Statistics Loss – Nationally

Here is your last statistics loss article for the 2021 season. This should have been done at the start of the year but it is what it is. I previewed the five teams with the worst statistics loss so let’s take a look at everyone nationally with this article.

My rule of thumb is 45% when it comes to points. If a school loses that many points or more then it’s typically a sign they are going to struggle the next season. There are always exceptions and they tend to be with the traditional power teams who are better equipped to replace the lost statistics.

In my last article, I mentioned that I couldn’t remember another team outside of IWU that had a points loss of 70% or more. As I completed my research for this article, I realized that I actually capture all of my previous years’ data. I just forgot. So, here are the teams that have hit the 70% mark:

• 2017 JWU (Denver) 75.6%

• 2018 St Thomas (Texas) 76%

• 2018 IWU 71.4%

• 2019 Whitworth 71.2%

That’s four teams total since 2016 and we had four this year and one really close to that mark this past season. (Note – I didn’t do national teams in 2016.)

For the first three teams in the list, the following year’s win totals were 2, 8 and 9. Not a large sample size and St Thomas was reclassifying to DIII but safe to say it’s not good to hit the 70% mark. In Whitworth’s case, I think they would have been the exception as they did have a good abbreviated 2020 (Covid) season. Their solution to the loss problem was to bring in some exceptional transfers that made up for the statistics.

In the past, when doing this article, I’ll do some comparisons with how the losses the previous year impacted this past season. The problem is that we really didn’t have a season in 2020 so not much to compare against. Let me dump the national teams I researched here, which will include their 2021 record, points loss, assists loss and digs loss. Then we’ll discuss some of the teams in the list.

At the top of the list, you see the five teams we discussed in my previous article. What we should now do first is look at those 45% points loss teams. We have the five already discussed plus IWU, Bowdoin, Susquehanna, UW-Whitewater, UW-La Crosse and CMU. What’s interesting here, is that in my 2020 article (going into the Covid season), we had 10 teams at 45% or higher and this season (despite the big numbers from the first 5 teams), we have 11. So, not much of a difference and you have to remember I add to my list of national teams each year.

Looking at IWU, they appear to be losing at least half of their main contributors from 2021 across the board. I’m the first to admit that there is no way that I can be an expert on every roster in the nation so I have to go by what the stats tell me. In IWU’s case, they don’t look too bad for a 58.8% points loss team. Of the players that had 100 points or more, they should return four. It appears that a number of players got opportunities last season and that will certainly help going into 2022. They also retain their libero and it looks like two of the hitters returning are outsides. I’d be worried about the service receive here but IWU looks like they have a reasonable chance to come close to their 2021 season. Loyal reader and indispensable contributor, “Ned”, is a Bowdoin supporter so he will probably correct me on anything I’m about to write. The Polar Bears had 5 players hit the 100-point mark and two will be returning. They retain their libero and setter so it’s all about finding hitting in 2022. The problem here is that their top two hitters were far and away their best offensive weapons and that’s always tough to replace the next season. Susquehanna is a little different in that they should be returning their top offensive talent so although they are losing four 100-point plus players, they still have their leader. It will help that they have their setter but they will be losing their libero. We have three teams with big losses out of the WIAC so it should make that always tough conference a little more wide open this year. I imagine Whitewater shouldn’t haven’t too many issues finding replacements as they are always a strong squad. They are also returning two of their top three hitters so you can see as we approach that 45% number, more of the hitters that contributed should be coming back. They should also be returning their libero but will lose both of their setters to graduation. La Crosse had a pretty big roster but will be losing 7 seniors. That includes their top hitter in Emma Lawrence unless she comes back for a 5^th year. She had over 500 points in 2021. Carnegie Mellon is the last team I’ll look at in this group but I’m probably more concerned over their 2021 record then their statistics loss. They have to make up those statistics, for sure, but they also need to improve if they want a better record than 14-14. Playing in the tough UAA makes this even more problematic. As far as the squad, they appear to be losing their top hitter and two others that had more than 100 points each. They should return 4 hitters who had over 100 points and their setting and defense seems to be intact for another run, as well.

Outside the 45% and higher range but teams that are interesting to me are WashU, Ithaca and Bethel. WashU missed out on the NCAA Tournament last season for the first time since 1986 so they really can’t afford to miss out on any statistics. They sit at 42.55% points loss but the setting and defense seem to be intact. It will be interesting to see if they can bounce back to NCAA Tournament form in 2022. Ithaca is another power program that had a down 2021 season. Of course, they still made it into the NCAA Tournament because of their strength of schedule. (Remember, the NCAA selection committee really favor strength of schedule even when you don’t win.) Still, a 16-win season wasn’t up to their standards and it looks like they will take some hits across the board in points, assists and digs. But it’s be proven they don’t have to win to make the tournament so maybe I’m concerned over nothing. (They are playing another good schedule in 2022.) Bethel had a nice season and are losing a couple of 5^th year players but also their outstanding setter. Hannah Wilhite is taking with her, unless she comes back for another year, 1132 assists, 256 digs and 170 points. When I say it’s easier to replace liberos and setters than hitters, it doesn’t mean that it’s easy to replace a player like Wilhite.

Time to look at the teams in good shape heading into 2022. First, let me quote myself from my 2020 article as to the importance of returning most of your team, “Finally we have Eau Claire coming off a 20-win season and being the only team I tracked that didn’t have a senior on the roster. They get the early January national championship award!” Now, I was a year too early for this proclamation but blame Covid for that. Who knows, it may have robbed them from back-to-back championships. This year, the preseason championship goes to Transylvania who is the only team (on paper) not to lose any statistics. As for the other schools in good shape, we have Saint Benedict coming off a 7-win season so it will be interesting to see if they can reverse their fortunes in 2022. Aurora is another team that is going to be really strong as their losses look minimal. Looks like UW-Oshkosh should be one of the favorites in the WIAC this season. Northwestern losses their setter but will be another good team this year. Swarthmore is the last team I researched under the 10% mark.

Another team in good shape appears to be Berry as they return most of their hitting. The issue here is whether they lose their setter (Emily Rapach) to graduation as she’s another outstanding all-around player. She’s listed as a senior in the NCAA database but a “redshirt junior” on the Berry roster. After watching her and her team beat Southwestern in the Emory Regional semi-finals, I vote that she leave the program immediately and never return. (Although if you do want to play another year, it’s always fun to be a Pirate!) With that said, if she returns then expect the 2022 championship to be between Transylvania and Berry. Wait, I have to take that back. They will both be reseeded by the NCAA to play in the quarter-final as to protect the New England teams. Speaking of New England teams, Wesleyan looks to be strong coming out of that region. I also have to get my New England jokes in early as several of their teams look to be playing out-of-region teams this year (Wesleyan included in this), which is welcomed and surprising. (Update – Rapach is returning so jump on the Berry bandwagon while you can.)

Finally, looking through the list of teams outside the West Region, you have to like Transylvania, Aurora, Oshkosh, Northwestern, Berry, Wesleyan, Ohio Northern and Emory. Maybe Chicago but every time I watched them play last season, I thought they overachieved. And I know Calvin and Juniata will be just fine, too. The one team I didn’t mention and who I think could really challenge for the championship is NYU. They were a really strong team last season and are actually losing 7 seniors (maybe) but only one of them made a large contribution last season. They are just so tall and really played well last season ultimately losing to an outstanding (but annoying) Trinity team in the Stevens Regional Final.

One thing to remember in all of this is that we don’t know what players are returning for their Super Senior years. Some of the 2022 rosters are out but I didn’t have time to look through every team. There are, of course, some really significant players that could come back and flip the statistical script. The other side of that is that there is not guarantee non-seniors come back, either. Some like to graduate early and then there are always injuries that play a role. This is all on paper but it’s all we have for another 50+ days.

Oh, and Happy 4^th of July.