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Selection Eve (2023)
Let’s all get ready for Selection Eve! If you are unfamiliar with what this is going to be, here is a short summary. Today is Selection Eve with the NCAA Tournament bracket being announced tomorrow. In truth, most of the work by the (Regional Advisory Committee) RACs and Selection Committee is done today. At the same time, we still have a few tournaments going on today. So, I’ll list them below and I’ll also list the Pool A (AQ) bids. Finally, and this is where it gets fun, I’ll be updating this article all day with my thoughts on what is going on, how I think the regional rankings will look nationally and how my process is going predicting the at-large teams. So, check back often and I’ll be timestamping everything so you can figure out where you left off.
Adding this here. NCAA Selection Information for tomorrow is here.
AMCC Final
HCAC Final
NEWMAC Final
SAA Final
Centennial Final
Just five more Automatic Qualifiers (AQ) or Pool A bids to give out. The only final that is an issue is the SAA Final. Berry is going to get a bid while Sewanee will not. If Sewanee wins, then they get the AQ and Berry will take one of the at-large (or Pool C) bids. In the AMCC Final, only the winner will get a bid. In the rest, both teams will be getting a bid regardless of the result.
Pool B Information
I typically go through a bunch of stuff looking at the independents but this year it will go to Covenant. Without looking too close, no other team is really in play.
Pool A Information
Here are the teams with a Pool A bid (by Region). I will update later today with the results of the 5 finals going off at noon.
I Lasell, Wesleyan, Eastern Nazarene, UMass Dartmouth II Wentworth, Framinham St, MIT III Alfred, Ithaca, Manhattanville, SUNY Cortland IV Hunter, Stevens, Ramapo, Gallaudet, NYU V Marymount, Salisbury, Eastern, Juniata, Johns Hopkins VI Washington & Lee, Meredith, Berry VII Otterbein, Hope, Wittenberg, Bethany, Penn State Altoona VIII Edgewood, UW-Whitewater, Greenville, North Park, Transylvania IX Cornell, Northwestern, Coe, Gustavus Adolphus X Trinity, East Texas Baptist, CMS, Pacific Lutheran
Pool C Information
By around 3 pm, we’ll know the 42 teams with a Pool A bid and the one team with a Pool B bid. We won’t know until tomorrow which 21 teams received Pool C bids. The point of everything below is to figure out who I think the Selection Committee will choose. Keep in mind, this is not who I think they will choose. This is me trying my best to use up-to-date and outdated information to get the 10 regional rankings and then the 21 teams who will get an at-large bid. I have never gotten them all correctly. One big issue is that I don’t know the correct regional rankings. Late changes happen and they can swing things pretty easily. This is where I’ll also time stamp my entries so you can have a life today, unlike myself.
(9:23 am)
“Ned” has sent his data files. This is where I get my data that allows me to compare teams based on the criteria. He has a ton of stuff. He does two things that are interesting that I don’t use in my comparisons that I want to share. The first is his Pool C selections based on his QWI numbers. This is really a different index that looks at team’s schedules and results and assigns points for “better” wins. The second is a simulation he runs that uses some criteria (the best he can) and/or QWI. He has 25 runs using different parameters. At the end, he has a report that lists the teams and how often they are selected. None of this includes Head-to-Head or Common Opponent.
Here are the teams QWI thinks should be selected:
School | Region | QWI |
Wisconsin-Oshkosh | 8 | 91.965 |
Emory | 6 | 54.116 |
Gettysburg | 5 | 8.37 |
St. Olaf | 9 | 26.265 |
MIT | 2 | 19.281 |
Mary Washington | 6 | 25 |
WashU | 8 | 43.673 |
Transylvania | 8 | 33.513 |
La Verne | 10 | 30.257 |
Calvin | 7 | 38.438 |
Carnegie Mellon | 7 | 25.629 |
Wisconsin-Stevens Point | 8 | 42.714 |
Ohio Wesleyan | 7 | 17.797 |
Case Western Reserve | 7 | 24.262 |
Mount Union | 7 | 19.787 |
Babson | 2 | 5.337 |
Millikin | 8 | 40.571 |
Wisconsin-Platteville | 8 | 38.165 |
St. Benedict | 9 | 20.301 |
Stockton | 4 | -5.305 |
Ohio Northern | 7 | 19.08 |
You’ll notice that QWI doesn’t like the New England teams and their schedules. No Region I teams made it and only 2 total did. You may also notice that QWI doesn’t care about regional rankings. Some of these teams could be blocked by others. Only one team from the two New York regions (NYU has an AQ). Only La Verne from Region X.
Here are the teams that were selected during “Ned’s” 25-round simulation:
There were 16 teams that were picked all 25 times. One of the teams is Mount Union who has been blocked in my mock exercises. In this case, the simulations like the Region VII teams more than I thought the criteria should. This is very Region VII and VIII intensive. It’s probably right but I don’t think humans with self-interest (protect their own region) will agree. If only we had 29 at-large picks, then they could all get in.
Millikin and UW-Platteville only missed out on one simulation. That’s 18 teams total so only 3 spots left! Every team starting with St Ben on down would be your bubble teams based on these simulations.
This next table shows the schools that were considered and how many times they were left at the table without a bid:
Not good for the Region X fans out there. Colorado College was considered in every simulation multiple times per simulation and never got in. Chris Newport is interesting because I had them getting in but they definitely have a lot of warts. Franklin & Marshall was another team that I could see sneaking in but it would mean other teams would need to get in first. Remember that F&M got moved up the rankings and Stevenson was dropped with Swarthmore brought in. Those teams are blocked by F&M based on these simulations. Middlebury is interesting because based on the criteria they were a pretty easy selection in my mocks. They did lose early in their conference tournament.
All fun information but none of it matters.
(10:00 am)
The 5 finals yet to play impact Regions II, V, VI, VII and VIII. I’m not sure if they impact the rankings all that much but it’s pretty safe to start looking at the other regions and see if I can determine their rankings. I will start with Region I.
(10:10 am)
Here were their Regional Rankings last week with the teams in BOLD needing at-large selections:
Wesleyan
Middlebury
Tufts
Colby
Williams
Trinity (CT)
Bowdoin
One problem with regions that really only have one good conference is that a lot of teams will need an at-large bid. All of these teams are out of the NESCAC. It sure does help them with Ranked Results, however. Plymouth State was ranked in this region the first week before the NESCAC got upset that they didn’t’ have enough teams in and were removed.
The NESCAC final was Williams and Wesleyan but that obviously doesn’t impact these rankings in a direct manner. It will help Williams but they don’t elevate to second automatically. Time for some comparisons but I have to remind everyone that my SOS numbers are “Ned’s”. They are going to be off slightly and they will mess me up somewhere.
Middlebury/Tufts (M/M/M/M/?) – Middlebury
That’s a 4-0 slaughter without looking at Ranked Results. For those that didn’t follow my mocks. The letter is which school “won” the criterion. The order of the criteria is Head-to-Head/Common Opponent/Record/SOS/Ranked Results. If there is an ‘X’ then it’s a tie. If there is a ‘?’ then it means I need to look at this a bit more (only done with Ranked Results).
Middlebury/Colby (C/M/C/M/?) – Middlebury
This is a tie. The region liked Middlebury more in the past so I’ll stick with them. Their Ranked Results are pretty even but “Ned” throws me an RPI number and record against RPI Top 100 and those favor Middlebury. Not a valid criterion but something that can help me see if they played tougher teams and use for Ranked Results.
Middlebury/Williams (W/M/W/M/?) – Middlebury
Yikes. This is tough. Do you respect the 2 Head-to-Head wins? Humans do but the criteria doesn’t all the time. The Ranked Results are basically the same. Middlebury has a win over Springfield. Middlebury also has a win over Cortland while Williams has a win over New Paltz. Cortland is ranked higher in that region. Edge goes to Middlebury so they win this comparison. To me, Williams is better but I have to go with the criteria.
Tufts/Colby (C/T/C/T/T) – Tufts
No much changed from the last rankings in that they both lost. Tufts has wins over Springfield and Trinity so they get the edge. Another case where the better team loses in the criteria.
Tufts/Williams (X/T/W/X/T) – Tufts
Ranked Results pushes this over the line for Tufts.
Colby/Williams (W/C/C/W/?) – Williams
This is really close. I’m taking Williams because it’s too close and I’ll value the head-to-head. I also think they did better in the tournament so their Last 25% is better (Secondary Criteria).
Here is my new Region I Rankings (only need the teams that need a bid):
Middlebury
Tufts
Williams
Colby
Trinity (CT)
Bowdoin
I’m not too concerned with the teams after Colby. They don’t have a chance at a bid. Will the RAC agree? No idea. I reserve the right to revisit all rankings later in the day. They easily could have Williams over Tufts or even behind Colby. I may consider both Tufts and Williams during selection.
(11:10 am)
One more thought on Region I. I think I would have Williams ahead of Tufts. Tufts won’t be able to get by Colorado College but Williams will. If it’s close, which it is, I’d go Williams. Jumping to Region III and here was their last ranking:
Ithaca
SUNY Cortland
SUNY New Paltz
Rochester
St John Fisher
William Smith
Manhattanville
This region hasn’t made a change through every round of rankings. I think New Paltz is the only team with a chance but I’ll compare them against Rochester and St John Fisher.
New Paltz/Rochester (X/X/N/R/?) – New Paltz
This is really close. Rochester beat Middlebury. I still think the edge is New Paltz in part because nothing has really changed from last week’s rankings.
New Paltz/St John Fisher (X/N/N/X/?) – New Paltz
Easy win.
I’m going to keep this region’s rankings the same. Here are the teams that need a bid:
SUNY New Paltz
Rochester
St John Fisher
William Smith
Early lunch!
(11:45 am)
Time for Region IV and here was their ranking:
NYU
Stockton
Kean
Stevens
Ramapo
William Paterson
Montclair State
The only change that occurred over the last 3 weeks was Montclair State replacing Lebanon Valley, but we won’t get past Kean so no worries there. I’m only going to look at Stockton and Kean.
Stockton/Kean (S/S/X/X/?) – Stockton
Seems like Stockton has this without a need to look at Ranked Results. I will keep this ranking the same. Here are the teams needing bids:
Stockton
Kean
William Paterson
Montclair State
(11:50 am)
Those are some of the easier regions we’ll look at although Region X will be pretty easy, I fear. Now we jump all the way down to Region IX. Here were their ranked teams (BOLD need bids):
Northwestern
Gustavus Adolphus
Cornell College
St Olaf
Saint Benedict
St Catherine
Nebraska Wesleyan
This region also ranked Coe and Dubuque. Coe received an AQ so no worries there. I doubt I will need to worry about Dubuque. This region had a lot of movement within the rankings so I figure these comparisons will be close.
St Olaf/St Ben (O/B/O/B/O) – St Olaf
St Olaf gets this comparison. I just eyeballed St Ben and St Kate and St Ben will win that. I also eyeballed Nebraska Wesleyan and they are pretty close in some cases. Ranked Results ends it for him. I then looked at Dubuque and I think they should be ahead of Nebraska Wesleyan (D/D/N/D/?). No need to go to Ranked Results. I guess we have another pretty easy regional. Here is the order of the teams needing a bid:
St Olaf
St Benedict
St Catherine
Dubuque
Nebraska Wesleyan
All of the finals are about to start.
(12:05 pm)
Time for Region X and then I’ll see about the other regions where matches are still ongoing. Here was their last ranking:
Trinity
CMS
La Verne
Colorado College
Pomona-Pitzer
Whittier
East Texas Baptist
This region also had Texas Lutheran ranked and we learned on the ETBU/UMHB stream that someone leaked that Mary Hardin-Baylor was 9th. I don’t think it will matter past the 4th spot. I eyeballed La Verne and CC and it comes up La Verne. Now for the comparisons that matter:
Colorado College/Pomona-Pitzer (X/C/C/C/?) – Colorado College
Love it when it’s easy.
Colorado College/Whittier (X/C/C/C/?) – Colorado College
Ditto
PP/Whittier (X/P/P/X/?) – Pomona-Pitzer
I’d love to do a blog on the West Region. It’s so easy.
I’m not going to worry about TLU or UMHB. Here is the order of the teams needing bids:
La Verne
Colorado College
Pomona-Pitzer
Whittier
Texas Lutheran
Mary Hardin-Baylor
(12:15 pm)
All matches are going. I’ve got sound up for Gettysburg/Johns Hopkins. It’s the Gettysburg Bullets. I wonder if they’ve had any static over their name. I never understood the issue with Bullets. Bullets don’t kill people, guns do. Wait. They may not be right. That ceiling is low at Johns Hopkins. Shame they are a poor school that can’t afford a new facility.
With MIT and Springfield playing and with whomever losing going to be the top seed needing a bid, I’m going to look at that region (Region II). Here was their ranking:
Springfield
MIT
Babson
Coast Guard
Emerson
Smith
Clark (MA)
Wheaton (MA) was also ranked but were replaced by Clark. All eight teams are out of the NEWMAC. Just silly. Remember, that either Springfield or MIT will need a bid and for the purpose of this, the loser will retain the top spot because they should.
Babson/Coast Guard (B/B/B/B/?) – Babson
Easy.
Coast Guard/Emerson (C/C/C/E?) – Coast Guard
Same thing happens with Smith. I don’t think this region gets past Coast Guard but I’ll check Emerson/Smith.
Emerson/Smith (E/S/E/E/?) – Emerson
So, this region seems like it will remain static. Here is the order:
Springfield
Babson
Coast Guard
Emerson
Smith
Clark (MA)
From the finals; Berry up 1-0, Mt St Joseph 1-0, JHU 1-0 and Springfield 1-0. Altoona was down big but are now up late in their match. The Alfred/Altoona match is the one without a top team but it’s a true play-in match. Those are always fun.
(12:35 pm)
Alfred State with the 1-0 lead.
With Johns Hopkins and Gettysburg playing, I think I can do Region V. They were interesting and important so let’s get to them. By the way, I’m way ahead of schedule this year. Here was their ranking:
Juniata
Johns Hopkins
Salisbury
Gettysburg
Franklin & Marshall
Swarthmore
Eastern
This region also ranked Stevenson but were replaced by Swarthmore. I will include them in this. I also want to look at Scranton. Regardless of the result of the JHU/Gettysburg match, the top 4 is set with three of them having bids (as does Eastern). The loser of this match will be the first off the board in this region.
F&M/Swarthmore (F/X/F/X/?) – Franklin & Marshall
No need to look further, but I did. Both teams have 4 ranked wins. F&M has Montclair State, Whittier, Pomona-Pitzer and Swarthmore. That’s not great. Swarthmore has Smith, New Paltz, Salisbury and Johns Hopkins (!). Interesting for later, I think.
F&M/Stevenson (X/S/S/X/?) – Stevenson
Stevenson’s ranked wins (3) are Gettysburg, Kean and Stockton. That’s much better than F&M’s. This really isn’t close so I’m unsure why F&M got moved up last week and Stevenson dropped.
F&M/Scranton (X/F/F/S/?) – Franklin & Marshall
Scranton’s wins are Smith, Salisbury and Manhattanville. I give the nod to F&M here.
Swarthmore/Stevenson (X/St/St/X/?) – Stevenson
No idea how Stevenson got dropped.
Swarthmore/Scranton (Sw/Sw/Sw/Sc/?) – Swarthmore
Stevenson/Scranton (St/Sc/St/Sc/?) – Stevenson
Ranked Results tips the scales here for Stevenson. Here is my new rank of the teams needing bids:
Gettysburg
Stevenson
Franklin & Marshall
Swarthmore
Scranton
Did this RAC hide Stevenson for a week? Did they make a mistake last week? Did the criteria just change so much that this happened? Did I make a mistake or did my SOS numbers fool me? Any of those could be correct.
Are we really going to see a regional ranking where a team not published is going to jump in and over to the point where they really are the first team to be considered (JHU or Gettysburg will get picked quickly)?
Springfield up 2-0 on MIT. The other matches look close. Altoona looks like they are going to tie it up.
Transy ties it up. The Transy fan needs to sit down in front of the camera!
JHU up 2-0. Berry up 2-0.
(1:05 pm)
Let’s look at Region VI. Berry is playing but that is not going to impact the rankings. They will be getting in. Here was their last ranking:
Emory
Mary Washington
Berry
Christopher Newport
Virginia Wesleyan
Covenant
Centre
This region modified some seeding but never brought a new team in. Washington & Lee was an option but they got an AQ. There are a number of top teams needing a bid here. It’s kind of funny but they just didn’t do well in their tournaments. I’m not worried about the top 3 so I’ll start with CNU.
CNU/VA Wesleyan (X/V/V/C/?) – Virginia Wesleyan
According to the criteria, Virginia Wesleyan should be ahead of CNU.
CNU/Centre (Ce/X/Ce/CNU/CNU) – Christopher Newport
I eyeballed this and then had to do it proper. Centre almost wins this behind their head-to-head win. Ranked Results gets them tied. I believe humans will look at this and take CNU over Centre. Yes they lost to them but the body of work is better. I mentioned above somewhere that CNU had warts. They developed a few more since last week. I’ll also say, the RAC could go Centre ahead of them.
VA Wesleyan/Centre (X/C/V/C/V) – Virginia Wesleyan
So close again! SOS may be a tie, which is why I’ll give this to Virginia Wesleyan. They also have a better RPI and Top 100 record. I will say, Centre is interesting and were probably two ranked wins from being a lock to make it as an at-large.
Here is my new ranking of teams needing bids (excluding Berry because I think they are going to win):
Emory
Mary Washington
Virginia Wesleyan
Christopher Newport
Centre
(1:20 pm)
Ugh. Down to Regions VII and VIII. The Alfred/Altoona match doesn’t impact anything so let’s get it done. Here was their last ranking (Region VII):
Hope
Calvin
Carnegie Mellon
Otterbein
Ohio Wesleyan
Case Western Reserve
Mount Union
This region had Albion ranked week one and Ohio Northern went out week 2. I think both are worth including. I am not worried about either Calvin or CMU. Calvin only has 3 ranked win and they all happened by mid-September. Still, their Record and SOS will be enough coupled with those 3 wins.
JHU just swept the Bullets. Berry couldn’t finish set three and will now go to a fourth up 2-1. Transy is up 2-1. Springfield up 2-1. Altoona up 2-1.
OWU/CWRU (X/O/C/C/?) – Case Western Reserve
Let’s look at the ranked wins. OWU has Mount Union, Calvin and Otterbein. All early in the year. CWRU has NYU, Rochester, Otterbein and WashU. Edge goes to CWRU.
OWU/Mount Union (O/O/X/X/?) – Ohio Wesleyan (maybe)
SOS is really close and Mount Union could be above the tolerance on the official number. I would then give the Ranked Results to Mount Union for a tie. Then I might even break the tie for them. I have SOS at 0.572 for Mount Union and 0.561 for Ohio Wesleyan. I will have to consider this during selection. (Update – Came back to this. The spread on the last data sheet was 0.005. Unlikely Mount Union would increase to the point they got outside of the tolerance used for comparisons. I think they are in trouble and it may come down to those few points.)
I have OWU over Albion but it’s close. With Ohio Northern:
OWU/Ohio Northern (ONU/OWU/OWU/ONU/?) – Ohio Wesleyan
ONU’s wins are CWRU, OWU and Mount Union. I think I like OWU’s wins better.
CWRU/Mount Union (M/C/C/X/?) – Case Western Reserve
Mount Union’s wins are CWRU, Carnegie Mellon, Salisbury and Johns Hopkins. That’s really close but CWRU has less “bad losses” so I’ll give them the edge. CWRU is really close to the other two teams but they get the edge in both comparisons.
With Mount Union, I like them better than Albion despite the head-to-head loss because of Ranked Results (3-2). Albion also falls short of Ohio Northern. Mount Union and ONU tie with ONU having the head-to-head. Mount Union’s Ranked Results which tips it in their favor (3-2). Here are my rankings:
Calvin
Carnegie Mellon
Case Western Reserve
Ohio Wesleyan
Mount Union
Ohio Northern
Albion
For national selection, Mount Union is better than Ohio Wesleyan and OWU has the potential to block them. I can make them ahead of OWU as I mentioned above. Will the RAC do this? After some thought this afternoon, I might.
Springfield has two match points but can’t get it done. MIT forces a fifth set. Transylvania just beat Mt St Joseph 3-1. Penn State Altoona also wins in 4-sets. They had an interrupted celebration as there was a question as to whether the player had a pancake or not.
Berry also wins in 4. There is only one match left and it’s a 5th set.
Huge comeback by MIT to force the fifth and then blow the doors off after the turn. We now have all of the Pool A teams!
(2:35 pm)
We have all of the teams that get the AQ! I did some cleanup in this article with that information. I also was thinking more about that OWU/Mount Union situation. I’ll leave it for the selection portion but I’m sensing a block.
I only have one region left and it’s the biggest and best this year. Region VIII and here was their last ranking:
UW-Oshkosh
UW-Whitewater
North Park
WashU
Mount St Joseph
Transylvania
UW-Stevens Point
Despite the depth in this region, they never ranked anyone else. They moved teams around. Other teams we need to consider are UW-Platteville, Millikin, Carthage, UW-Eau Claire, IWU and UW-River Falls. I may not get through all of them or I may wait until selection. Let’s see how much my brain can handle. I’m not going to worry about UWO, WashU or even Mt St Joseph. MSJ will have one of the best records of the at-large teams and a good Ranked Results. Their SOS is a bit average but I still think they make it in. So, I’ll start with UWSP and the teams mentioned.
UWSP/UWP (P/X/P/S/?) – UW-Stevens Point
Stevens Point has held off Platteville for three weeks despite the head-to-head loss. UWP has 2 ranked wins in Colorado College and UWSP. They have a bunch of wins in region below them. UWSP has CNU, St Catherine, North Park and Saint Benedict. UWSP gets the edge there. These teams are close and I don’t know how Second Criteria will finish but my best guess is that it will favor UWSP so they get the nod.
UWSP/Millikin (X/X/S/X/?) – UW-Stevens Point
Millikin’s wins are Kean, Ithaca, Centre and Calvin. Slight edge to Millikin. Is it enough to tie and then win? It’s so close and I’m going to say if the RAC wanted that to happen it would have happened already. I eyeballed Carthage and the edge goes to UWSP. I’m going to leave them 7th.
UWP/Millikin (P/X/P/M/M) – Millikin
That SOS is tight but giving it to Millikin there. Millikin also gets the Ranked Results. Millikin probably has better Secondary Criteria with Platteville falling off here at the end. Also, non-conference SOS is probably better. Eyeballed Carthage and that was an easy win for UWP. I actually have UW-Eau Claire over UW-Platteville due to Common Opponent, SOS and Ranked Results. Both comparisons with IWU and River Falls are close. The edge both times to UWP.
Millikin/Carthage (X/M/M/C/M) – Millikin
Ranked results tips it in their favor. Carthage’s wins are Cornell and Gustavus Adolphus. Close. Looking at Eau Claire and they are close to everyone. Their ranked wins are Whittier, Saint Ben, St Catherine, Cornell and UWSP twice. I’ll still take Millikin over them. IWU is close, too, but my brain is already hurting. Millikin. I also like them over River Falls.
Ugh. So much to consider. I have UWSP followed by Millikin and then UWP for now. I have UWP over Carthage but losing to UWEC. I probably have Carthage over UWEC. Carthage and UWRF is tight as is IWU. Basically throwing UWP, UWEC, UWRF, IWU and Carthage in a mixer and any way they come out is right and wrong.
Here are my rankings. If Ricky yells at me I might change them:
UW-Oshkosh
WashU
Mt St Joseph
UW-Stevens Point
Millikin
UW-Platteville
Carthage
IWU
UW- Eau Claire
UW-River Falls
Ugh. To be perfectly frank, I have no idea about how many I need and who they will be or who will be selected.
Looking at these teams from a national view point, I think UWSP and Millikin get in. UWP is tough because of their Ranked Results but they have a nice combo of Record and SOS. Carthage has SOS and hurts in the other two areas. Same story for IWU. Carthage has the head-to-head and slightly better numbers than IWU so a better option. Eau Claire’s record is not good. Barely over 0.500. Good SOS and decent Ranked Results. They may be the smart choice if just looking from a criteria standpoint (if humans weren’t involved). River Falls is slightly below on the Record to most and SOS although both are decent. Not a bad Ranked Results. What hurts them is not being outstanding in one of those criteria.
Jeez. That took almost an hour.
(3:50 pm)
Selection time. I’m going to list the regions here in order and hope that I didn’t mess up. “Ned” has sent my updated files that include today’s matches so I’ll use that data here. This only includes the teams that need bids.
Region I
Middlebury
Tufts
Williams
Colby
Trinity (CT)
Bowdoin
Region II
Springfield
Babson
Coast Guard
Emerson
Smith
Clark (MA)
Region III
SUNY New Paltz
Rochester
St John Fisher
William Smith
Region IV
Stockton
Kean
William Paterson
Montclair State
Region V
Gettysburg
Stevenson
Franklin & Marshall
Swarthmore
Scranton
Region VI
Emory
Mary Washington
Virginia Wesleyan
Christopher Newport
Centre
Region VII
Calvin
Carnegie Mellon
Case Western Reserve
Ohio Wesleyan
Mount Union
Ohio Northern
Albion
Region VIII
UW-Oshkosh
WashU
Mt St Joseph
UW-Stevens Point
Millikin
UW-Platteville
Carthage
IWU
UW- Eau Claire
UW-River Falls
Region IX
St Olaf
St Benedict
St Catherine
Dubuque
Nebraska Wesleyan
Region X
La Verne
Colorado College
Pomona-Pitzer
Whittier
Texas Lutheran
Mary Hardin-Baylor
My greatest fear right now is that I left a team off. Ugh.
(3:55 pm)
There are 10 teams I feel pretty good about looking at their criteria so I’m just going to take them here. Welcome to the Tournament! (I will have a running list of picked teams at the bottom of this article so find them there. The first 10 are in regional order.)
That leaves 11 spots to fill. Here are the 10 teams under consideration.
Middlebury (0.636/0.642/6-8) Coast Guard (0.690/0.547/5-6) SUNY New Paltz (0.724/0.530/4-5) Stockton (0.656/0.589/6-5) Stevenson (0.759/0.589/3-5) Virginia Wesleyan (0.813/0.570/3-5) Case Western Reserve (0.733/0.580/4-6) UW-Stevens Point (0.688/0.625/4-6) St Olaf (0.700/0.555/7-3) La Verne (0.852/0.528/5-4)
From an accuracy point-of-view, I’m worried that I elevated teams that are immediately being considered. It is what it is.
(4:13 pm)
Going down the line the first time for the 11th pick. Middlebury takes down Coast Guard (X/M/C/M/M). Also take down New Paltz (X/M/N/M/M). 2-1 over Stockton with Ranked Results to go. Stockton was surprised in their tournament so I haven’t looked at them much. Here are their ranked wins: Montclair State, Ramapo, Kean, William Paterson (twice) and Stevens. Not great. Stevenson is next and they are up 2-1 with Ranked Results to go. Their wins are Gettysburg, Kean and Stockton. Middlebury’s are Cortland, Tufts, Bowdoin, Springfield, Babson and Trinity (CT). Ugh. I’ll consider that Middlebury and keep them but see how close that is. And Stevenson may not be considered at all by the actual selection committee. VA Wesleyan is a tie so we have to look at the Ranked wins for them: Chris Newport, Salisbury and Swarthmore. So, close but I’ll stick with Middlebury. CWRU has a 2-1 lead. Their ranked wins are: NYU, Rochester, Otterbein and WashU. I’m sticking with CWRU here. CWRU and UWSP tie. UWSP wins are Chris Newport, St Catherine, North Park and Saint Benedict. Keeping CWRU. I’m taking CWRU over both St Olaf (2-0-?) and La Verne (2-1). Now, I would normally double-check some teams I’ve looked at with Middlebury but it’s early and I’m not worried of the order of selection. Case Western Reserve gets our 11th at-large bid. In comes Ohio Wesleyan.
(4:30 pm)
Over 30 minutes a pick is not fun. First one is always difficult and long. Here are the teams:
Middlebury (0.636/0.642/6-8) Coast Guard (0.690/0.547/5-6) SUNY New Paltz (0.724/0.530/4-5) Stockton (0.656/0.589/6-5) Stevenson (0.759/0.589/3-5) Virginia Wesleyan (0.813/0.570/3-5) Ohio Wesleyan (0.714/0.562/3-4) UW-Stevens Point (0.688/0.625/4-6) St Olaf (0.700/0.555/7-3) La Verne (0.852/0.528/5-4)
Going back to Middlebury as they made it past Virginia Wesleyan. Middlebury ties OWU so we need to look at OWU’s ranked wins: Mount Union, Calvin and Otterbein. I probably like that better but I’ll stick with Middlebury because I think that’s what the committee will do. This is really close with UWSP but I’m going UWSP here. Small margins but I like their Ranked Results a tad more and I think the Secondary Criteria would favor them here. St Olaf has a head-to-head win over UWSP. They tie 2-2 so Olaf’s wins are Otterbein, Nebraska Wesleyan, St Catherine, Northwestern, Saint Ben twice and UWSP. I’m taking St Olaf here. I also have them over Middlebury. I also have them over La Verne. Good ranked wins for St Olaf as they are the 12 pick. In comes St Benedict.
(4:45)
15 minutes. Better. Here are the teams:
Middlebury (0.636/0.642/6-8) Coast Guard (0.690/0.547/5-6) SUNY New Paltz (0.724/0.530/4-5) Stockton (0.656/0.589/6-5) Stevenson (0.759/0.589/3-5) Virginia Wesleyan (0.813/0.570/3-5) Ohio Wesleyan (0.714/0.562/3-4) UW-Stevens Point (0.688/0.625/4-6) Saint Benedict (0.630/0.594/3-7) La Verne (0.852/0.528/5-4)
Starting with UWSP. They destroy Saint Benedict which is always restful for me doing this. They tie La Verne. Here are their wins: St Catherine, Whittier (twice), CMS and Pomona-Pitzer. That’s really close but I’ll show some regionally tough love and take UW- Stevens Point as my 13th selection. In comes Millikin.
(4:50 pm)
5 minutes. They all won’t be like that. Here are the teams:
Middlebury (0.636/0.642/6-8) Coast Guard (0.690/0.547/5-6) SUNY New Paltz (0.724/0.530/4-5) Stockton (0.656/0.589/6-5) Stevenson (0.759/0.589/3-5) Virginia Wesleyan (0.813/0.570/3-5) Ohio Wesleyan (0.714/0.562/3-4) Millikin (0.667/0.616/4-6) Saint Benedict (0.630/0.594/3-7) La Verne (0.852/0.528/5-4)
Starting with Middlebury (remember them?). Millikin is up 2-1 so we look at Millikin’s ranked wins: Kean, Ithaca, Centre and Calvin. Ithaca and Calvin are pretty good. I have to stick with Millikin here. I spot checked them against a couple of previous teams and they look good. They are up 2-1 on Saint Ben so here are their wins: Eastern, WashU and St Catherine. Have to stick with Millikin here. La Verne is up 2-1 on Millikin and they have that CMS win. This is where it gets tough. La Verne is closer to Middlebury and Saint Ben so there may be some argument here. I’m going La Verne as my 14th pick. In comes Colorado College.
(5:00 pm)
Here are the teams under consideration.
Middlebury (0.636/0.642/6-8) Coast Guard (0.690/0.547/5-6) SUNY New Paltz (0.724/0.530/4-5) Stockton (0.656/0.589/6-5) Stevenson (0.759/0.589/3-5) Virginia Wesleyan (0.813/0.570/3-5) Ohio Wesleyan (0.714/0.562/3-4) Millikin (0.667/0.616/4-6) Saint Benedict (0.630/0.594/3-7) Colorado College (0.621/0.584/2-6)
It really comes down to Millikin and Colorado College and it’s a non starter as Millikin has Record and SOS on them. They also had Common Opponent just to kick dirt on them and then walk over them. My 15th pick is Millikin. In comes (maybe) UW-Platteville.
(5:05)
Here are the teams as things start to get serious.
Middlebury (0.636/0.642/6-8) Coast Guard (0.690/0.547/5-6) SUNY New Paltz (0.724/0.530/4-5) Stockton (0.656/0.589/6-5) Stevenson (0.759/0.589/3-5) Virginia Wesleyan (0.813/0.570/3-5) Ohio Wesleyan (0.714/0.562/3-4) UW-Platteville (0.724/0.603/2-4) Saint Benedict (0.630/0.594/3-7) Colorado College (0.621/0.584/2-6)
Back to Middlebury! Our old friend! This is a tie but I’m giving Ranked Results to Middlebury to push them to 2-1. UWP’s wins are Colorado College and UWSP. Middlebury covers Saint Benedict without an issue and do the same to Colorado College. Our 16th pick is Middlebury. In comes Tufts (or is it Williams). Regardless, there are just 5 spots to award. The same thing is I have to start from the top.
(5:08)
Starting from the top. Here are the teams:
Tufts (0.583/0.606/6-8) Coast Guard (0.690/0.547/5-6) SUNY New Paltz (0.724/0.530/4-5) Stockton (0.656/0.589/6-5) Stevenson (0.759/0.589/3-5) Virginia Wesleyan (0.813/0.570/3-5) Ohio Wesleyan (0.714/0.562/3-4) UW-Platteville (0.724/0.603/2-4) Saint Benedict (0.630/0.594/3-7) Colorado College (0.621/0.584/2-6)
Tufts has the advantage on Coast Guard and their ranked wins (for future use) are Trinity, Trinity (CT) twice, Williams, Springfield and Bowdoin. Tufts covers New Paltz 3-1. They also lead Stockton who I had to search back up for their ranked wins. Not impressed. Tufts takes Stevenson 2-1 due to Ranked Results. I figure Tufts will take Ranked Results on Virginia Wesleyan for a 2-1 win. (I don’t remember VWU beating Trinity or Springfield. (Their wins are CNU, Salisbury and Swarthmore.) I’m also taking Tufts over Ohio Wesleyan due to Ranked Results. UW-Platteville covers Tufts with Common Opponent and Record (SOS is a tie). Checking back down the line, I could make a case for Ohio Wesleyan so just know the committee might go that way. They could also go VWU. I like UWP over both Saint Benedict and Colorado College. So, we have Tufts, UVW, Ohio Wesleyan and UWP. One big problem with Tufts is that they don’t get by Colorado College.
Here’s the thing. If you do this long enough, you reach a point in your mock selections that things get murky and here we are. I’m not that comfortable with UWP. They were snubbed last year and their Ranked Results aren’t really that great. It’s their combination of Record and SOS that put them here and I’m going to consider that good enough. UW-Platteville is my 17th selection. In comes Carthage (maybe).
(5:36 pm)
Here are the teams.
Tufts (0.583/0.606/6-8) Coast Guard (0.690/0.547/5-6) SUNY New Paltz (0.724/0.530/4-5) Stockton (0.656/0.589/6-5) Stevenson (0.759/0.589/3-5) Virginia Wesleyan (0.813/0.570/3-5) Ohio Wesleyan (0.714/0.562/3-4) Carthage (0.581/0.633/2-7) Saint Benedict (0.630/0.594/3-7) Colorado College (0.621/0.584/2-6)
I was getting Carthage’s statistics and they were next to Eau Claire’s. UWEC is a better national pick. Lower Record and SOS (slightly) but a much better Ranked Results. Sticking with Carthage because I’m tired. We’re going with Tufts but there is going to be an issue with Colorado College. Tufts covers Carthage. I checked UWEC for grins and it’s tighter. Murky. Tufts also covers St Benedict but loses to Colorado College. I was struggling with Williams and Tufts and Williams can go in over Colorado College. I’m not sure Tufts belongs in the NCAA Tournament but they are the easiest path this round. If I’m the Region X RAC Chair, I’m yelling into the phone. The problem with Colorado College is that they lose to others in this list so it’s not as simple as taking both. Tufts is the 18th selection. In comes Williams.
(5:50 pm)
Here are the teams. Having to start from the top again.
Williams (0.640/0.610/6-8) Coast Guard (0.690/0.547/5-6) SUNY New Paltz (0.724/0.530/4-5) Stockton (0.656/0.589/6-5) Stevenson (0.759/0.589/3-5) Virginia Wesleyan (0.813/0.570/3-5) Ohio Wesleyan (0.714/0.562/3-4) Carthage (0.581/0.633/2-7) Saint Benedict (0.630/0.594/3-7) Colorado College (0.621/0.584/2-6)
It really sucks that the these New England regions can just have a region that is their conference. It’s really stupid and is so unfair. When you follow the criteria, this is what happens. I’m not talking about Tufts here because they went out of region but the others should be penalized. Maybe the humans will do that in the committee. They should. I’m at four New England bids and Williams looks good, too.
Williams covers Coast Guard and New Paltz and Stockton. For the record, Williams’ wins are Middlebury (twice), New Paltz, Babson, Colby and Tufts. The committee will probably have Williams over Stevenson. Ohio Wesleyan is interesting. Their wins are Mount Union, Calvin and Otterbein. I like those wins better than Williams and they have record. Plus I’m annoyed. The problem with OWU is that they tie VWU and lose to Stevenson. There are only 3 spots left and I’m going to do something that is allowed but very radical. I’m brining in Mount Union over OWU. They are being blocked and a good RAC Chair will do this and do this earlier than I’m doing it now. As a reminder, their wins are CWRU, Carnegie Mellon, Salisbury and Johns Hopkins. That’s a high ceiling for this team. I have them over Williams, Coast Guard, New Paltz and Stockton. They tie with Stevenson including Ranked Results. Ugh. I do like them over VWU and Carthage. I like them over UWEC, for heck sake. They also cover the other teams considered. So, what do you do when a deserving team can’t be considered? You consider them. My pick (and don’t expect them to be there in real-life) is Mount Union. Staying is Ohio Wesleyan.
(6:10 pm)
Was that just an effort to avoid picking a New England team? Maybe. I still have 2 picks left.
Williams (0.640/0.610/6-8) Coast Guard (0.690/0.547/5-6) SUNY New Paltz (0.724/0.530/4-5) Stockton (0.656/0.589/6-5) Stevenson (0.759/0.589/3-5) Virginia Wesleyan (0.813/0.570/3-5) Ohio Wesleyan (0.714/0.562/3-4) Carthage (0.581/0.633/2-7) Saint Benedict (0.630/0.594/3-7) Colorado College (0.621/0.584/2-6)
Remember that last round I had Williams but they lost out to OWU who lost to Stevenson. I’m not even sure that their RAC will do what I did (moving them into and up their rankings). Stevenson was really close to Williams so I’m going to take them here as they cover Stockton. The problem is Virginia Wesleyan who has Common Opponent over Stevenson. They may tie with Ranked Results but neither is a clear winner here. So, murky!!!!!
I have two picks left. I don’t see Coast Guard or New Paltz getting them. Just didn’t play anyone with a low SOS. I guess I should check Christopher Newport. I moved VWU over them. They have 12 losses but each loss was a ranked loss. Their wins are Carnegie Mellon, Colorado College, Virginia Wesleyan and Swarthmore. Just so hard to judge. There was year that Ithaca had these same statistics and they got in. They played a tough schedule barely won but got credit for it. I went back and looked at that comparison and it could go either way. They have to be given credit for Ranked Results over VWU and then somehow win the tie. I looked down the list with Chris Newport and they get stopped at Ohio Wesleyan. You can also make a case for Williams depending on how you like those New England opponents. I almost just want to take them but I keep getting tripped up (Carthage, for instance).
Alright, time to cheat. I’m not taking a 5th New England team. The criteria favors them and we see it here. I’m sorry, but you need to at least try. The committee may differ but I’ll sleep better. Choices are Stockton, Stevenson, UVW, Christopher Newport, Ohio Wesleyan, Carthage, UW-Eau Claire (sorry IWU) and Saint Benedict. I need two from this list. Oh, I’m also going to look at Franklin & Marshall (who I had Stevenson pass).
Wait! I just saw that Stockton struggled against some New England teams. That makes you a New England team so you are out. Joking, but they won’t get past some teams I’ve already eliminated. I’m also eliminating Carthage. They have two good ranked wins but just so many losses. Sorry. One other problem I have is that Region V has been amazing at this and I’m not giving them anyone outside of Gettysburg. They’ve burned me in past year so one spot is going there. Stevenson or F&M will be in. Heck they are probably both in!
That leaves me UVW, Chris Newport, Ohio Wesleyan, UW-Eau Claire and Saint Benedict.
Hey guys, I need to end this madness. I’m taking Stevenson for my Region V pick. I’m taking Ohio Wesleyan for my last pick. I think CNU might be the pick due to the Ithaca factor from a few years ago but they shouldn’t. Eau Claire may be the pick but it’s hard to choose them without knowing the ranking order. Every time I look at Saint Benedict they get tripped up. Most likely this is Williams but I can’t do it.
This is the absolute worst I’ve felt at the end of one of these ever! I have no confidence in my last three selections. It will be interesting to see what the real choices are and why they did it. I know that Ricky has his selections out. I’ll do another post tonight (after dinner) that summarizes all of this and looks at his choices.
Best of luck to you all!!!!!
Springfield
Babson
Gettysburg
Emory
Mary Washington
Calvin
Carnegie Mellon
UW-Oshkosh
WashU
Mount St Joseph
Case Western Reserve
St Olaf
UW-Stevens Point
La Verne
Millikin
Middlebury
UW-Platteville
Tufts
Mount Union
Stevenson
Ohio Wesleyan
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