Statistics Loss – ASC (2023) + Slugs

I am back at it as we move to the ASC with the UC Santa Cruz Banana Slugs thrown in for good measure. I felt with the recent UT-Dallas news that I’d better get to the ASC quickly before there is no one left! (Okay. Maybe that joke was in poor taste and a tad too soon. Or, and hear me out. Maybe, UCSC should consider a move to the ASC? I mean Colorado College is in the SCAC. Go to pod scheduling and the travel budget for UCSC probably doesn’t change. Geez, why didn’t I get the ASC commissioner’s job?)

I will try to get to a bunch of national teams next as I like to have that done before I do my Preseason Top 25.

As you all recall because you read the previous statistics loss articles, statistics loss are the statistics lost to senior graduation. I go through the NCAA Database and remove the seniors and compare what they contributed versus the total. The main thing I look at is Points and a red flag is when a team loses 45% or more Points to graduation. I do not consider early graduation or transfers or Super Seniors.

Here is the table of the ASC teams:

And, here is the table of all of the C2C teams I care about:

Let’s start with the Slugs because they are easy. They are only losing their #1 setter from last season in Sinead Beaupain. I know what you are thinking, nothing compares to u, Sinead, but I feel all of you should be ashamed for that thought. First, it was too easy and much too obvious and, quite frankly, shows your age. Let’s try to be better. Checking the recruiting page, and the Slugs are bringing in 3 setters so it appears their need is being addressed. If they can just maintain what they did last year on the offense then another tournament appearance looks to be in order. They averaged 17.2 Points/Set last season and it would surprise me if they dropped below 17 this season.

Over to the ASC and there is some good news here for most of the teams. We do have two teams over the 45% mark with perennial conference champion, UT-Dallas, being one. Concordia is the other and they are often a conference tournament qualifier. That certainly opens the door for other teams to go after that automatic qualifier with Mary Hardin-Baylor and ETBU having to be the favorites. Still, I’ve been suckered in by top teams losing a bunch of stats only to see them recruit well or have players ready to step up so I still think this conference belongs to UT-Dallas until an official memo is sent to me. I will say that the other 7 teams are in really good shape and I’d love to see this conference, as a whole, do well this season. Let’s go through each of the teams now.

Concordia looks to be in a little trouble this season with a step back from their 12-11 record a big possibility. Of course, I thought they were a little better than their record indicated so maybe they hold steady? They do lose their top two hitters in Haschke and Ghormley, a beloved granddaughter in Darby Stowers and a fun do-everything player (but such a pest) in Alyssa Legette. Legette was hurt a bunch last year so less stats to make up if you follow that logic. They did have a bunch of first-years and sophomores on the squad so we’ll see if they are ready to step up into some giant holes.

ETBU could be really fascinating this year. They averaged 16.4 Points/Set last season and appear to be losing no one. They have a big squad and neither of their two big hitters in Mosley and Reid are seniors. They should definitely be one of the favorites in the conference but could they get an at-large if they slip up? I had their schedule graded as a ‘B’, but they do have a huge national match against Emory week one. It would be fun if they could take them down. A stronger ASC would help as I fear their strength of schedule will be average, at best. They need to see general improvement overall and get their Points/Set up to that 17 margin and then just win (except when they play Southwestern in October).

HSU had a nice (and unexpected) season last year finishing 14-10. I see three players graduating but they return their top hitters. We should see another step up for this team and they are another squad that could challenge for the conference. They averaged 16.3 Points/Set last season and look to be losing 2.7. They will need to make that up plus some extra to get by traditional favorites UMHB, UT-Dallas and the flavor of the season, ETBU.

Howard Payne is coming off a 3-win season but seem to be returning most of their squad. They had a bunch of sophomore contributors last year so that experience will be vital as they try to get to a double-digit win total. With the ASC probably getting better overall, they may get lost in the crowd in that their conference performance may be unchanged although playing a better brand of volleyball.

Rinse and repeat it seems as LeTourneau is also returning most everyone and will need to only replace Natalie Davenport who’s been very good for them over the years setting and playing defense. They look to be in better shape than HSU but their Points/Set last year was actually worse by over a point. They probably overachieved a bit last season playing for a new coach so will they stay around where they were or get to that 20-win mark? I honestly don’t know but they should be a lock for the conference tournament.

McMurry was another conference tournament team and they also look to be getting better going into this season. They averaged 15.4 Points/Set, which was better than LeTourneau but worse than HSU. This is another young squad that will be getting better so the conference tournament seems a lock again. If you are counting at home, I’ve already filled up all 6-spots (assuming UMHB and UT-Dallas are in) and I haven’t gotten to Sul Ross State, yet. Two players to watch here are Lexi Miller and Chelsea Lewis. Both were first-years last season that contributed. Will they take a big step forward or go backwards (as some players do now that they don’t have the club season to keep them honest). This is another team that could flirt with 20-wins in the ASC.

I have Sul Ross State ONLY losing one player but what a player to lose. I have checked and Annika Canaba will not be coming back for her 12^th season. (I’m not 100% sure she’s played 11-seasons but it seems that way.) The glorious middle/setter has pulled down her knee pads and retired her batting helmet (she also played softball) and she will be tough to replace. I have also learned that there isn’t another Canaba in the pipeline to help her coach (and father) out (poor planning there). History says it’s possible to replace the statistics and that Sul Ross State should be as good as they were last season, if not a little better. They averaged 14.7 Points/Set but could only get to 8-wins. Maybe they get to 0.500 but with the improved ASC, that will be difficult. I also don’t see them making the conference tournament but they and Concordia could always surprise.

We now come to the two heavy hitters in the conference starting with Mary Hardin-Baylor. They look to be returning everyone from a 17-win team. They only had 15.2 Points/Set last year so they will need improvements across the board to get that number up. I would normally slot them into first since we know UTD is suffering some losses but, again, a number of teams in the conference should be better, too. I think anything less than 20-wins would be a shock this season and I’m sure this squad will be thinking about that automatic qualifier up for grabs come November.

Heavy losses for UT-Dallas as they reached 16.2 Points/Set last season but appear ready to lose 10.7 of those points! Still, they always recruit well and they do have two rising sophomores in Lauren Johnson and Gabi Engels ready for more swings after contributing last year. They will have veteran leadership in the setter and libero positions, but this article is all about the offense and that’s where I see problems. They do have a couple of 6-footers coming in and a number of returners that I’m sure are itching to get on the court. Can they repeat as champions? Again, history says they probably will but statistically, they probably will not.

After going through that work, I’m finding it hard not to jump on that ETBU bandwagon right now. UMHB should be better than last year and I will never count out UT-Dallas (well, until they move to DII and become dead to me). HSU is a nice story as is McMurry as is LeTourneau. Will Concordia really not make the conference tournament? How does Sul Ross State replace Canaba? Can Howard Payne play spoiler because they should be a better squad? Lots of question and this conference should be a fascinating watch. I wish more of these schools played a better out-of-conference schedule because the conference may deserve more than one squad in the NCAA Tournament. I just fear that they are all better but just beat up on themselves so that no one knows.

As far as the Slugs, more of the same from them. They play a great schedule and should give a lot of top teams fits this year. Their goal should be to not spit the bit in their conference tournament this season (there is some tough love for you guys).