Selection Morning Musing

The time change has me up early today. It also got me thinking of sunsets. My daughter and husband (not sure how I allowed that to happen) travel a lot as she works at American Airlines and has flight benefits. They recently commented that they haven’t been to many places where the sunset is better than here in Texas. I kind of chuckled but some of my most vivid memories of my first “real” job were sunsets. I started at General Dynamic here in Fort Worth back in ’87 and they employed at times over 30,000 people. Imagine the parking situation when they don’t have any parking garages. After the time change especially, when taking the half mile plus walk to my car after work, there would be these incredible sunsets. I always enjoyed those walks on those days. Now, remember, I did grow up in Los Angeles and spent a few sunsets on the Santa Monica pier so I’m not sure I 100% agree with my daughter and her first husband. Best sunsets without a water feature, maybe.

Remember that the selection show is at 11:30 am this morning. You should be able to access from here. If that doesn’t work, try here. A lot of times it needs a refresh and it typically just flashes on around the start time.

I love the selection reaction shots from teams so if anyone sees them posted on YouTube, link them in the comments to one of my posts.

One final projection to consider is from “Ned”. He posted it on VolleyTalk (link on the left side or pulldown). I’ve illegally cut/paste them here:

20 picks in order by estimated round picked:Hope Wisconsin-Whitewater Emory Colorado College Wisconsin-Stevens Point Chicago Susquehanna Bethel University Wesleyan University (CT) Denison Tufts Otterbein Southwestern Mary Hardin-Baylor RIT Springfield Muskingum Wisconsin-Oshkosh Middlebury Earlham

He differs from both me and Ricky by three sets of teams, each. In my case it’s UMHB, RIT and Earlham. He basically had Haverford blocking Region V, it appears. (My three teams he didn’t have are all out of that region; Haverford, Scranton and Stevenson.) Both Ricky and Ned have RIT and I mentioned in my write-up that I feel like the NCAA will select them.

I worry a lot prior to selection of conference regular season teams that are regionally ranked that get upset by teams not regionally ranked. Had a few instances of this but RIT (Clarkson) is the most likely team where it will result in a “lost at-large bid”. For Ned, it would also include Earlham and Mary Hardin-Baylor. I don’t count Denison because Wittenberg was going to get a spot.

With regards to my predictions, Region V will either come through for me or they won’t. They were a tough group to deal with during the process. Ned has the same New England teams as I do and it’s capped at 4. Getting 5 teams in will be tough but you can make the argument. I just feel that regions should try a little harder in getting out-of-region (area) matches on their schedule then what they typically do.

I’m also interested in Region VI. None of us had Birmingham-Southern or any other team besides Emory on our predictions. The National Selection Chair is from that region so I will not be surprised if another Region VI team gets selected.

The other job the selection committee has is figuring out regional sites while also keeping flights down to a minimum. We usually see 6 flights and there really isn’t a way around that number. (They could always go more but finances and Covid will really force them to keep it at the lowest number possible.) If there are three Texas teams (at least) then I really see a Trinity Regional. For those that believe finances play a role in selection (everyone involved always deny a “direct” involvement), if Mary Hardin-Baylor gets selected then add that to evidence locker the next time the argument breaks out. I was playing around with the NCAA member school map in an attempt to see where all of the schools are located (per my predictions) but it became too hard.

With the 10 region realignment, we get the full effect this season. How will the selection committee handle regional selection versus national selection? My argument is that the West Region (now Region X) is at a disadvantage due to travel restrictions (financial). Our records, SOS and Ranked Results are all impacted negatively by this. Based on the last regional ranking data sheet, Trinity was the only Region X team to have an SOS over 0.600. They did this by traveling to New England and California (East/West Challenge) and attracting quality teams to their two tournaments. They have financial resources that most schools do not. Some Region X schools can make no flights. In any other region you can make a quality schedule while driving, but those teams cannot in Region X. I think the NCAA needs to look at a way of handling this or altering the criteria to eliminate this bias.

Speaking of scheduling, if you are a team with NCAA aspirations then you should be finalizing your 2022 schedule. It’s probably too late to schedule some of the big programs. One thing I would look for in scheduling is how did the team do in 2021 and what is the makeup of their roster? Did they have a lot of senior contributors or will the bulk of their squad come back? You want to target the teams that are keeping their statistics from 2021. You can also look for those schools around the 0.500 mark that are bringing back their statistics. They probably are not going to hurt you too much with SOS. If anyone needs help with the legwork, send me an email or a DM. The caveat to these rules is that big programs will pretty much always remain big programs because they recruit so well. Don’t shy away from the big programs regardless of who they lose.

My Selection Eve stream of conciseness had almost 1000 views yesterday. Kind of cool and I’m glad we still have a lot of DIII volleyball nuts out there!

I got a really sweet email from one of my favorite non-Southwestern players who will be graduating this year. That is the currency this site runs on. I love hearing from coaches, parents, fans and players. Even the Trinity aligned. Of course, I do request that we keep it positive even if you have to lie to me.

Back to scheduling, which is one of my pet-peeves. I hope we don’t have the C-Word issues next season and I hope this means more flights for more teams.

Speaking of the C-Word, I have heard of a team or two that was impacted during the Conference Tournaments. Players I expected to be on the floor were just not there. Just stinks for them. I guess my fear now is the NCAA Tournament. Will we see a team have to forfeit due to the virus? Positive thoughts!!!!

Alright, I’ve been writing for an hour so time to start the day. Good luck to everyone today. I hate it to my core when a team that deserves to be in gets snubbed. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen in 4 hours.