Sunday Musing

I was a little worried going into this season that I was lacking some drive but I think I’ve caught up on most of the articles I wanted to write. I definitely could have done more but couldn’t we all?

I’ve got the scheduling posts ready although, as a reminder, the links to the video and stats are going to be iffy assuming I can find them. A lot of schools leave the video stream until the very end so we are at their mercy. Nice to see UC Santa Cruz decided to be the only regionally team to play on Sunday just to give me some extra work that day.

Another reminder, the Live Stats are going to be iffy, too. The statisticians inputting the Live Stats occasionally put the teams in the wrong order so we see some strange upsets that first weekend until we realize the problem. They also have a habit of forgetting to close out the set with that 25^th point, which means that first set can be crazy long until they figure it out.

A sneak peek for the following week sees matches played Tuesday through Saturday. Normally, schools are playing tournaments the first two weekends so midweek matches are rare but not this year.

As of this writing, I’m still waiting on Dallas, Linfield and Lewis & Clark with their 2023 rosters. I will come out with a Roster Retention article this week and I hope I can include these schools. I think there is always one or two that don’t get their rosters posted in time.

In addition to the Roster Retention article, we should see the SCAC Predictions and SCIAC Predictions. I think my picks were Colorado College and CMS and after looking over their 2023 rosters, I think I’m still good with that.

With that said, let’s dive deeper into Trinity versus Colorado College and see who you would pick. Trinity (even with their Super Seniors) is losing 42.5% of their Points from 2022. Colorado College is losing 2.9%. Trinity was the much better team last year and finished 2^nd in the nation. They ended the year with 2121 Points or 17.7 Points/Set. Remember that 17+ Points/Set is outstanding and playing the schedule Trinity did makes this number even more impressive. Colorado College ended the year with 1812 Points or 16.5 Points/Set. They are losing 53 Points to graduation (or early exits from the team). So, my expectation is that Colorado College will be as good but probably better than last year (continued relationships and development). Trinity is losing 902 Points and their new Points/Set starts at 10.1. Around 600 of those Points came from their graduated right sides. The bulk of the rest came from middles. Worst case, Trinity gets 400 Points from their new right sides and another 200 goes to middles Thornton and Fate as they get more swings. That takes Trinity back up to around 1800 Points or right even with Colorado College. So, when picking between Colorado College and Trinity you are basically picking between a more experienced team (CC) or betting on Trinity’s recruiting and development of their bench players. The problem with simplifying it that way is that Colorado College recruits well and a number of Trinity players have that experience (and better experience). When I put it down like this, I might bet on Trinity.

I shouldn’t leave out TLU as they did win the SCAC Championship but their Points/Set was 15.9%. They simply had a magical run in the SCAC Tournament and deserved the title based on their play, but it doesn’t setup for long-term national powerhouse success in 2023. They are losing right around half of their Points. Don’t get me wrong, they will be good because they typically are but securing one of the 6 spots in the conference tournament and then going on another magical run will probably be their path to the NCAA Tournament.

One area that I may or may not update is the 2023 Recruits page. Now that the rosters are out, I could certainly update the names and add where needed but it’s a lot of work. I am always curious about players that are committed but don’t show up on the final roster. This typically happens with a late DI or DII offer or a financial problem or an academic problem. I’ve talked in the past about how important academics are to student-athletes so maybe I’ll skip the full soapbox speech and hit the highlight. Bottom line, athletic skill AND academics determine how many doors are open to a potential recruit. If you really want to play college volleyball, you wouldn’t slack off on drills so why slack off at school?

I’m coming off a sinus infection but I should be well enough for the first weekend of volleyball. My (hot) wife and I will be heading to the Pacific Coast Classic. I am disappointed that CMS and Southwestern share timeslots for their 3 matches so very little Athena action for me, it appears. The 10:30 am matches may be a bit of a problem both days for me due to family commitments. It does appear I might be at all three gyms both days so a tad annoying (logistically) and we’ll have to see if that plays out.

Right before posting this, “Ned” sent preliminary QWI data. This is his method for determining the programs with the toughest schedules. He then uses the results to determine the best teams in the nation. So, probably another article for the week ahead, but here is a preview. It appears the toughest schedules by region are Tufts, Brandeis, Ithaca, NYU, Juniata, Christopher Newport, Hope, UW-Oshkosh, Gustavus Adolphus and UC Santa Cruz. Eight of the top 10 schedules all come from Region 8 with Oshkosh playing the toughest in the nation.

Matches start in 5 days.