Selection Eve Eve

Hey all! This post will be used to capture my thoughts as I go through my work and watch a bunch of finals today. Come back for updates. Add comments if there is something you want to know!

(11:30 a.m. Central)

Just getting started and noticed Wittenberg is playing DePauw in the NCAC Semifinal. DePauw is up 2-0, which is HUGE. Wittenberg is the only regionally ranked team in that conference so if they lose it means another bubble team for the at-large bids. I say bubble because Wittenberg is not assured of anything with their criteria this year. They’ve played a tough schedule and have a couple of a nice wins, BUT they also have a lot of losses to teams with a few going to be on the bubble.

BOOM! DePauw sweeps Wittenberg.

(11:40 a.m.)

Trying to catch-up on results. Just noticed that AVCA New England voter darling Amherst lost in their conference tournament quarterfinal to Middlebury. Amherst had no business receiving any votes this year for a weak schedule and not doing anything with it. Despite this, who could have guessed that they would be out of their tournament so early. *slowly raises hand*

Liberty League final will have at-large ramifications. Ithaca plays at Clarkson. I think if Ithaca wins then Clarkson gets an at-large reducing the available pool. If Clarkson wins then Ithaca is a bubble team.

(11:50 a.m.)

Here are the regionally ranked teams that are out of their conference tournaments. Doesn’t mean they can’t get an at-large, but it does mean they can’t get a Pool A.

St. Ben Augsburg WUSTL Loras Muskingum Wittenberg Mount Union Heidelberg Carnegie Mellon Salisbury Messiah Eau Claire Wellesley MIT Amherst Coast Guard NYU RIT Kean Cortland Wash & Lee Cal Lutheran

That’s about a third of the regionally ranked teams so far.

(Noon)

Late to mention this but congratulations to Hunter for winning the CUNY. There will be no at-large bids from this conference. They are the second team into the tournament (along with Whitworth).

UMass-Boston is playing Plymouth State in the Little East final right now. Boston up 2-0 but losing in the third. Plymouth State takes the third set.

NJAC has their final going on, too. Rowan and Stockton close in the first set. Stockton has a better chance at an at-large so bubble teams will be pulling for them.

(12:45)

Congratulations to UMass-Boston. They are going dancing!

(1:30)

Still early for the 1 pm matches but there are some underdogs doing well. Interesting to see how it shapes up.

(2:00)

Congratulations to Stockton. They beat Rowan in 4-sets. Stockton was a potential bubble team so this is a good result.

Endicott is also dancing as they win their tournament final. Add Babson to the party. They avenge their earlier loss to Emerson.

(2:30)

In the South Region, Virginia Wesleyan is in the process of upsetting Randolph-Macon. Up 2-1 and with a lead early in the fourth set. I think Randolph-Macon has a good chance at an at-large where Virginia Wesleyan does not. Also, if you are pulling for a Wittenberg at-large then know that Randolph-Macon has a head-to-head win on them.

Christopher Newport beat Mary Washington in 4-sets. Good result for the at-large teams.

St. John Fisher is dancing.

(2:45)

UT-Dallas beats UMHB. Another West team is in.

Randolph-Macon fought off a number of match points but end up falling to Virginia Wesleyan. Randolph-Macon is now on the bubble.

Notre Dame is in.

Otterbein/ONU is tight. Otterbein up 2-1 but ONU up 26-25 in fourth. And it’s going to a fifth set!

Grinnell comes back on St. Norbert and wins in 5-sets. This one surprised me.

(3:00)

Okay. I’m going to shutdown for the Southwestern/Colorado College match. Go Bucs!

(5:00)

Emory takes the UAA. Nice come back win for them. Out shopping…got tricked.

Just saw the Clarkson/Ithaca match scores. Wow! Clarkson with the win.

(6:30)

Okay…that was a long break.

Millikin is leading Carthage 2-1. This is another problem for the bubble teams.

Juniata’s win over Susquehanna earlier means a lower regionally ranked team gets the Pool A bid. I think both were/are in so no real issue here.

(7:00)

By my count, we have 23 teams in the tournament with still 20 more Pool A bids to assign tonight and tomorrow. For the bubble teams, the worst results were (in order):

• Virginia Wesleyan over Randolph-Macon

• DePauw winning (Wittenberg now an at-large bubble team)

• Juniata over Susquehanna

There were a couple of other upsets but nothing that would remotely impact the at-large bids. I think Randolph-Macon is a player for the at-large as is Wittenberg. That’s two more bubble teams that we weren’t planning on before today. As for Juniata, I thought they were in but you there was a little question behind it, I think. There is no question Susquehanna is in as an at-large.

Carthage and Millikin are late in set 5 if you can get there. Link on the Match Day post. Carthage holds off Millikin. Probably dooms Millikin but at least they are regionally ranked.

(7:30)

CMS sweeps Chapman.

By my count, we have 9 finals tomorrow. We have 8 on-going or will start soon and I have 25 teams marked as in. I’m one short somewhere. Need to find that missing conference/team.

Found the problem. I didn’t have Westminster listed. That’s 26 teams in the dance. 17 left to go.

(8:00)

Two more in the dance. Stevenson and Calvin. 28 teams in. 6 matches on-going or about to start.

I didn’t mention that Marymount won the Atlantic East. That conference does not have a Pool A bid but I think this removes any doubt that Marymount will get the Pool B this season. So, congrats to them.

(8:20)

The UMAC title goes to Northwestern in a sweep over Minnesota-Morris. Northwestern was regionally ranked so good result for the bubble teams.

Aurora has also won in a sweep. I missed them earlier.

Alright, 30 teams are in (9 tomorrow), which means I’ve got 4 still going. MacMurry/Westminster just started. Dubuque/Wartburg are tied 1-1. St. Thomas 2-1 over St. Olaf right now. Whitewater 2-1 over Stevens Point.

(8:45)

St. Thomas takes down St. Olaf. They really turned it on this last month or so. Of course, they were pretty good prior to that, too.

Whitewater and Stevens Point are going to a 5th set.

(9:00)

Dubuque beats Wartburg. I don’t think Wartburg has a really good chance at an at-large but you never know. Where they currently are in the regionally rankings mean they probably will be considered for multiple rounds.

Stevens Point up 11-8 over Whitewater in the 5th.

Stevens Point with the win. Tons of energy and a really fast attack. Fun to watch.

Only the SLIAC is left tonight.

(9:30)

I have to wait for the SLIAC result and the NWC is still playing tonight so I’ll start my regional ranking work. You see, in order to predict the field of 64 tomorrow, I have to know what the regional rankings will look like. I’ve never asked, but I believe the NCAA would not approve of me getting a copy of their work tomorrow so I’ve got to do it myself and hope I get the same results.

Starting with the Central because their matches are over. WUSTL is the problem child as they sit in 5th this past week. It’s possible they pass over both St. Ben and Augsburg. The SOS numbers (as far as I can tell) are virtually the same. WUSTL has the worst record of the three but did a second Carnegie Mellon win give them an edge in Ranked Wins? They also lost to Emory but the other two took ranked win losses this week, as well. I think I’m going to keep these three in the same order but this is something that the RAC could change.

The Central RAC also has Wartburg ahead of Northwestern, which I chalk up to the head-to-head win. I’d probably look at this more closely if Northwestern didn’t have a Pool A bid. Loras stays in the 8th spot although who knows who the RAC had at 9 since it kept these 8 teams in their rankings every week.

So, for the Central rankings, I’m keeping them as is for selection purposes. Both St. Thomas and Northwestern have Pool A bids so they are removed from at-large consideration.

Westminster (MO) is up 2-1 on MacMurry. Could we have two Westminster teams in the NCAA Tournament this year?

Let’s look at the Midwest because they are also done. Ricky, if you read this far down, let me know your thoughts on this (and the Central). I’m going to swap Stevens Point and Eau Claire. Eau Claire had a head-to-head advantage but that went away this week. I think the criteria now favors Stevens Point. I left Eau Claire ahead of Whitewater because nothing really changed between these two teams and the RAC made this move last week. My problem is that I really don’t agree with it. Whitewater has a better record. SOS is probably a wash. Whitewater has head-to-head. Eau Claire has Ranked Wins. Is the RAC saying that Eau Claire has common opponent and then secondary criteria favors them? That’s a stretch to me. I’m trying to mimic the committee so I’ll keep it this way but I don’t agree. I’m leaving Aurora next followed by Concordia and Millikin. Carthage, Stevens Point and Aurora have Pool A bids and will not be considered for an at-large bid.

Looking at New York, which is large but easy. I’m keeping them the same. It’s really all about Ithaca in this region and whether they can get an at-large. I don’t believe anyone else deserves one. With that said, this is the attitude that bites me in the arse with the national selection committee. They find gold in weird New York and New England teams every year. Clarkson, Stockton and Brockport all got Pool A bids.

(10:00)

The last Pool A bid is out and it goes to Westminster (MO). We’ve got 9 to go tomorrow. The big finals tomorrow will be John Hopkins/ Franklin & Marshall, Transylvania/Earlham, Bowdoin/Tufts and maybe Birmingham-Southern/Berry. Each of these could (and in some cases will) reduce the at-large pool if the lower ranked team wins. Four of the tournaments are winners get in only. There will be no at-large bids from those conferences. The 9th tournament is Trinity/Colorado College and I think both are in regardless of this outcome. Berry/BSC is probably the same way. It seems like the NWC is going to a 5th set for everyone tonight so I could keep with my work but the other 5 regions all have finals tomorrow. So, I’ll end this open dialogue and start another one tomorrow. Tomorrow, I’ll finish the regional rankings and then start selection. I’ll be writing everything down on the website prior to my final revel of the field of 64 so check back.