting to note, also in that match, is that Covenant had 19 Total Blocks! They are 12 in Blocks/Set nationally, a leader in Hitting Percentage and 4^th nationally in Opponents Hitting Percentage. Why haven’t they been ranked? Well, until recently that ETBU win was their best one. On Friday they took down Emory in 4-sets and had 13 Total Blocks. They will get Berry on Friday but do not have much else on their schedule after that. As of last week, their selection criteria SOS was estimated to be 0.478. What happens if the NCAA gives the Pool B to someone else? Covenant would be eligible for a Pool C (at-large) bid. It would be interesting to see how that SOS played in those comparisons. Covenant is basically like Mary Hardin-Baylor this year but they now have a skin on the wall and have a chance for a second.

Speaking of Covenant, they have show us what their ceiling is, right? They can play at Emory’s level. That SOS and record tells us very little without that win. Basically, we know that they are the best of a ton of teams that are in the middle of the pack. Throw in Emory and even ETBU and you raise their ceiling to a point where they deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament. The problem with that argument is that ceiling/floor is not a selection criterion although, if used properly, Ranked Results should allow for it.

I mentioned this in the Match Day yesterday but how do 4 referees miss an obvious hit into the antenna. Schreiner did this at 24-24 in set one against Austin College and no one saw it. Credit to Austin College for shaking it off after it led to losing the first set and coming back to win in 4-sets.

My Rangers will either be eliminated this week or I’ll be crowing about being in the World Series this time next week. Such a fun ride this year after being bad for so long. I wish we had a bullpen but the future is bright with this team. I honestly want to beat the Astros in the next two more than I want to win a World Series.

Decker Update! He is still freaking cute.

Looking at the regional rankings I did, I think we can assume that Trinity and CMS will win their tournaments. Sure, it may not happen, but let’s go with it. That would leave La Verne as the most likely first team up when at-large bids get discussed. They have a good record although we can assume that two more losses, at least, are coming there way due to CMS. Their SOS was 0.540 as of last week and that shouldn’t change too much. Colorado College had those types of numbers a couple of years back and got in with them. QWI has their predicted Ranked Record to be 4-2. Add two more losses due to CMS. They get Pomona-Pitzer on Saturday who could get ranked so that is an important win if they can get it. As is winning the SCIAC semi-final (probably against Pomona-Pitzer again). With all of that, I don’t think they are an automatic in. I think it will be a struggle but shutting out the West probably doesn’t happen. I really don’t see another team from the West getting an at-large bid, unfortunately. We’ll know more when the official rankings come out next week and even more the following week. With all of that said, that means Region X gets only 5 teams into the NCAA Tournament. If you let CMS host, it would mean 6 flights dedicated just to our region so that will not happen. That means our 5 teams get sprayed out to the 8 regionals. CMS and La Verne won’t make it past Ohio due to the super-secret don’t fly a team 3 time zones unless it’s to Emory and then it’s okay because they are not a New England team rule. That puts them up against Oshkosh or Hope or Whitewater or Northwestern or maybe multiples of them in a regional. Same is true for the NWC champion but they also have to watch out for CMS and La Verne, too. I could see Emory getting a regional and Trinity and the ASC champion heading that way. If we are lucky, maybe only the ASC champion goes and Trinity once again gets to head to the New York/New Jersey area and fend off just one really good team. A lot depends on where that 8^th regional gets placed. The further west it goes, the better I like our chances because it spreads out the really good teams.

Don’t let anyone know you read this here but the East/West Challenge needs to do some tweaking. I love Cal Lutheran but they have struggled in that tournament and I think with La Verne on the rise, they need to be the replacement. I don’t think we would be having any “does La Verne get an at-large bid” discussions if they had been in that tournament this year.

Let me get to the conferences or I’ll be here all day. As always, let’s start with the ASC. UMHB and ETBU each have one loss. I think this hosting gig is maybe the most important one to be decided in our region as I can really see the host winning the tournament. It also allows them to avoid UT-Dallas. UMHB has only Concordia and UT-Dallas left while ETBU has HPU, HSU and McMurry all at home. I don’t see ETBU losing any of those matches so the hosting gig really comes down to UTD/UMHB. A wrench in the whole avoiding UT-Dallas thing is that UTD/LETU match on Halloween. LETU could still get the third seed. Of course, if that happens then avoiding UT-Dallas may not be such a big deal. Howard Payne hasn’t clinched a spot in the conference tournament but they have. They have 4 wins but McMurry can get to five. Still, that won’t happen so it’s really all about seeding this week and next. Looking at best performances and this week I’ll try something new. You need 5 Kills/Set, 11 Assists/Set, 2 Blocks/Set, 2 Aces/Set, 6 Digs/Set or 6 Points/Set to be mentioned. Let’s see what that does with the lists (although I’m sure I’ll still miss someone).

• Graycee Mosley (ETBU) who had 25 kills, 5 assists (?) and 18 digs in their 4-set win over LETU.

• Erin Rogers (UTD) who had 19 kills in their 3-set loss to Austin College.

• Morgan Nix (LETU) had 18 digs in their sweep over Sul Ross State.

• Isabella Martinez (CTX) had 26 digs in their 4-set loss to HSU.

• Gabby Jones (HSU) had 20 kills and hit 0.606 in their 4-set win over CTX.

• Kat Martinez (HSU) had 29 digs in their 4-set win over CTX.

• Isabella Martinez (CTX) had 25 digs in their 3-set loss to McMurry.

• Reina Lawson (LETU) had 50 assists and 14 digs in their 4-set win over HPU.

Not sure that’s any better but the liberos get some love this week. I need to cap the sets at 4 so as to not penalize the 5-set matches because they are shorter.

UC Santa Cruz went to Hope for their tournament where they played three excellent teams in Hope, Calvin and Millikin. They lost all three but played really well at times. No one passed my performance criteria but Peyton Tazelaar had a nice weekend getting 37 kills across the three matches. For the record, UCSC will need to win their conference tournament to get a bid for the NCAA Tournament.

Over in the NWC, we have 5 teams competing for 6 spots in their tournament. As I wrote above, PLU can clinch the hosting gig with wins this weekend. Whitworth is 2 losses back and George Fox is 3 losses back. They should finish second and third and face off in the tournament. Puget Sound and Willamette are fighting for that last spot with UPS one win up currently but Willamette holds the tiebreaker. Puget Sound has Whitworth and Whitman at home and Willamette and Pacific away. Willamette has Puget Sound at home but three road matches (Lewis & Clark, Pacific and George Fox). To me, this looks like Puget Sound but if they drop that Willamette match (and all hope of the tiebreaker) then things could get interesting. Here are your top performers:

• Halle Hetzler (PLU) had 7 assists and 37 digs in their 5-set win over UPS.

• Olivia Evaro (PLU) had 53 assists and 17 digs in their 5-set win over UPS.

• Katelyn Chekian (UPS) had 19 kills, 22 Points and 13 digs in their 5-set loss to PLU.

• Logan Winn (UPS) had 51 assists in their 5-set loss to PLU.

• Sara Olsson (UPS) had 20 kills and 21 Points in their 4-set win over L&C.

• Paige Wilson (Linfield) had 28 digs in their 5-set loss to Willamette.

• Shyla Sato (Willamette) had 30 digs in their 5-set win over Linfield.

• Olivia Cadien (Willamette) had 19 kills and 13 digs in their 5-set win over Linfield.

• Katie Shimaura (L&C) had 32 digs in their 4-set win over Linfield.

• Annika Traxler (L&C) had 9 kills, 6 aces and 21 digs in their 4-set win over Linfield.

• Shyla Sato (Willamette) had 24 digs in their 3-set loss to PLU.

• Halle Hetzler (PLU) had 17 digs in their sweep over Willamette.

• Olivia Evaro (PLU) had 33 assists and 13 digs in their sweep over Willamette.

Yup. This system isn’t great but love to the setters is never a bad thing. Hitters will just have to cry for the week, it seems.

The SCAC, with their pod scheduling, is just all over the place with respect to matches played. You need 16 to finish the season and Colorado College have played 14 while Austin College and TLU have played 11. Trinity has locked down the number 1 see in the conference tournament, which will be played at Southwestern regardless if the Pirates make the tournament. The top two teams get a by in the tournament and CC holds that second spot right now although they do not have the tiebreaker against TLU who might pass them up. CC only has Schreiner and Trinity left to play and neither will be easy and these matches will be at Schreiner. TLU still has 5 matches left (Southwestern, Centenary, Austin College, Dallas and St Thomas). No CC or Trinity in that list so overtaking CC is very possible. What’s funny is that whomever gets the third seed will draw either Austin College or Southwestern (at home). Both teams have been playing better so locking up the 2^nd seed is important. Speaking of that position, Austin College has Southwestern, TLU, St Thomas, Centenary and Dallas left to play. They are at 4 wins and you assume up to 6 is easy. The matches with those first three teams are probably all toss-ups. Southwestern also has 4 wins but one less match to play with TLU, Austin College, Centenary and Dallas. So, they are really at 6 wins (man, can Dallas or Centenary really play spoiler). Let’s say they lose to TLU but beat Austin College. AC would have to get to 8 wins at that point so they would have to beat both TLU and St Thomas. I see St Thomas getting to 9 wins so they are safe in my mind. Schreiner is interesting because they are at 8 wins but have to play Trinity twice and Colorado College once. They may be done at 8 wins. If Southwestern wins out they are at 8 wins but don’t have the tiebreaker with Schreiner. If Austin College also gets to 8 then you have a three-way tie for two spots. I have all of the Conference Tiebreakers on the left side menu. In this case, all three teams would tie the first tiebreaker as Southwestern beat Austin College twice (for this to work), Austin College beat Schreiner twice and Schreiner beat Southwestern twice. The next tiebreaker is record against highest finishing team in the standings. Oddly, I think that would then go to Southwestern because they would have had to have beaten TLU twice. Then Austin College gets the 6^th spot because it then goes to a two-way tie and AC has the tiebreaker on Schreiner. That’s not going to happen but I guess the message to Schreiner is that you are not done, yet. Top performers:

• Laynie Kovacs (Austin) had 3 assists, 2 aces and 22 digs in their sweep over UTD.

• Kara Spice (St Thomas) had 5 assists, 3 aces and 27 digs in their 4-set win over Huston-Tillotson.

• Claire Romo and Annika Flora (Southwestern) combined for 53 assists in their 4-set win over TLU.

• Izzy Lipacis (CC) had 17 kills and 29 digs in their 5-set win over Austin College.

• Mackenzie Logan (Trinity) had 18 kills hitting 0.548 in their sweep over Dallas.

• Brooke Byer (Schreiner) had 8 kills and 19 digs in their sweep over Centenary.

• Mackenzie Logan (Trinity) had 21 kills in their 5-set win over Austin College.

• Laynie Kovacs (Austin) had 7 assists and 36 digs in their 5-set loss to Trinity.

• Jenny Jenks (CC) had 29 assists, 6 aces and 5 digs in their sweep over Centenary.

• Cassie Dyoub (Dallas) had 24 kills hitting 0.357 and 20 digs in their 5-set loss to Schreiner.

• Annika Flora (Southwestern) had 5 kills, 16 assists and 24 digs in their 5-set loss to ETBU.

• Meghan Gannon (CC) had 7 assists and 19 digs in their sweep over Dallas.

• Laynie Kovacs (Austin) had 5 assists and 26 digs in their 4-set win over Schreiner.

• Ava Alvarado (Dallas) had 3 kills hitting 0.500 and 33 assists in their sweep over Centenary.

And now to the SCIAC where we have CMS going to La Verne this week. CMS holds a 2-loss advantage so La Verne would have to win big and hope CMS loses at least one more time to even have a chance at the top spot. I don’t see that happening. La Verne is actually just a half match ahead of Pomona-Pitzer without the tiebreaker so that is probably the concern. The real fun is for the final spot between Whittier and Cal Lutheran. Whittier has a 2-loss advantage but have played 2 less matches. Looking at the schedule, CLU will probably finish at 8-8 with wins over Oxy and Redlands. I see a path for Whittier to get to 9 wins if they beat Chapman, Oxy and Redlands. They could beat Pomona-Pitzer at home, too. That Chapman match is on Tuesday so if Chapman pulls off the surprise, then things get really tight and we’ll be looking at tiebreakers next week. (CLU and Whittier split their two matches.) Kind of cool that Oxy and Redlands can play spoiler to both teams. Top performers (or should I say top liberos and setters?):

• Lali Makaiwi (Redlands) had 8 assists and 22 digs in their sweep over Oxy.

• Kaegen Wherry (Redlands) had 19 kills hitting 0.326 and 11 digs in their sweep over Oxy.

• Paige Wilson (PP) had 7 kills and 30 digs in their 4-set win over Chapman.

• Mya Ray (La Verne) had 18 kills hitting 0.444 with 10 digs in their sweep over Caltech.

• Malia Capistrano (La Verne) had 38 assists in their sweep over Caltech.

• Sophia Parker (Caltech) had 15 kills in their 3-set loss to La Verne.

• Mya Ray (La Verne) had 21 kills and 11 digs in their sweep over Chapman.

• Malia Capistrano (La Verne) had 40 assists and 11 digs in their sweep over Chapman.

• Georgia McGovern (CMS) had 4 kills and 38 assists in their sweep over Redlands.

• Sadie Peete (CLU) had 6 kills and 9 aces in their sweep over Caltech.

• Amy Buffini (CLU) had 26 digs in their 4-set loss to Chapman.

• Clara Cronin (Chapman) had 7 assists and 28 digs in their 4-set win over CLU.

• Gabby Carbonel (Chapman) had 3 kills hitting 0.500, 46 assists and 28 digs in their 4-set win over CLU.

• Georgia McGovern (CMS) had 6 kills hitting 0.667, 36 assists and 3 aces in their sweep over PP.

• Mya Ray (La Verne) had 15 kills hitting 0.407 in their sweep over Oxy.

• Malia Capistrano (La Verne) had 33 assists in their sweep over Oxy.

Yeah, this system really glosses over outsides and middles. Oh well, next week I’ll do something different. I will say Mya Ray has a chance at AVCA Player of the Week. She had a ton of stats this week and they were all against teams at the bottom of the standings and the AVCA loves that. I am so going to take credit for this and laugh at the AVCA when it happens. (Although Mya is pretty much deserving of the award every week.)

Over in the UAA, Carnegie Mellon swept CWRU so that will be it for them in my Top 25. Springfield is also going to be out. Cornell has been doing better of late, I think. Covenant will be coming in. NYU is playing Carnegie Mellon and are in the first set. WashU/Emory to come and I may try to watch that one. What else? I hope the liberos and setters of the world liked the top performers this week. That wasn’t planned. Sorry to my middles. I am eyeballing that Austin College/Southwestern match on Saturday. Nothing on the calendar right now but I will be hoping the Rangers have a game on that day. Ugh. Let’s beat those Astros tonight. Have I mentioned how much I hate them. I also hate Houston. I also hate everyone in Houston. I don’t think my in-laws read this so I can say that. I was married in Houston so there was one good thing that happened there. I’m rambling…until next week.