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Serve First or Receive First?
Introduction
One of the first decisions to make in gaining an advantage in the match is whether to serve first or receive first (should you win the coin toss). Mark Lebedew showed that teams will win approximately two thirds of the rallies as the passing team (or one third of rallies as the serving team) in the top professional leagues and international competition. This means it is better to choose to receive first as you are likely to win that first point. Lebedew also points out that if points are generally won by the passing team, the starting serving team will need to score two more points on serve to win the set whereas the starting passing team will only need to score one more point on serve to win the set. If the chance of winning the rally as the serving team is 33% then the starting serving team will have a harder job to win the set with all things being equal.
So the choice is clear at elite men’s level: receive first. However, does this hold true at lower levels of volleyball? John Foreman makes the John Foreman makes the point that at lower levels of volleyball, serving is more dominant so it could be advantageous to serve first. Also, is it the same for both genders? that at lower levels of volleyball, serving is more dominant so it could be advantageous to serve first. Also, is it the same for both genders?
So I wanted to find out, using data from various competition levels separated by gender, is it better to serve first or receive first.
Method
We can calculate the percentage of points won as the receiving team and serving team by using the sideout and break point percentageperformance indicators, respectively. The sideout percentage is the percentage of points won as the receiving team. The break point percentage is the percentage of points won as the serving team. The sideout percentage plus the break point percentage should equal to 100% as the rally point can only be won by the receiving or serving team.
Sideout % = Sideout Points Won/ Total Opposition Service AttemptsBreak Point % = Break Points Won/ Total Service AttemptsSideout % + Break Point % = 100%
I collected the sideout percentage and break point percentage of all match data that pertains to the competition level. Some competitions will only include the team data that I analyse for plus their opponents. This will mean that the competition level is generally centred around the teams I analyse for. The Women’s Super League will include more data from other teams as I have scouted more matches outside of Polonia SideOut London. There are seven competition levels I have been involved in, as seen below:
Competition Level | Teams Involved + Opponents | SeasonsChampions League Men | IBB Polonia London | 2019+2020Novotel Cup Men (Int.) | England, Scotland, Luxemburg, Iceland | 2020Men’s Super League | IBB Polonia London | 2018-20NEVZA Women’s Club Championship | Polonia SideOut London | 2017+2019Women’s Super League | Polonia SideOut London | 2015-20BUCS Tier 1 Women | City University London | 2017-20BUCS Tier 2 Women | City University London | 2016-17
Results + Discussion
Below is a table showing the sideout and break point percentage separated by competition level. The results show that the sideout percentage decreases with decreases in level for both the men’s and women’s volleyball. The highest sideout percentage is 66% at Champions League Level. This matches Mark Lebedew’s data at elite level. It looks like BUCS Tier 1 Women is the level where it would be slightly advantageous to serve first as the serving team won 52% of the rallies. It’s better at BUCS Tier 2 level as the break point percentage is 54%. This would reflect John Foreman’s observation that the lower the level, the more serving becomes more dominant.
Conclusion
Choosing whether to serve first or receive first depends on the level of competition. Simply put, receive first for higher level of volleyball and serve first for lower level.
The inflection point, where it becomes more advantageous to serve first, looks to be BUCS Tier 1 level for women. If you wanted to see what that level looks like, you can watch City University London videos down below. Where that inflection point is for men, I don’t have that data.
I do wonder how far up the break point percentage can go up at the lowest competition level. Perhaps 66% is the upper limit for break point percentage, like how 66% is the upper limit for sideout percentage at elite level. I know that BUCS Tier 3 level was pretty bad (we once won a match 25-3, 25-1, 25-7 basically through serving) so I could conceiveably see it going that high.
In any case, I would say before you decide to receive or serve first for your own team, I would try and measure your team’s own sideout and break percentage percentages before deciding whether to serve or receive first.
*** Update 11 October 2024 ***
As part of my UK Coaching Symposium presentation on performance stats, I referenced the above table as one way to improve our chances of winning, i.e. you should nearly always choose to receive first. I had forgotten it was better to serve first at Women’s BUCS Tier 1 and Tier 2 level. This was particularly pertinent because I am back at City University London (now City St George’s University) this season and they compete at BUCS Tier 2 level.
Since then, I got a little curious about what the data looks like now since I have coached in men’s BUCS with UCL and at London League level with Flaming Six Coyotes (Women) and Flaming Six Leopards (Men). There was also my stint with Hyderabad Black Hawks in India’s Prime Volleyball League. Also, I can add more data since statting for England and Team SideOut Polonia London. So what does the data look like now?
Well, the data is still clear. You should choose to receive first at higher levels of volleyball and choose to serve first at lower levels of volleyball. How so low should the level of volleyball be? For Men, I don’t have the data. Boys U18 isn’t the best level and the sideout % is 52%. I suspect at beginner’s and younger age group volleyball level where it is better to serve first. For women, it looks to be BUCS Tier 1 level. It could be at London Division 1 or Premier level too but it’s not too clear. Half of the London Division 1 data is when Flaming Six Coyotes won the league and half of the London Premier data is when Flaming Six Coyotes came last. It means the data is not representative of the league.
These are general trends and I would always recommend is to check your team’s own sideout and break point % as to whether to choose to receive or serve first.
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