Statistics Loss – SCIAC (2023)

Here is our second installment of the Statistics Loss articles. This one covers the SCIAC with the NWC, ASC and national teams to follow. I recommend reading my first installment as I don’t want to re-explain what I’m doing here and I don’t want to complain about what I complained about there.

Since I can’t trust you, here is a summary. Statistics loss are the statistics lost to senior graduation. I go through the NCAA Database and remove the seniors and compare what they contributed versus the total. The main thing I look at is Points and a red flag is when a team loses 45% or more Points to graduation. I do not consider early graduation or transfers or Super Seniors.

Here is the table of the SCIAC teams:

What jumps out with the SCIAC is that we don’t have a single team at that 45% red flag threshold. La Verne loses the most to graduation but there were 5 teams with worse losses in the SCAC. We also see the teams that finished at the bottom of the conference with the least number of losses. On the surface, this would seem to indicate a deeper conference in 2023.

Last season, the SCAIC gave us four of our seven regionally ranked teams although three of them weren’t really in play for an at-large selection. I’ve mentioned the correlation between Points and NCAA Tournament selection before and that magic number is 17+. You can get in with less but 17 is the Points/Set number a team should be striving for. Last year, CMS was at 18.9 using these downloaded statistics (actually 19.0 because I should have rounded up but that number is just so ridiculous high, I couldn’t bring myself to credit them with it.) The other three ranked teams were Cal Lutheran (15.4), Pomona-Pitzer (16.0) and La Verne (16.4). So, 17 is important although it’s not a criterion for selection. For these three teams, it’s not only about replacing the statistics lost to graduation but also improving to where they won’t be on the outside of the tournament next year. Let’s step through each of the teams.

Cal Lutheran had a tough start to the 2022 season but came on nicely in SCIAC play. They played a tougher non-conference schedule than Pomona-Pitzer and La Verne so it’s understandable that their Points/Set numbers were worse. Still, although their losses are manageable, the bulk of those stats are from Maci Haddad who was a dominate middle for them. Whomever they get to fill that role will most likely not be able to replace her statistics right away. They are going to need improvement throughout the squad to make up these numbers and then to improve 1.5 Points/Set to give them a realistic chance at a tournament bid. That’s a tough ask.

Caltech has been on the upswing the last few seasons and these numbers seem to indicate that this trend should continue. This program does tend to lose players for a year at times due to studying abroad or just the tough course work in general so it’s hard to say if they will need to replace more than what I found. They also have a tougher time recruiting so their statistic loss usually is more meaningful than for a bigger volleyball program. With that said, it will be interesting to see if they can continue to improve and find a way into the top four that make the conference tournament.

Chapman had some big senior losses going into last year and suffered as they were unable to find replacements that could match the previous output. They are in better shape this year and really had a big group of contributors last year. Can they leverage that experience and improve this season? I would think they can, which just means a deeper conference and a harder time for teams to get in that top four.

CMS is losing 5.2 Points/Set to graduation and I don’t think they will achieve that 18.9 Points/Set this season. With that said, they may be a stronger team because they could be moving to a 5-1 behind setter Georgia McGovern. That’s one less opposite on the floor but each of the hitters will now be getting a consistent ball so each should improve slightly. CMS was also a very deep team last year often running out different lineups depending on the day of the week (I think). They have the talent, experience and leadership to make another deep run and it’s conceivable they could go through to the national championship without ever leaving the state.

Unless some DI program has come calling for Mya Ray, La Verne should be fine this season despite losing the most statistics to graduation in the SCIAC. They do need to replace Ayana Mier and find more consistency at the other attacking spots but they should still be a factor in the conference race and in the regional rankings.

It was good to see Oxy bounce back a bit last season and they are in good shape going into 2023. They did have a small roster and will need to replace their setter but they should be looking at double-digit wins. How many wins will depend on how fast this young squad continues to grow.

Pomona-Pitzer was a really balanced team last season with four players at 200 or more points. They “only” lose Grace Fan out of the middle to graduation from these four so they, too, should be in good shape this season. Continued improvement from the other attackers (need to reduce some errors) will help and I think the squad has some younger middles ready to step up.

It was a tough 2022 for Redlands, which has seen the arrival of a new coach. They averaged only 11.4 Points/Set so although they didn’t lose anyone to graduation, there is a lot of improvement that needs to happen for them to get into the top half of the conference. They are probably still a year or two from this happening but we should see a more competitive team in 2023.

Whittier was another team with a large number of players. They should be able to easily compensate for their graduation losses. Averaging right at 14 Points/Set means they should be able to break into that 15 to 16 range, which puts them in discussion for the top four in conference. Of course, that makes about 7 teams ready for that top four so something is going to have give.  

Overall, the SCIAC will probably drive how well the region does in 2023. They were good last season and should be better this year based on these numbers. The top teams are playing a good schedule so what needs to happen are wins those first three weekends. If that happens, we could see another four teams in the regional rankings but this time with a chance to make the tournament. That could mean another regional in SoCal and a nice path for (probably) CMS to make a run at a national title. Of course, Trinity will have a say in that discussion like they did last year.