.png)
Weekly Wrap-Up (10/10/21)
Getting a head start on this article as I’m starting to write it on Saturday. I think I promised an ASC mid-season review but I didn’t get to it. Busy week and then I started thinking that I’d have to do that for each conference. So, never mind. (Side note – This paragraph ended up being the only thing I wrote on Saturday.)
It felt like a busy week so let’s look back at what you may have missed. The D3VbWest Top 25came out Monday and I got the Points/Set Standings out the next day. Tuesday ended up being a little busy as the AVCA came out with their Top 25 and then the NCAA released their Pre-Championship Manual. I should note that the manual linked in the article has been updated correcting the Pool B issue. I updated the manual in theFAQ page and not the article. Wednesday means Player of the Week and Thursday means quickly publish everything that I forgot; National Review and Region X Rankings. I’m trying to convey the difficulty of using the selection criteria in the Region X Rankings article. Oh, there is additional information about the teams I’m considering in the Watch List. Other than the Match Day articles, that was it. I guess it wasn’t very busy. Ugh. (Oh, and Ricky Nelson is now arguing with me in the comments section of the Saturday Match Day article.) OH!!!! I forgot I also did Region Leaders. It was a busy week!
Some stuff that I wrote down during the week that I wanted to mention here although I may have mentioned them in the Match Day articles, too.
Long-time DIII fans know that Northwestern-St. Paul calls their touches. Not something I’m a fan of personally but they do it even when it means it costs them a set or even a match. It came into play at the end of set three against Wartburg where they corrected the referee, which resulted in a set three win for Wartburg. My issues with it are that sometimes you don’t realize you touched a ball and there is a slew of other calls that could use the same consideration. In fact, in that same match, there was a weird violation of the serving rule that the referee allowed but Northwestern didn’t correct. I respect that Northwestern does this and are consistent with touch calls but no way am I on board with it.
I did want to talk a bit about the Trinity trip to the four New England schools this weekend. It’s something I have written about in the past on how West Region schools should consider it because you are more likely to end up with wins in Ranked Results because the region (now regions) ranks more teams. (“Ranked Results” is a selection criterion.) If you also believe that the schools in the region are traditionally weaker than they are perceived by the selection committee then it’s also a chance to raise your visibility because I guarantee you the selection committee will not change their opinion. (Not their fault, the selection criteria are biased towards larger regions in my mind.) So, while it was neat to see Trinity do this, it wasn’t the ideal team to benefit from the trip in the way I had written about it. Trinity is pretty secure in their place this season as far as the NCAA Tournament is concerned although I don’t see them losing the SCAC Tournament and gaining the Pool A bid. Now that the trip is done, let’s check the fallout. It was really interesting that the two easier teams (Babson and MIT) Trinity faced were both ranked. It was the unranked teams in Endicott and Tufts that went 5-sets with Tufts winning. Again, for Trinity, no issues. They probably will go 3-1 in Ranked Results and get a huge boost in their SOS. Tufts may have just earned a golden ticket to an at-large bid if they don’t win their conference with that win. We have to see where they get regionally ranked but that’s a significant win for them. As for the loss picked up by the other three teams, no real damage done. They all will improve their SOS just by playing Trinity. Endicott would later beat Babson so I think the combination of the losses will drop Babson from the rankings. In my mind, maybe MIT didn’t show enough to be ranked higher than the 20s and I will definitely be looking at their schedule again tomorrow. As for region perception, at least in my case, I came away with a more favorable view of New England. Credit to Trinity for making that trip and I hope it spurs the New England teams to head West at some point (or anywhere). One final thing I mentioned in a Match Day is that Trinity was without their two starting middles for this trip. I do think that was the difference between a 3-1 trip and a 4-0 trip but I certainly can’t say who the other 4 teams were missing. (To be clear, I thought the two middles that Trinity played were very good, which is a credit to their depth, but they didn’t get the swings Funk and Ellis would have gotten. I also think that Tufts’ outside wouldn’t have had as much success and when you only need 2 extra points I think it would have been enough. Don’t hate me, Trinity. Wait, hate me. You’re Trinity.)
I mentioned the Pre-Championship Manual above and one of the biggest surprises was that the entire C2C Conference was placed in Region VI. That means UC Santa Cruz and Mills College count towards their numbers and not Region X (the region where they are located). This also means that in the calculation to determine how many teams a region ranks, it will drop Region X from 8 teams down to 7. In normal years, this is a huge disadvantage. (Side note, I added a question to the FAQ with the answer pointing to the document that breaks out each region and the number of teams they will rank.) In summary, here is the breakdown;
Region I ranks 9
Region II ranks 7
Region III ranks 8
Region IV ranks 7
Region V ranks 9
Region VI ranks 10
Region VII ranks 10
Region VIII ranks 10
Region IX ranks 8
Region X ranks 7
Now, I said “normal” year above because our region does catch a bit of a break because UCSC is really good this year and will be regionally ranked in Region VI. Only CMS has beaten UCSC and they don’t need the Ranked Results help but it’s good that it’s there. It’s also kind of cool because at some point it’s possible that two regions will be fighting for a West Coast team to get an at-large bid at the same time. Moving forward, I will only be ranking 7 teams in my Region X Rankings and will remove UCSC from the equation.
I had written articles about the realignment in the past and how it would benefit greatly the larger regions. For instance, the New England Region ranked 11 teams in 2019. They now, between Region I and Region II, will rank 16 teams. More regionally ranked teams mean worse teams ranked and means more opportunities for teams to pickup wins in the Ranked Results selection criterion. I’m to the point now that the NWC teams (for instance) with at-large hopes should just go to these larger split up regions and play instead of heading down to California. It will make it harder for the Region X RAC to rank our teams but you are much more likely to come away with better Ranked Results, better records (maybe) and better SOS (definitely).
One more point on this realignment as it relates to regionally ranking teams. In 2019, there were 72 teams regionally ranked. There will be 85 this season. Most of the gains will be in the northeast part of the country – primarily New England and New York. We have never had a single team from either the New England or New York Regions win the DIII National Championship.
One more item about the Pre-Championship Manual is that they corrected the mistake that showed 2 bids being reserved for independent teams (Pool B). It’s now listed at 0 with Pool C (at-large teams) getting 20 bids (up from 18 in the previous version).
Johns Hopkins is the #1 team in the nation per the AVCA and are 19-0. They are the defending national champions from 2019 and are currently on a 54-match winning streak. The DIII record is 60 and the Blue Jays have an excellent chance of breaking the record. This is despite missing Simone Bliss (injured) who is one of the Blue Jays best players in addition to being one of the best players in the nation.
Weird box score from the week. Pomona-Pitzer swept Occidental and the Sagehens were credited with 17 solo blocks. No block assists. First off, you can’t do that. The scorer is not good enough to determine on the fly who actually blocked the ball and, oh by the way, sometimes it goes off both blockers! Regardless, 17 blocks in a 3-set match are impressive. Grace Fan was credited 8 solo blocks! It should be pointed out that Grace went to my high school. Go University Warriors Wildcats!
In what has to be the biggest upset of the year in our region, St Thomas took down Colorado College in 5-sets and I don’t believe the match exists on video outside of what the two coaches setup. CC jumped out to an easy two set lead 25-10 and 25-17 before St Thomas came back to take the last 3-sets 25-21, 25-22 and 15-13. Points/Set were in CC’s favor 14.6 to 12.4 but they still lost. From the box score, Georgia Mullins had a nice match hitting 0.432 with 18 kills but there were just too many errors from the other hitters. CC also had 15 service errors including 2 in set five. The match was tied at 13-13 in the fifth before a St Thomas kill (Trinity Atkins) and then a block by Paige Havel and Alyssa Ajlouny. (If this had been the Occidental scorer, Paige would have a solo block despite having no clue who actually touched it.) I can just image the chaos from the St Thomas team on the floor and the bench. I’m sure the coaches probably lost it, as well. Okay, I just realized I don’t follow UST Volleyball on IG and there is a clip in their story of the winning point! Yes, everyone lost it, and it was actually Alyssa with the block! Still, Oxy gave it to Paige.
Not breaking out individual performances today but Bailey LeBreton had 10 total blocks in the George Fox 4-set win over Linfield. I mean, no Grace Fan, but I do love the double-digit blocks!
One of the stranger stats earlier in the year were the number of triple-doubles (double-digit number in three categories) put up by Cedar Crest Ava Grapsy. She had 11 in her first 11 matches. Since that time, their team is now winning in straight sets and that has stopped her run but she is the nation’s leader right now. The next two are from Region X. Sophie Srivastava (Chapman) currently has 7 while Annika Canaba (Sul Ross State) currently has 5 (although she is listed with 4). It will be interesting to see this race the rest of the way in Region X and whether either can catch Grapsy.
Time to look at the conferences and since most are half-way through their conference schedule, I’ll try to focus on that in lieu of separate articles.
Every team in the ASC is over the half-way point in their conference season. Mary Hardin-Baylor has 3 ½ match lead on second place UT-Dallas with a head-to-head away win. The ASC Tournament will have 6-teams qualify with the top two receiving byes with the regular season team hosting. That means UMHB, failing a global cataclysmic event, will earn the #1 seed and hosting duties. I am not a fan of the Cru’s schedule this year but I understand the difficulties of scheduling after a pandemic and the concerns going into this year. In the end, what they did has worked. They have a really good chance of being undefeated going into the ASC Tournament, winning it and qualifying for the NCAA Tournament. UT-Dallas sits in second but the race for that spot and for the next 4 spots is tight. Getting the second spot means a bye and avoiding UMHB until the finals. It’s a valuable goal to achieve for any of the remaining ASC teams. UTD has three losses and will likely pick up a fourth against UMHB. For some reason, HSU has their number this year so I’m sure UTD would not only like the 2nd spot but also for HSU to be on the other side of the bracket. The Comets have handled everyone else easily but a huge away match against LeTourneau will happen this week that could very well decide who gets the bye. LeTourneau sits third a half match behind UTD with the same number of losses. They have come to UTD (away), UMHB (home) and Sul Ross State (away). In addition to that UTD match this week, they also have a tough one against HSU on Tuesday away. Basically, go 3-0 this week against HSU, McMurry and UTD and they probably end up 2nd. Sul Ross State sits fourth a match behind UTD for second. The interesting thing for the Lobos is that they already have their 2 losses in the books to the Cru. Their next 5 matches are at home and I would consider them at least a slight favorite in all of them. If they can win those and sit 12-4 then they end the season against LeTourneau and UTD with 2nd place on the line. ETBU sits 6-4 and a match and a half behind UTD who they just played and put up one stinker of a match. Forget about that one, please. Five of their last eight matches are at home but you have to assume they will pick up losses to UMHB and UTD. They are 2 and half matches ahead of Concordia for an ASC Tournament spot and will play them at home this week. Win that and ETBU probably has a top 6 spot iced. HSU is 5-6 in conference and sits on the bubble one match ahead of Concordia. Oddly, they would probably love it if the rest of their matches were against UT-Dallas but that will not be the case. They have the next 3 at home and the next 4 away (although one will be against rival McMurry not far from home). HSU has split with Concordia on the year so I’m not sure how the tiebreaker with them would go but needless to say the Cowgirls need to win. Their match with Sul Ross State at home and away at ETBU will be huge. Concordia is in the midst of a hit and miss year, which I can’t understand. They have 4 home matches left although three will be really difficult; LeTourneau, UTD and UMHB. I think they need to win one of those and sweep their away matches, which mean this week against ETBU away is huge. McMurry had two matches taken away (count as losses) due to the C-Word. That gives them 6 straight conference losses. I don’t think they will be able to recover from that but they have an outside chance if they can figure things out. Howard Payne and Belhaven will be outside looking in this season so at this point it’s about gaining experience and figuring out who will contribute next season.
Looking at the NCAA Tournament and I think the ASC will only get one team in. If UMHB were to go undefeated but lose in the title match that might change. Their SOS is really bad and I think that would prevent them from getting in despite their record. They just wouldn’t have enough Ranked Results and would probably be just 1-0 in that criterion. Nice that it’s a winning record but a huge red flag to have just one match against a regionally ranked team nationally.
I’m not sure if I should even talk about UC Santa Cruz and Mill College now. They have deserted us, but I guess it’s not their fault. Mills is just playing out the season and trying to build their program. UCSC has a good chance at the C2C title and their automatic qualifier but Christopher Newport will be tough to beat. I think they will be highly regionally ranked in Region VI but I haven’t looked at it too closely. They have a chance. It will be very interesting to see where that region places UCSC in their rankings and that might tell us all we know about their at-large chances. I will say UCSC has a huge weekend ahead of them as they play at Colorado College. They get Cornell (12-6), CC (18-3), Nebraska Wesleyan (9-6) and DeSales (11-6). This will improve their SOS number, which they need. Getting wins from everyone other than CC is probably a must. CC just showed they can be beat but they are a different team at home but I will not be surprised at all if UCSC comes away with a perfect 4-0 record. If that happens, then an at-large bid seems pretty secure.
The NWC runs a nice neat little ship where everyone plays the same number of conference matches a week and we find ourselves exactly at the half-way point. Never mind that their conference standings page is always wrong (Lewis & Clark and Whitman right now). I can forgive them for that. The NWC does not play a tournament so regular season winner gets the automatic qualifier and right now that is Whitworth at 8-0. I thought they may struggle yesterday at Lewis & Clark but they escaped with a 5-set win to seal their perfect first half of play. Their remaining eight matches will have 5 away contests and that includes George Fox, Pacific, Puget Sound and PLU. The fifth is at Whitman who is their rival so all bets are off there. I really like Whitworth but I don’t see them running the table in the second half. The good news is that I don’t see anyone running the table in the second half. PLU sits in second just a match back after their defeat against Whitworth. They will only have two home matches the rest of the way with one, of course, being against Whitworth. PLU is playing much better after starting the overall season at 2-6 (they are 8-1 since then) but I see them losing probably 3 matches the rest of the way just due to the away matches and how close the conference is in talent. Puget Sound and Lewis & Clark sit in third at 5-3. The Loggers have half of their remaining matches at home and probably against the tougher opponents. Lewis & Clark have three at home and then the last 5 on the road. This week these two teams play each other and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that the loser is probably out of the running for the NWC title. Even with a win, they each will need help to get by PLU and Whitworth. The rest of the teams are all below 0.500 and probably have to far to go and too many teams to pass to have a chance at the title. They will have to settle for spoiler and teams like George Fox, Willamette and Pacific can surprise anyone, especially at home. Whitman is at 2-6 and Linfield is winless in conference so tough going so far but hopefully they can each improve the rest of the way. What’s intriguing about Linfield is that they sit 22nd in Points/Set in Region X. (Willamette, Pacific and Whitman are behind them.) You have to think that they luck will change and they’ll come up with a conference win or two.
Like the ASC, I think only one team gets into the NCAA Tournament from this conference. Too many losses early for most of these teams. Whitworth does have a chance if they win out but lose to PLU who win out and take the tiebreaker. In that case, Whitworth would have a good record (20-3) with losses to PLU, Trinity and Pomona-Pitzer. That Pomona-Pitzer loss really hurts but what they would need is for their SOS to improve. They might even have a better chance than UMHB to be regionally ranked higher if the Cru were to lose their title match. Lot of what-ifs there.
Over in the SCAC, we have half of the conference at the half-way point and the other half at various points in their conference season. I believe the SCAC Tournament will go back to their “normal” setup of 6 teams qualifying with the top 2 receiving byes. The tournament this year will be hosted by Trinity. Speaking of Trinity, they have this right? They just look to be on a different level and have the depth to overcome injuries. The second spot, who also receive a bye, is up for grabs. You’d have to say it was Colorado College’s to lose but then they dropped a heartbreaker to St Thomas yesterday. It will probably come down to the CC/Southwestern match but the Pirates have nearly dropped some matches they shouldn’t have so you never know. Southwestern does sit second right now but have not played Trinity, yet. That changes this weekend when they get four home matches that include Austin College and Trinity. Austin College has been a tough out for the Pirates recently and, even at home, you have to figure a sweep by Trinity. The next CC match will be at Schreiner and that probably decides it. The second Trinity match will be at Trinity so yikes on that one. Still the Pirates only have three sweeps on the year in conference so nothing is guaranteed. Colorado College is 7-2 with losses to St Thomas and Trinity. You have to figure the Tigers lost to Trinity again (this time at Schreiner) but they have a great chance at running the table. Do that and they get the bye. Austin College sits 6-3 with losses to the top 3 although they took the Pirates to 5-sets. For them to have a chance at the second spot they need to beat Southwestern this weekend. (I would consider it a close personal favor if you didn’t do that.) They would then need to beat Colorado College later in the year assuming they drop their match to Trinity. The fifth and sixth spot is up for grabs. TLU sits at 4-4, St Thomas at 3-6, Dallas at 2-6 and Centenary at 2-7. All have a chance depending on who gets hot. I believe St Thomas is eligible for the conference tournament even though they are not eligible for the NCAA Tournament as they are still reclassifying into DIII. Schreiner, like Linfield in the NWC, has a good Points/Set number (they sit 23rd ahead of Centenary and Dallas) but don’t have a conference win. I would wager that both Linfield and Schreiner end up with conference wins before the end of the season and that Schreiner loss would be devastating to whomever it happens to in the SCAC.
I think the SCAC gets at least 2 teams into the NCAA Tournament. The question is whether their third-place team will get in. I could poke holes in both the Colorado College and Southwestern case but I think both are deserving. Whether the selection criteria agree is a different story. I do think Southwestern may need a Trinity or CC win to secure things for them because their SOS isn’t that good right now and their signature wins were against teams that haven’t had the best year (Aurora, UTD, Carnegie Mellon, etc.)
We finish with the SCIAC and I’m pleased to report that they are also at a nice/neat half-way point in their conference season. CMS has a two-match lead in the conference and really haven’t been challenged. I don’t see them losing the rest of the way in conference. It should be pointed out that they will be traveling to Calvin to play Hope, Calvin and Ohio Northern in some already classic matches. You have to figure they pick up a loss there but, if not, they would have to be the #1 team in the nation even if Johns Hopkins stays undefeated. (They won’t be because the AVCA doesn’t play that way but they should.) Chapman and Pomona-Pitzer sit in second with Chapman owning the tiebreaker with their head-to-head win. Remember that the SCIAC only takes 4 teams into their tournament and you really want to avoid the 4th position and a first round match against CMS. Chapman has away matches against La Verne but also Pomona-Pitzer at the end of the year. That may decide things here. Interestingly about Pomona-Pitzer is that they don’t have a home this season as they are using the Harvey Mudd gym, which doesn’t allow fans. (Side note, it was at the Harvey Mudd gym in 2015 where I led the crowd and then the Southwestern team to a 5-set victory over CMS in a match that the CMS coach incorrectly believes a missed call occurred. CMS got their revenge when they paid off the referees in the first round of the NCAA Tournament that year.) Pomona-Pitzer will play some of their matches at CMS (Roberts Pavilion) because they allow fans and that includes the Chapman match. The Sagehens have away matches at Cal Lutheran and even Whittier could prove difficult as they are playing better of late. Still, getting Chapman at home to end it has to be an advantage. Cal Lutheran sits 4th, one match ahead of Whittier who have won 3-straight in conference. Cal Lu has Chapman away and Whittier away so this could be a tight finish for the last playoff spot. They do get Pomona-Pitzer at home so that will help. The match on Tuesday with Whittier at Chapman will be big. Whittier does have to go to La Verne so that will also be difficult. Get that win against Chapman and things get really tight for those top 4 spots. I’m not sure La Verne can make up that 2-match difference against Cal Lu. Sure, they could beat both Cal Lu and Whittier but I don’t think it’s likely. Oxy had a nice early run but fell back recently as they’ve lost their last 4. Caltech and Redlands are playing out the string right now. I think both could play spoiler as Caltech took La Verne to 5-sets and Redlands has this knack of playing really well at times but just not consistently.
CMS will make it into the tournament but after that I’m not to sure another team will. Chapman was hindered with the C-Word the first weekend and missed some big matches that would have helped their cause. They then started the season 2-6 against some quality opponents. That 5-set loss to Northwestern really hurts as does that 5-set loss to Whitworth. Pomona-Pitzer struggled to an 0-4 start but they do have nice wins against PLU, Puget Sound and Whitworth. Unless they can petition the NWC for entry this season, I don’t think it will be enough. Everyone else has a below 0.500 record. Best hope for the SCIAC is to get into their tournament and upset CMS.
One thing I haven’t talked too much about is a “Region X Regional”. One thing to remember is that there are now 10 regions but still only 8 regionals, which is where 8 teams play in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. It’s a big advantage to host a regional. The only chance Region X has to host a regional is if they have a minimum of 3 teams in driving distance from the host site. If you don’t think the SCIAC will get two teams in then California is out (even with UC Santa Cruz). If CMS was smart, they would lose the SCIAC final and maybe gain a regional hosting gig. Texas could host (would be at Trinity) if Trinity, UMHB and Southwestern are selected. That means 5 flights in and you save the 6th flight for Emory or someone flying into Emory (or Berry). If Southwestern doesn’t make it then no Region X Regional. There would be the four conference winners plus Colorado College (or Trinity if they don’t win the SCAC) and maybe UC Santa Cruz and you fly them out to piece together your regionals. That’s 5 or 6 flights and you are done as I doubt anyone else would need to fly. That’s basically the story as I see it today. Everyone needs to be cheering for Southwestern or Trinity, CMS or UMHB need to tank their title match.
Looking forward there are some really important matches for conference tournament seeding this week. Right now, I will be at Southwestern this weekend where I will be heckling Ed Garza (Austin College), Ashley McDonough (Centenary), Kelli Trautmann (Dallas) and Julie Jenkins (Trinity). If you want to say hello, I’ll be the tall guy in the yellow Southwestern hat with the hot wife (make sure you tell her I wrote that otherwise it’s just creepy if you come up to me and say, “Man, you have a hot wife.”) I will also be the guy hiding my tears when they announce the Pirates’ seniors. If that doesn’t help, just look at Southwestern Coach Don Flora as he often tries to find me during matches to see if I agree with his decisions. Julie does the same thing but I finally had to say, “You’ve won 1000 matches! I think you’ve got this without me now.” Alright I need to stop writing now. I’m a little giddy and although I’m making myself laugh, I feel I’m no longer appreciated by the SCAC coaches.
Comments