Unranked At-Large Teams?

Our eyes, the AVCA rankings and QWI are telling us that Region VIII is really good this year. Not just one or two teams good but like the entire freaking region good. With the NCAA decision to restrict regional rankings to just 7 teams, I thought it would be interesting to see how the first unranked team in Region VIII would do against other region’s ranked teams.

For this exercise, I’m taking the team QWI says is the 8^th team in Region VIII and that is Millikin. I’m using the data through this past weekend. Looking above Millikin in the QWI data, here are the ranked teams from other regions that it says Millikin is better than; Region I Team 1 (I-1), II-1, III-1, IV-2, V-2, VI-1, VII-2, IX-4 and X-4. (Does that nomenclature make sense? I hope so.)

To make it easier, here are the actual teams that I will compare against Millikin:

I-1: Wesleyan II-1: Babson III-1: Ithaca IV-2: Rowan V-2: Scranton VI-1: Emory VII-2: Otterbein IX-4: Gustavus Adolphus X-4: UC Santa Cruz

First off, some pretty darn good teams there and it includes four #1 teams. Are we really saying that this year an unranked team in a region is better than almost half of the top ranked teams? Let’s see using the selection criteria as if it were selection day and all of these teams needed an at-large bid. Remember that when we use the selection criteria nationally, it usually comes down to just three of the five criteria: Record, SOS and Ranked Results.

Millikin’s numbersRecord 0.722 SOS 0.625 Ranked Wins UW-Whitewater & UW-Oshkosh Ranked Losses CMS & UW-Stevens Point

Millikin/Wesleyan

Wesleyan has a better record but a worse SOS, so this, like I assume most of the rest below will come down to Ranked Results. Wesleyan has an estimated 6-1 Ranked Record. Their loss is to NYU. Their wins include some okay (but ranked) New England teams. Their best ranked wins are Tufts, Susquehanna and MIT.

In the past, the selection committee would most likely focus on that 6-1 Ranked Record and choose Wesleyan. They really don’t consider where those ranked teams came from or where they are ranked. I would say that those wins my Millikin are better but it’s close. There’s no head-to-head here but there’s at least one common opponent (Aurora). Wesleayn beat them but Millikin lost to them. Regardless of Ranked Results, I also give the advantage to Wesleyan here.

Millikin/Babson

Like the previous comparison, Millikin has a better SOS but a worse record. I don’t see any common opponents here and no head-to-head. Babson has an estimated Ranked Record of 2-1. Their two wins are New England teams and their loss is to CMS. Their best win is probably Springfield (although their Emerson win this week is probably better). Those teams don’t compare to Whitewater or Oshkosh in my opinion. Will the selection committee just choose 2-1 over 2-2? Maybe. They shouldn’t. Advantage Millikin here.

Millikin/Ithaca

Same story. Record and SOS are split with Millikin having the SOS advantage. Ithaca’s estimated Ranked Record is 8-3. Their losses are Gustavus Adolphus, Juniata and Virginia Wesleyan. Their eight Ranked Wins includes okay New York teams but their best wins are probably Chris Newport (who QWI really likes), Johns Hopkins, Susquehanna and Scranton. No common opponents (I think) and no head-to-head. Like our first comparison with Wesleyan, I think the selection committee would take those 8 Ranked Wins but I think Millikin has better wins. This is really close in my mind but I’d probably take Ithaca, as well.

Millikin/Rowan

Rowan has a better record but a horrible SOS (0.516). Their Ranked Record is 0-1. I’m not spending time on this one. Give me Millikin. If you are new to DIII volleyball welcome to the general quality of the New York Regions.

Millikin/Scranton

Millikin actually has a better record and SOS so it’s going to be tough for Scranton in this one. Ranked Record is 5-6 with their best win being Johns Hopkins. Their losses are Lebanon Valley, Chris Newport, Carnegie Mellon, TLU, Trinity, Ithaca and Messiah. This one also goes to Millikin. The next team in this region is Susquehanna per QWI and they might have had a better chance, but advantage here is Millikin.

Millikin/Emory

No way Millikin wins this one, right? Millikin actually has a better record but a worse SOS to Emory. Emory has an estimated Ranked Record of 3-4 with wins over Trinity and WashU. Losses are to CMS, BSC, Chicago and Carnegie Mellon. No head-to-head and I don’t think there is a common opponent but Chicago will become one at the end of this month. Advantage Emory, but if Millikin beats Chicago then it probably tilts to Millikin.

Millikin/Otterbein

Millikin as the better SOS but worse record. One problem I have with Otterbein is their 0.554 SOS. That’s borderline too low to be considered in my mind. Ranked Record is 3-3. Best wins are Hope, Carnegie Mellon and BSC. Losses are to Wittenberg, Calvin, Transy and Mt St Joseph. No head-to-head and no common opponents. This one is close but, to me, the SOS tilts it to Millikin.

Millikin/Gustavus Adolphus

Almost the same story as Otterbein but Adolphus has a better SOS (0.589). Ranked Record is 4-3. Best wins are UW-Eau Claire and Ithaca. Losses are to Northwestern, UW-Stevens Point, Wartburg and Coe. No head-to-head or common opponents (well, they both loss to UWSP). This is another toss-up in my mind and should show how difficult it is when it comes to selection day. I would probably tilt to Millikin but there’s something else to consider that isn’t written down anywhere but has to play inside the minds of the committee. In other words, will the committee really turn away so many teams for Region VIII? This one is so close that I’ll go with Gustavus Adolphus just because that would probably play on my mind.

Millikin/UC Santa Cruz

Better SOS for Millikin and better record for UCSC. Ranked Results for UCSC are 2-2. Two losses to CMS and wins against Chris Newport and Mary Washington. I would tilt to Millikin but we actually have a common opponent (Whittier). UCSC lost to them while Millikin beat them. Millikin wins this one easy, now.

That’s nine comparisons by Millikin against the best (per QWI) the other regions have to offer and Millikin wins 5 of the 9. That includes losing 3 of the 4 matchups against the number 1 teams. Maybe two conclusions from this. First, QWI is a cool tool but you can’t simply use their number to make selection decisions. Second, we will see unranked Region VIII teams make the tournament as at-large teams this year or the NCAA isn’t doing their job.  

One last thing and I’m sure this doesn’t matter but the new Selection Committee Chair is from Edgewood (Coach Paul Schlomer). Edgewood is a Region VIII team. I mention this simply because if someone does bring up bypassing ranked teams for unranked teams (like I sort of alluded to in the Gustavus Adolphus comparison), then it would make sense that it may not work against someone from Region VIII.