Statistics Loss – SCAC

It’s once again time to look at senior graduation statistics loss. These articles attempt to shed a light into what teams will be losing statistics based on the players lost to graduation. We all know there will be other players lost between now and the 2020 season but these are the ones that we can be reasonably sure about. With that said, there are always one or two players that are truly seniors that elect to stay another season because they still have eligibility so nothing is perfect. I’ll also point out that I pulled rosters from the NCAA database and I did find a couple of instances where their listed eligibility did not match the school’s website. In these cases, I went with the school’s website.

As I’ve mentioned in the past I sort of have a 45% rule of thumb when it comes to points. If a school loses that many points or more then it’s typically a sign they are going to struggle the next season. There are always exceptions and they tend to be with the traditionally powerhouses who are better equipped to replace the lost statistics. I also look at assists and digs but past research shows that these statistics are easier to replace.

Today I will go through the ten teams in the SCAC. We’ll look at the statistics loss going into 2020 and also how the 2019 losses played out this past season.

Here is a table of the SCAC teams with their 2019 record and the anticipated statistic losses due to graduation.

Team	Record	Pts Lost	Assists	Digs
Johnson & Wales (CO)	3-24	44.6%	24.0%	28.0%
Colorado College	32-5	43.7%	67.7%	62.6%
Texas Lutheran	20-17	30.9%	48.8%	26.0%
Schreiner	10-23	20.8%	4.6%	5.7%
Austin College	18-22	9.0%	2.9%	24.3%
University of Dallas	17-19	5.7%	19.9%	25.9%
Trinity	37-5	5.3%	23.2%	5.7%
Centenary College	11-24	5.0%	7.0%	40.6%
Southwestern	22-15	4.7%	0.1%	1.1%
St. Thomas (TX)	8-18	0.5%	0.7%	7.6%

No teams from the SCAC hit the magical 45% mark although JWU is as close as you can get. Smaller programs, especially ones that are still fighting their way through the provisional process as JWU is, are going to be impacted more by any kind of loss than the more established programs. We’ll have to see what players JWU brings in but it doesn’t look good right now for 2020.

Colorado College has had quite a run but they are losing some outstanding seniors (Counts, Gurolnick, Harris, Mullen and Spaethling) that will impact their statistics across the board (including those not shown above). They are, by a good margin, the program most adversely impacted by graduation going into next season out of the SCAC. My concern level, however, isn’t that great as I expect they will once again be in contention for the SCAC title as well as another NCAA Tournament spot. One factor that plays in their favor (oddly) was the injuries they’ve had over the last two seasons. They have been forced to play a number of student-athletes that otherwise wouldn’t have received much playing time and they know they can be successful without a number of the seniors that will be graduating. The program also recruits well so while I can see them suffer a dip in 2020, I still think they will be a Top 25 program.

TLU had a nice bounce back year and played really well down the stretch. Their losses are manageable but not have the recruiting fortune of a Colorado College probably means they can expect some issues in 2020. I also worry about the leadership as both Jaci Chambers and Bryten Mitchan were so important to the team in so many ways.

Schreiner had a nice season as they try to hit the 0.500 mark for a season. Any kind of a loss for a 10 win team is going to be difficult to recover from but their roster is actually pretty large so the hope here is that a couple of the freshman can step up in 2020. The biggest issue for this team is just to make sure that their fabulous freshman Kayla Lofland returns.

The rest of the teams in the SCAC all have less than a 10% loss in points, which typically means the team should have a better record the following season. Trinity is losing setter Kartrina Lieberman but she really only played a half of a season and Trinity made it to the Final 4 without her. Centenary is losing their libero, which is never good, but they should be able to replace her production. Other than those players, the rest of the teams seem to be returning the bulk of their squad. Trinity coming off a 37 win season and a Final 4 appearance would look to be a good choice for a national championship in 2020. Southwestern with their 22 win season would look to be a team that could take the jump up to a NCAA Tournament team and a possible ranking. Austin College and Dallas should be above 0.500 teams and you would think should have no issues qualifying for the SCAC Tournament. Centenary will look to improve their record and possibly try to trip up a team so they make the SCAC Tournament, too.

Looking at the conference as a whole and it should be stronger top to bottom. St. Thomas will still not count in the standings as they will be considered a non-DIII team but I think JWU will now count as they are in their 3^rd year of reclassification. If true, that does pose a bit of an issue as it looks like they may not have the best record come next season, which will drag other team’s strength of schedule down. It will be important for the rest of the teams to hit the 0.500 mark or better if the SCAC hopes to get 2 at-large bids as they have done in the past.

Here are the statistics from 2018 so let’s see how things played out this past season. Again, the record is from 2018 as are the statistic losses.

Team	Record	Pts Lost	Assists	Digs
St. Thomas (TX)	25-7	76.0%	61.9%	76.3%
Centenary College	18-18	39.1%	3.7%	31.6%
Trinity	25-7	37.7%	7.7%	42.0%
Austin College	16-18	28.4%	0.9%	5.2%
Southwestern	18-12	26.5%	6.8%	46.9%
Colorado College	32-3	21.9%	0.9%	5.7%
Johnson & Wales (CO)	2-24	18.4%	61.2%	14.8%
University of Dallas	20-15	6.4%	71.9%	25.4%
Texas Lutheran	9-21	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%
Schreiner	3-27	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

These numbers have not been adjusted for what actually happened because, frankly, that would just take too much work on my part. These numbers are what I had at this time last year.

St. Thomas finished at 8-18 in their first year of reclassification and frankly they were a surprise. I think what this shows is that the Celts are going to be a player when they become a full DIII member. They can recruit players even under the hardest of times and being the only DIII school in Houston will give them a great advantage in the years to come.

There were no other teams under the 45% mark from 2018 but you can see how any kind of significant loss can impact the smaller programs as Centenary did drop to 11-24 this past season. On the flip side, a program like Trinity can basically shrug off the same type of losses. Notice how the teams that really didn’t lose statistics had a nice bump in 2019 in both TLU and Schreiner. I guess you could consider Dallas as a disappointment but their schedule was much stronger in 2019 than it was in 2018.

Overall, I expect good things from the SCAC in 2020. It won’t surprise me to see three NCAA Tournament teams nor will it surprise me to see 5 teams with 20+ wins.