Statistics Loss – SCIAC

The next round of senior graduation statistics loss is up and this time the focus is on the SCIAC. You can find my article on the SCAC, here. I’m going to rehash what I wrote there about statistic loss so if you’ve already read it then you have my permission to skip over the next two paragraphs.

These articles attempt to shed a light into what teams will be losing statistics based on the players lost to graduation. We all know there will be other players lost between now and the 2020 season but these are the ones that we can be reasonably sure about. With that said, there are always one or two players that are truly seniors that elect to stay another season because they still have eligibility so nothing is perfect. I’ll also point out that I pulled rosters from the NCAA database and I did find a couple of instances where their listed eligibility did not match the school’s website. In these cases, I went with the school’s website.

As I’ve mentioned in the past I sort of have a 45% rule of thumb when it comes to points. If a school loses that many points or more then it’s typically a sign they are going to struggle the next season. There are always exceptions and they tend to be with the traditionally powerhouses who are better equipped to replace the lost statistics. I also look at assists and digs but past research shows that these statistics are easier to replace.

Alright, back to the new content. Today I will go through the nine teams in the SCIAC. We’ll look at the statistics loss going into 2020 and also how the 2019 losses played out this past season.

Here is a table of the SCIAC teams with their 2019 record and the anticipated statistic losses due to graduation.

Team	Record	Pts Lost	Assists	Digs
Pomona-Pitzer	12-14	45.3%	2.4%	18.4%
Claremont-M-S	27-4	38.1%	62.5%	58.2%
Redlands	8-19	32.5%	49.9%	21.5%
Whittier	12-15	31.6%	26.6%	35.8%
Caltech	9-16	29.0%	12.4%	18.2%
La Verne	15-13	18.2%	80.2%	24.0%
Occidental	2-25	16.8%	0.8%	3.7%
Chapman	23-5	15.3%	0.8%	7.9%
Cal Lutheran	17-11	1.6%	8.6%	27.5%

We have our first team to hit the magical 45% mark in Pomona-Pitzer but just barely. Interestingly, digs really aren’t impacted so this is typically a sign that they are losing middles and/or right side players and that is the case here. Middle Vicky-Marie Addo-Ashong (“The Hyphen”) and right side Isabel Kelly will be graduating and leave as the two best hitters from this team (points wise). Not shown in the table, but blocking also takes a big hit with the loss of these two. In all there are 6 seniors from this team but the coaching staff recognized this and brought in a big class last year. The question will be whether these rising sophomores are ready to step in and replace these statistics. The Sagehens were in a battle until the last week for a SCIAC Tournament spot but these losses will make another run that much tougher in 2020.

The rest of the SCIAC teams can’t be too sad to see a good crop of seniors graduate from CMS in the spring. The Athena’s will be losing three All-Americans in Phoebe Madsen, Amanda Walker and Sarah Tritschler, but it’s the loss of two-time All-Region Player of the Year Phoebe Madsen that is the concern. CMS has a number of internal candidates to replace Tritschler at libero and I’d be shocked if Melanie Williams doesn’t come close to duplicating Walker’s production next season, but Madsen was a do-everything player that will probably be impossible to replace with just one person. I do think CMS will suffer a bit next season but they recruit well and have talent already in place to compete for another SCIAC title.

I’ll talk a bit below about how I thought Redlands would do this past season but these will be tough losses for this program to overcome next season. In total at least 6 seniors will be graduating but they still have their three best hitters returning and their outstanding libero. Improvement from the returners and finding another setter will be needed to soften the blow.

Whittier and Caltech have similar losses in statistics as Redlands has going into next year. I think Whittier is in a better position to overcome them as they tended to play a lot of players during the course of the 2019 season. Their three leading hitters were all sophomores and in their case it will be about finding production from the middles next season. Caltech is coming off their best season ever so graduating four seniors will be a tough task to replace especially when one of them is Lauren Li (their points leader despite missing a number of matches). Caltech just has unique issues when it comes to recruiting as well as keeping players on the team all four years due to their studies.

La Verne losing Madison Maynes is going to hurt. Yeah, I say losing a setter isn’t as bad as losing a top hitter but those 5-1 setters can be tough to replace regardless of what the statistics say. Other than that, the Leopards should be able to absorb the losses and most likely have an improved season. They have a number of rising sophomores and I would expect a good recruiting class assuming Coach Hendershot has the “interim” tag removed.

Occidental and Chapman are losing similar statistics. Oxy finished at the bottom of the standings so they are looking for a nice bump in 2020 as they rebuild the program. Chapman finished near the top of the standings so they have to be thinking conference title when you couple their losses with what CMS is losing.

Cal Lutheran looks to be a major player in 2020 as they lose the least from among the SCIAC teams. Like Chapman, they should also be thinking about a conference title next season. Another year of experience should smooth out their performances as they were really up and down all year. The talent is there and a 20 win season will be expected.

Looking at the conference as a whole and the top 4 seem to be in place but after that I just don’t know. I think Chapman and Cal Lutheran are locks for a top 4 spot as it stands today. I think to count out CMS is always a mistake so you have to put them in the mix, too. La Verne was the fourth place team and they are positioned to have a better season. I think the other 5 teams are going to be in a tight group until we see the recruits. Believe me; I’m not counting anyone out as one player can change the landscape for a program in DIII volleyball. It’s just based on these statistics; it seems like a little more of a gap has opened up after the top 4. I will also say getting a better performance from Oxy will be huge for the conference and that looks to be in the cards.

Here are the statistics from 2018 so let’s see how things played out this past season. Again, the record is from 2018 as are the statistic losses.

Team	Record	Pts Lost	Assists	Digs
Occidental	8-16	45.9%	62.5%	44.1%
La Verne	18-11	43.5%	11.2%	42.9%
Chapman	19-8	36.0%	54.4%	61.6%
Cal Lutheran	18-12	33.7%	59.1%	29.6%
Whittier	16-12	25.9%	30.6%	19.8%
Pomona-Pitzer	13-15	21.5%	7.3%	44.4%
Caltech	3-22	12.1%	1.2%	2.7%
Redlands	13-14	1.5%	15.4%	4.2%
Claremont-M-S	27-4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Like for the SCAC, these numbers have not been adjusted for what actually happened because, frankly, that would just take too much work on my part. These numbers are what I had at this time last year.

Oxy wasn’t coming off the greatest of seasons and then had a lot of statistics to make up. Their drop down to 2 wins, therefore, really wasn’t unexpected. When I talk about the good job done by the La Verne staff, here is the basis of that argument. They lost an amazing libero and almost half of their hitting and that doesn’t include additional losses that occurred after I did this analysis. Still, they managed a good season and a 4^th place finish in conference.

We can see that both Chapman and Cal Lutheran were able to shake off their statistics loss from 2018 and have good seasons. Both are in better position this year. Whittier and Pomona-Pitzer basically duplicated their season this past year with these losses. (I know that Whittier had a couple more losses that are not reflected in these statistics.)

Caltech’s improvement was helped by not having to replace much in 2019. CMS duplicated their results in 2019 after not having any senior graduation although they did lose one player to injury during the offseason. It’s hard to quantify back-to-back 27-4 seasons but I think it was obvious through their play that CMS was much better this past season than in 2018. It was just their luck to be placed in a really tough regional. (By luck I mean the evil plans of the NCAA.)

The big surprise to me in 2019 was Redlands. They really didn’t have to replace much but they still dropped 5 wins. I do believe their schedule was tougher but I was expecting a bit more from the team. It just shows you that these statistics don’t tell you the whole story.

Overall, I expect the top teams in the SCIAC to be better in 2020 even if there is a bit of a drop-off in the play of CMS. There is a real chance of four 20-win teams in this conference depending on how their schedules shake out. I think the other teams have some work cut out for them but there is a lot of talent returning on all of these teams. I am a little worried about Caltech but I think Oxy will be much improved and I think Redlands will bounce back a bit. The wildcards for me are Pomona-Pitzer and Whittier. Whittier is in a little better position to make a run statistically but Pomona-Pitzer has a number of rising juniors and sophomores that could surprise. Should be another fun one.