Statistics Loss – ASC

Small note…I didn’t intend for there to be a big gap in the middle of these statistic losses articles. The holidays got me and then my son and I took a spur of the moment trip to London to watch a number of soccer games. We got back yesterday and I’m currently a tad sleep deprived but let’s see if I can get the rest of these done in a timely manner.

Today we look at the fourth West Region conference (ASC) and how their graduation statistic losses look. You can find my article on the SCAC, here, my article on the SCIAC, here, and my article on the NWC, here. I’m going to rehash what I wrote there about statistic loss so if you’ve already read it then you have my permission to skip over the next two paragraphs.

These articles attempt to shed a light into what teams will be losing statistics based on the players lost to graduation. We all know there will be other players lost between now and the 2020 season but these are the ones that we can be reasonably sure about. With that said, there are always one or two players that are truly seniors that elect to stay another season because they still have eligibility so nothing is perfect. I’ll also point out that I pulled rosters from the NCAA database and I did find a couple of instances where their listed eligibility did not match the school’s website. In these cases, I went with the school’s website.

As I’ve mentioned in the past I sort of have a 45% rule of thumb when it comes to points. If a school loses that many points or more then it’s typically a sign they are going to struggle the next season. There are always exceptions and they tend to be with the traditionally powerhouses who are better equipped to replace the lost statistics. I also look at assists and digs but past research shows that these statistics are easier to replace.

Alright, back to the new content. Today I will go through the eleven teams in the ASC. We’ll look at the statistics loss going into 2020 and also how the 2019 losses played out this past season. Note – I will finish up this series of articles by looking at the Top 25 teams over the last 2-years plus some extra teams I like minus Stevens. I just couldn’t get behind their ranking this year so I left them off. (Yeah, it was rude, but come on.) Oh, I’ll also include the West Region ACAA teams in that article.

Here is a table of the ASC teams with their 2019 record and the anticipated statistic losses due to graduation.

Team	Record	Pts Lost	Assists	Digs
UMHB	24-8	57.4%	93.7%	52.8%
McMurry	18-10	53.2%	4.8%	38.3%
UTD	24-5	45.1%	49.2%	33.7%
Concordia	23-7	39.9%	42.8%	33.8%
Hardin-Simmons	12-13	36.9%	92.4%	44.4%
ETBU	14-14	23.0%	0.0%	19.6%
LeTourneau	18-14	22.5%	3.1%	17.1%
Sul Ross State	11-14	15.9%	5.6%	21.4%
Belhaven	8-22	9.8%	1.2%	4.5%
Howard Payne	2-25	0.4%	0.5%	4.6%
Louisiana College	3-22	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

I believe I may have saved the most interesting conference for last as five of the six teams that made the ASC Tournament are the teams that will lose the most statistics in 2020. The sixth team isn’t far behind.

Mary Hardin-Baylor has had quite a run but there is going to be work needed to keep it going in 2020. The Cru is losing 4 of their top players to graduation and although they have some really talented players returning that is a lot of points to replace. The other issue is that they take a big hit in assists and digs. They do have a setter on the roster returning but she only played in 5 matches all year. A bigger concern to me is the digs, which typically don’t worry me. The concern specifically with UMHB is that they had an issue in the service receive last season and they are losing 6-rotation outside Jenna Gillean. We really don’t have a history with their second year coach on recruiting but it’s safe to say that he’ll need a really good class to avoid a dip in their record in 2020.

McMurry is losing three of their top four hitters to graduation so another top team in the ASC that should struggle next year. On the plus side, they don’t have to worry about setting and they don’t take the hit in digs that UMHB does.

The defending ASC champions are losing 4 seniors off a relatively small roster of 14 players. All four were major contributors to their success and include their primary setter in Caroline Shecterle and their best hitter in Jillian Via. (Not to mention outstanding hitters in Alyssa Porter and Lauren Schiling.) UTD seems to recruit what they need each season but they did still reach that 45% points threshold I worry about.

Concordia had a fine season and won’t reach the 45% mark but they still lose enough statistics across the board to be concerned. The big loss is Tristyn Massey who will be tough to replace.

Hardin-Simmons was a bit of a pleasant surprise to me in 2019 but they are also getting hit across the board including losing their 5-1 setter and starting libero (not to mention their coach). They have a couple of really good rising sophomores now as their core but they will need to add to avoid a drop in their record in 2020.

The ETBU and LeTourneau losses will be almost identical going into next season. Both can overcome them and each has talent on the roster so expect more close battles between these rivals next season.

The next four teams finished at the bottom of the standings this past season but three of them will have points losses under 10% and none of the teams really lose too much in the other statistics. This is really a wonderful opportunity for these teams to exert themselves when the top of the conference are facing more significant losses. The key to these teams is keeping their underclassmen and building on their experience.

Looking at the conference as a whole and 2020 will be a lot of fun. “Fun” as in I have no clue what will happen. There is too much success built into the UT-Dallas and Mary Hardin-Baylor programs to get too concerned but you never know how things will turn out with these kinds of losses. It’s quite possible that this conference will not have a 20-win team next year although statistically speaking LeTourneau might be the best bet. We might see eleven teams finish somewhere between 12 and 19 wins and who knows how the conference plays out. Yeah…fun.

Here are the statistics from 2018 so let’s see how things played out this past season. Again, the record is from 2018 as are the statistic losses.

Team	Record	Pts Lost	Assists	Digs
Hardin-Simmons	15-11	59.6%	48.0%	68.2%
Belhaven	8-19	37.1%	41.5%	28.1%
McMurry	24-7	31.2%	8.5%	38.8%
Howard Payne	5-21	27.8%	0.7%	6.7%
ETBU	14-15	22.5%	45.2%	27.2%
UTD	23-10	15.0%	1.3%	13.2%
LeTourneau	7-21	3.9%	4.1%	24.7%
Sul Ross State	6-14	2.6%	0.3%	1.6%
Concordia	19-12	1.1%	0.0%	2.1%
Louisiana College	5-22	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
UMHB	28-5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Like for the other conferences, these numbers have not been adjusted for what actually happened because, frankly, that would just take too much work on my part. These numbers are what I had at this time last year.

Only Hardin-Simmons finished higher than 45% last season and although they did suffer a drop in their record, they were able to secure the top wild card spot in the ASC Tournament. Not too bad and frankly they surprised me a bit. Credit high-flying freshman Triniti Anderson for part of this success and I know it will be fun watching her the next 3-years.

Belhaven was able to hold steady last season despite some significant losses. It will be interesting to see if they can now build on this with more players returning. They certainly are helped by having their two best hitters being rising sophomores.

McMurry suffered a bit of a drop playing a softer schedule than I would have liked. Anything over 30% is kind of scary because you don’t really know how the program will react. The larger issue for the War Hawks is that they did drop and now have an even larger loss in statistics to deal with this upcoming season. Not a good sign.

Howard Payne did drop a bit but their losses were actually more than what was shown here. They brought in 12 freshmen last season so it will really be up to them and their growth as to how they do in 2020.

ETBU held steady last season but did miss out on the ASC Tournament, which had to be a disappointment. With that said, the rule change for qualification into that tournament did impact but finishing behind rival LeTourneau had to be a disappointment.

UT-Dallas did a good job improving their record in 2019 despite the fact their losses were more than what is shown here. They looked a little dicey early but recovered nicely to win the ASC Tournament.

The rest of the teams were all under 10% and we saw improvement from LeTourneau, Sul Ross State and Concordia with UMHB holding steady. It should be noted that LeTourneau actually had their best season in their history in 2019. An 11 win season for Sul Ross State was also impressive. Louisiana College couldn’t capitalize but this may have been more of a case of losing some players not noted in these statistics and the fact that the conference as a whole got better.

Overall, I really don’t know what to expect from the ASC in 2020. A lot is going to depend on the recruiting and my assumption is that UTD and UMHB will be able to restock. With that said, anything is possible and this is the most wide-open conference we’ll have in the West Region next season. With respect to the NCAA Tournament, the ASC has not been able to get a second team in for a few years now I don’t expect that to change next year based on these numbers. LeTourneau could be the sneaky pick to step up and challenge for a conference title but betting against UTD and UMHB is always problematic.