Selection Eve (2021)

Although the selections really get decided today (for the most part), to us this is selection eve. I’ll use this post to track the final 9 tournament finals and then add my thoughts as I try to determine the new regional rankings and then the field of 64 for the NCAA Tournament. Check back often.

NESCAC Final11:00 amWesleyan 1 Bowdoin 3

AMCC FinalNoon Penn. St. Behrend 3 Alfred State 0

Centennial Conference FinalNoonJohns Hopkins 3 Haverford 0

NECC FinalNoon New England College 1 Eastern Nazarene 3

NEWMAC FinalNoonSpringfield 0 MIT 3

SAA FinalNoonBerry 3 Birmingham-Southern 0

SCAC Final10:00 amColorado College 3 TLU 0 (3rd Place Match)12:30 pmTrinity 3 Southwestern 1

Heartland Final1:00 pmTransylvania 1 Earlham 3

ODAC Final1:00 pmVirginia Wesleyan 0 Washington & Lee 3

Teams with an AQ (Pool A Bid) are:

I Maine Maritime, JWU (RI), UMass Boston, Bowdoin II Endicott, Framingham St., MIT, Eastern Nazarene III Clarkson, St. John Fisher, Cortland, Merchant Marine IV Brooklyn, Rowan, Stevens, NYU, Gallaudet V Cedar Crest, Eastern, Cabrini, Juniata, Johns Hopkins VI Chris Newport, Southern Va., Berry, Washington & Lee VII Ohio Northern, Westminster (PA), Wittenberg, Calvin, Penn State Behrend VIII IWU, Greenville, Aurora, UW-Eau Claire IX Cornell, Northwestern, Wartburg, Gust. Adolphus X Whitworth, UT-Dallas, CMS, Trinity

I guess I have one more tournament prediction to make. I’m currently 10-2.

Trinity/Southwestern – Aaahhhh. We all know Trinity is going to win this. Playing at home. Undefeated conference season. So much talent. So deep. And then, there is my heart…Pick-> Southwestern.

(8:15 am)

And so it begins. We have 35 Pool A bids accounted for with 9 more to be handed out today. Here’s a little info from “Ned” who just sent an update to his project tool.

“The scenario results sheet has 20 projections I ran. This got me 15 schools picked all 20 times. and 3 schools picked 19 of 20 times. One school was picked 16 of 20; Muskingum. There is then a big gap to the next 2 schools down at 50%, Stevenson and Concordia(WI).”

The 15 schools picked each time in his project tool are: Bowdoin, Chicago, Colorado College, Denison, Emory, Haverford, Hope, Middlebury, Otterbein, RIT, Scranton, Susquehanna, Wesleyan, UW-Stevens Point and UW-Whitewater. The three schools he had 19 times were Bethel, Southwestern and UW-Oshkosh. That leaves 2 spots for a mess of teams.

Here’s the rub. Neither “Ned” or I or even the RACs right now know what the regional rankings will look like. If Middlebury, who lost to Amherst, gets moved behind them in the regional rankings then their chances of selection are greatly hindered. We also don’t know the results of 9 tournaments and some of them have an impact on the at-large bids. Finally, the way the projection tool works doesn’t mimic (all the time) how the art of selection can be applied. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and although the projection tool could be a supermodel when our robot overlords take over, right now it’s just data. (My apologies to my revered robot overlords. I’m here to serve.)

Plans for the day. I need to go through each region and see if the regional rankings will change. This is risky. If I get the regional rankings wrong then I’ll most likely guess the 20 at-large bids wrong. I will follow the 9 tournaments, especially one specific one. Revisit the regional rankings once all of the rankings are done. At that point, I’ll look at the who the 20 at-large teams will be. All of the thinking behind those selections will be captured in this post. It will be an all-day affair. I hope you’ll join me.

(9:50 am)

I forgot about the 3rd place match in the SCAC Tournament (added it above). Not a fan of it as I think it hurts their chances at getting 3 teams into the NCAA Tournament. It only helps if that 4th team has a really good record and the 3rd best team wins. TLU has a good record so as long as CC wins, it won’t be a problem. I woke up thinking there was no way that CC would be regionally ranked behind Southwestern (assuming Trinity wins the title). But, if TLU were to upset CC then I think the criteria would favor Southwestern. It would flip the win/loss record and Southwestern also has SOS and common opponent. Looks like I can start examining Regions 3, 4 and 9. They are done.

(10:15 am)

Let’s look at Region III. Some of this doesn’t matter because we have teams that already have an AQ. I still have RIT over Cortland. This actually comes down to Ranked Results and RIT’s win over Cortland is the best of the lot. Plus Cortland has a spot so move on. I like Cortland over St. John Fisher. Ranked Results wins me over here and both already have spots. I still have St. John Fisher over Ithaca. This one wasn’t that close. Ithaca is still ahead of Brockport, I believe. Ithaca has better wins and no bad losses (Brockport has 3). This could get switched by the RAC but I’m leaving the ordering the same for now. My first switch is moving Clarkson ahead of Brockport and this means I’ll need to do further work after this first pass is done. Clarkson has a bid so this, again, doesn’t matter but I like their Ranked Results better. The SOS is really close here and I don’t know if that will still be the case. So, this could go either way when the official numbers come out but I’m switching it for now. Brockport over Merchant Marines (have a spot) due to Ranked Results and I’m keeping Manhattanville in the last spot. Revisiting Clarkson and I’m going to move them ahead of Ithaca (very close…may not happen) and St. John Fisher (not that close) but they don’t get by Cortland. One problem we have with this region is Geneseo. They beat Brockport in their tournament and have two wins against them for the season. They were dropped for Manhattanville last week and I would probably switch this now. I would even move them ahead of the Merchant Marines which puts them next to Brockport. Despite the two head-to-head wins, I probably keep Brockport ahead because of common opponent and record with SOS being a wash. I like Brockport’s Ranked Results better, too. If I add in Geneseo then the Ranked Results all change. We keep the results against Manhattanville even though they are dropped but now we have to factor in Geneseo, too. I’m not going to worry about how it impacts this region but here are the out-of-region teams that will benefit from this change: Mount Union, Haverford, Scranton, Juniata, Wittenberg, CMU and Mary Washington. Here is my Region III Rankings (for now):

1. RIT

2. Cortland (AQ)

3. Clarkson (AQ)

4. St. John Fisher (AQ)

5. Ithaca

6. Brockport

7. Geneseo

8. Merchant Marine (AQ)

Dropped: Manhattanville

(10:45 am)

Time to look at Region IV and I’m not too worried about this one. The top 3 teams in this region all got AQ. The projection tool didn’t have any of the other teams getting selected in their 20 scenarios. Still, just in case…

I’m leaving the top three as is because I don’t care their order. Montclair has two wins over Stockton and better Ranked Results. Stockton over Kean who has no Ranked wins it appears. Kean holds off King’s and let’s just say their criteria isn’t that grand. Both DeSales and Rutgers-Camden have both been ranked previously in this region but I don’t think it really matters. I’m keeping the order the same and, to me, only Montclair State has an at-large chance and I would guess it’s less than 1%.

1. NYU (AQ)

2. Stevens (AQ)

3. Rowan (AQ)

4. Montclair State

5. Stockton

6. Kean

7. King’s

(11:00 am)

The Wesleyan/Bowdoin match is about to start as I type this. Already on by the time you read this. CC just came back in set two to win that one. They are up 2-0 over TLU.

Let’s look at Region IX and the big question is Bethel and where will St. Olaf land. With automatic bids assigned to the top 3, I’m not looking at them or changing that order and will start with Bethel who sat at 4th. I have Bethel over Cornell and it’s not really that close. Cornell is the 4th school in this region to have an AQ. Cornell and St. Olaf are probably a tie but no reason to switch them at this point. The problem with St. Olaf is that they barely have a record over 0.500 but they have good (not great) SOS. They also have key wins and Hamline is one of those wins. In the end, I give Ranked Results to St. Olaf and that tips the scale. Hamline also holds off Augsburg so for now the order stays the same as what the RAC had last week. Other teams regionally ranked were Coe and Loras so let’s look at them quickly. Coe has head-to-head, common opponent and record over Augsburg so I’ll need to move them in the rankings. Loras doesn’t beat out Augsburg or Coe. Hamline holds off Coe and, like Region III, I’m not too worried what this does the region. I also don’t see an impact in other regions. Here is Region IX for now:

1. Wartburg (AQ)

2. Northwestern (AQ)

3. Gustavus Adolphus (AQ)

4. Bethel

5. Cornell College (AQ)

6. St. Olaf

7. Hamline

8. Coe

Dropped: Augsburg

(11:35 am)

CC with the sweep over TLU. I think that locks up their spot in Region X and I think I’ll look at that next assuming the SCAC title match doesn’t matter. Oh, Bowdoin is dominating Wesleyan right now.

(11:40 am)

I’d like to get through these regionally rankings as soon as I can and I know the most about Region X so let’s see if I can figure this one out. CMS has an AQ and their win over Trinity should keep them in the top spot. Trinity will probably have an AQ but, regardless, will hold the second spot even if they lose. Now we get to Colorado College and Southwestern.

I interrupt this diatribe to mention that Bowdoin is up 2-0 and the two sets have been 13 and 8. Yikes.

I’m only going to assume a Southwestern loss because a win gives them an AQ. That means CC would have record (barely), head-to-head (2-1) and Ranked Results. Southwestern has common opponent (I think) and SOS (I think). The RAC could alter this ordering because things are really close but I see no reason for them to do it and CC has a better chance nationally in my mind so I’m leaving this order the same. Southwestern easily holds off Pomona-Pitzer, Mary Hardin-Baylor and even two teams that could be ranked in Chapman and UT-Dallas. The only team that challenges them is Whitworth but it doesn’t matter because they have an AQ and I still think Southwestern has the edge. The back half of the rankings are going to change but I’m comfortable with the Top 4.

I’ll start in order. Pomona-Pitzer and Mary Hardin-Baylor are close. It comes down to Ranked Results. Do you like 1-0 with a win against a Region VI highly ranked team or a 1-5 team with a win over the last team ranked in their own region? UMHB is the first team in that question and with their two losses to UTD, they now have 2 bad losses. This is a tight comparison but I’m going with UMHB for now as Pomona-Pitzer has 6 bad losses. The Pomona-Pitzer/Whitworth comparison is again close. If we assume SOS is a wash (it might end up favoring Whitworth), then Pomona-Pitzer has head-to-head and Ranked Results. Common opponent and record goes to Whitworth. Basically, Pomona-Pitzer gets their two categories only because they beat Whitworth. Interesting. I do have UMHB over Whitworth. Let’s go UMHB, Whitworth and Pomona-Pitzer for a second and bring in UT-Dallas and Chapman. With UT-Dallas, I have them over Mary Hardin-Baylor, Pomona-Pitzer and Chapman. Whitworth has the edge over UTD due to common opponent and record. I think this means UTD is going to be regionally ranked. Chapman has a case against Mary Hardin-Baylor and Pomona-Pitzer but not Whitworth. So, the last three spots have to go to UTD and Whitworth in my mind and then either UMHB, Chapman or Pomona-Pitzer. Because I’m thinking of adding UTD, UMHB will get additional Ranked Result matches (they went 1-2 against UTD). Oddly, because of this, I like UMHB more than the other two teams. Now to figure out the ordering. UMHB edges Whitworth. UMHB and UTD is close and the result is kind of a catch-22. If I rank UTD higher than I like UMHB’s Ranked Results better. If I rank UMHB higher then I like UTD’s Ranked Results better. Does that make sense? Whitworth edges UTD if their SOS advantage holds. Otherwise, it’s a tie. Here’s what I’m going with:

1. CMS (AQ)

2. Trinity (TBD)

3. Colorado College

4. Southwestern (TBD)

5. Mary Hardin-Baylor

6. Whitworth (AQ)

7. UT-Dallas (AQ)

Dropped: Pomona-Pitzer

To be clear, I could go in any order but UTD and Whitworth do not need a bid. So, I’ll put UMHB 5th so they look better in the national selection. I don’t think it will help but why not? Adding UTD actually helps Southwestern as they have a win over them. It also helps Carnegie Mellon who also beat UTD early in the season.

I’ll come back to this after the Southwestern/Trinity match, which starts shortly. Noon matches are going on now. Wesleyan took set 3 and are leading in set 4. Bowdoin needs to regroup.

(1:00 pm)

Bowdoin Beats Wesleyan in 4-sets. Nice environment at Bowdoin. Trinity destroyed Southwestern in the first set.

Johns Hopkins with an easy sweep over Haverford. Southwestern still struggling.

Berry sweeps BSC.

A lot of wipe outs in the tournaments today. Weird.

(1:40 pm)

Transylvania looks like they are going to beat Earlham. That’s a problem for those that need an at-large. Transy wasn’t getting one. Earlham has a shot for one.

Southwestern win the third set win. Trinity leads 2-1. Two best words in volleyball for Southwestern? “Reverse Sweep”

Transy gets the win. I’ll take a look at the tournaments that hurt the at-large bids when we get to the end.

(2:20 pm)

Ugh. Better effort by my Pirates in sets 3 and 4 but Trinity wins in 3-1. Congratulations to them! Hope you get to host a regional.

All of the matches today are done with W&L winning in 3-sets. 5 of the 9 finals were sweeps and some sets not very close. A little break and then I’ll start going through the regional rankings again in preparation for my at-large bid guesses.

(3:00 pm)

Let’s take a look at Region I. This is going to be a polarizing region come selection day, I fear. Will get some at-large bids from here but the question is how many. The only regionally ranked team with an AQ is Bowdoin. Starting off we have Wesleyan and Tufts. They just played and Wesleyan won for the second time. With that said, I would probably take Tufts on the criteria. Common opponent, record and Ranked Results, but I don’t see the RAC agreeing so I’ll keep the order the way it is. Bowdoin is up next and they don’t really matter since they have a bit. I have them slightly ahead of Tufts but also ahead of Wesleyan who they beat twice. I’ll change this (not that it matters) to Bowdoin, Wesleyan and Tufts to start off. Tufts does hold off Middlebury due to Ranked Results. Despite Amherst beating Middlebury, I think Middlebury holds them off. Record, SOS and common opponent with head-to-head tied. Amherst and Williams is close. Amherst has a head-to-head and a better record. SOS right now is for Williams. Common opponent is close and Ranked Results could go either way. Williams only has 2 wins but they are Tufts and MIT. I’ll keep Amherst in their spot. Williams and Plymouth State comes down to Ranked Results. Williams is 2-7 but two nice wins. Plymouth is 3-2 with a bad loss and the wins are all lower ranked teams. Easy decision for me…not sure about the RAC. Williams stays. Plymouth State easily beats Rivier. I have Rivier and Keene St. tied and I would lean towards Keene St. (SOS and Ranked Results). Other teams to look at are UMass Boston and W. Conn. State. UMass Boston comes out ahead of Rivier so they will drop from the rankings. Western Conn. State is not working in the project tool but some old time analysis shows I probably don’t take them over UMass Boston. I’m actually taking UMass Boston ahead of Keene St, as well. Two head-to-head wins help. Here is Region I:

1. Bowdoin (AQ)

2. Wesleyan

3. Tufts

4. Middlebury

5. Amherst

6. Williams

7. Plymouth State

8. UMass Boston

9. Keene State

Dropped: Rivier

UMass Boston has a number of losses but here are two out-of-region; Emerson and Springfield.

I just saw an email where Ricky has posted his 20 at-large selections. Go to his site, here. I will attempt to hold off until I’m done with my process.

(3:35 pm)

Region II is up next. I’m hoping these start going faster. Another polarizing region with respect to at-large bids, I fear. MIT was ranked first and now has an AQ. I will leave them alone. Endicott is the other regionally ranked AQ team. Give me Babson to hold off Springfield despite losing twice to them. Common opponent, SOS and Ranked Results give them the edge. It will be very interesting to see what the RAC does here. I’ll keep Springfield over Coast Guard. I’m moving Endicott ahead of Coast Guard but not Springfield but they have a bid so no worries there. They do hold off Emerson and I don’t think the last team matters that much. Currently it’s Smith. Region II rankings:

1. MIT (AQ)

2. Babson

3. Springfield

4. Endicott (AQ)

5. Coast Guard

6. Emerson

7. Smith

(3:45 pm)

Region V and we should get a few at-large bids out of here. Ordering will be important, too. First two teams are a class above and already have the AQ. Susquehanna and Haverford are up first and I give the edge to Susquehanna due to Ranked Results. Not a fan of Haverford’s but I think the RAC will disagree with me. Haverford over Scranton easily. Ranked Results don’t come into the equation. I could have Stevenson over Scranton but they also beat Haverford. Basically, these three are a problem because two are probably getting in but will all three? Ordering is everything by their RAC and we won’t know until after selection. I’m going to keep the three in order because I just don’t know. If I was the RAC, I may do Haverford, Stevenson and then Scranton. I will come back to this during selection if only two go. Messiah could be in that mix, too, but they stay in their spot. Eastern just beat Messiah to even that series and I think that will push them ahead in the rankings. I’m also going to move them ahead of Stevenson and Stevens. It doesn’t matter if I’m right because they have the AQ but I think that’s where they belong. I could move Elizabethtown ahead of Messiah, but I won’t. I don’t think it will matter but I’m sticking with the higher SOS. Region V rankings:

1. Johns Hopkins (AQ)

2. Juniata (AQ)

3. Susquehanna

4. Haverford

5. Eastern (AQ)

6. Scranton*

7. Stevenson*

8. Messiah

9. Elizabethtown

* Don’t know about these two.

(4:00 pm)

Region VI with 10 teams ranked but 4 have bids. Not going to worry about Berry at number 1 or Emory at 2 even though they don’t have a bid. In fact, CNU has a bid at three so leave them there, too. BSC still has an advantage over Randolph-Macon who has the advantage over Mary Washington who has the advantage over UCSC. I think Virginia Wesleyan may get ranked ahead of UCSC based on Ranked Results. Washington & Lee have an AQ so I don’t care about them right now as does Southern Virginia. Ranking is:

1. Berry (AQ)

2. Emory

3. Christopher Newport (AQ)

4. Birmingham-Southern

5. Randolph-Macon

6. Mary Washington

7. Washington & Lee (AQ)

8. Virginia Wesleyan

9. UC Santa Cruz

10. Southern Virginia (AQ)

The lesson here for UCSC is you’ll have to play matches in Region VI next season. You’ll also need a higher SOS, which means more travel. It’s not a good conference for you at all. Give a call down to the SCIAC and make that happen. I’m worried I got a little sloppy in this region but my wife just called up and asked how much longer I had. Uh oh.

(4:10 pm)

Another big region in Region VII but another one that will have a few at-large bids. Four teams have an AQ and normally I wouldn’t care about Calvin and Hope but who gets to host the regional? It should come down to Ranked Results and both are impressive. I’m leaning towards Calvin because of the CMS win. Calvin, Hope and then ONU who also has a bid. I’m moving Wittenberg ahead of Denison as I like their Otterbein/Hope wins better than Denison’s ONU and Wittenberg wins. Plus they have 2 bad losses. I do like Denison’s Ranked Results better than Otterbein so they don’t slip any further. I actually like Muskingum more than Otterbein but I’m not switching them. It’s close and I think Otterbein gets nationally selected easier. I also want more of a sure feeling before I go against a RAC. Getting sloppy again. Things are really close so I’m going to just leave the back end order the same. Rankings:

1. Calvin (AQ)

2. Hope

3. Ohio Northern (AQ)

4. Wittenberg (AQ)

5. Denison

6. Otterbein

7. Muskingum

8. Carnegie Mellon

9. Mount Union

10. Westminster PA (AQ)

(4:20)

Last region, I think. I hope. Region VIII will be interesting because of Earlham. They were never in a mock selection because I always had them winning their conference. UWEC has a bid and is a lock at one. I also believe UWW is a lock at two. I’ll start with Stevens Point and they hold off Chicago who easily hold off Aurora. I have UW-Oshkosh ahead of Aurora and it’s not that hard to see that. Worried about this RAC. I think Chicago holds off UWO but Oshkosh has a win against them. I’m taking Aurora over Earlham who has 4 bad losses. Earlham still comes out ahead of IWU who has an AQ. For that matter, Aurora has one, too. IWU and Concordia could go either way. IWU has a bid so leave it as is. I’m also leaving Mount St. Joseph in the last spot. There are a number of teams that could jump into the rankings in this region but at this point I don’t think it matters. Rankings:

1. UW-Eau Claire (AQ)

2. UW-Whitewater

3. UW-Stevens Point

4. Chicago

5. UW-Oshkosh

6. Aurora (AQ)

7. Earlham

8. IWU (AQ)

9. Concordia (WI)

10. Mount St. Joseph

I think that’s 10 regions and no clue if any of them will be right. Time to move on to selection.

(4:45 pm)

And so it begins. Here are the 10 teams up for nomination for the first at-large bid:

That’s a good list of teams, unfortunately, things will only get tougher. I’m not going to dwell too much on some of these first teams.

Coming off the board is Hope, UW-Whitewater, Emory and Colorado College. I think these are an easy four regardless of the order. Coming in to replace them from each region are Denison, UW-Stevens Point, BSC and Southwestern.

Looking at the teams, I have some issues. Babson really only has one quality win and that’s MIT. Everyone else is a lower ranked team so how will the RAC deal with that? Springfield is behind them in my rankings but I’m now switching them. Springfield has two head-to-head wins and I like their Ranked Results slightly better. They may have a better chance of getting in, too. I am not a fan of Montclair State and I think they will stay on the board for the full 20 rounds. After making the Springfield change, here is the list:

For pick 5, Susquehanna is doing really well against everyone. I’m just going to put them in now because they would be going in soon anyway. In comes Haverford. They really don’t have a really good win so they could be tough for me. Other criteria is good, however.

For pick 6, there were a couple of options and I thought about bringing them all in at once but will honor the process. I’m taking UW-Stevens Point here. Good record and SOS with a win over Bethel and Chicago go into it. Chicago replaces them from the region.

For pick 7, Wesleyan was a contender last time and they breeze through it until they get to newcomer Chicago. Common opponent and Ranked Results does them in. Bethel is close to them as is Southwestern but that Hope win is hard to match. Taking Chicago and have UW-Oshkosh replacing them.

For pick 8, I know Wesleyan already comes down the list a ways so we try them against Oshkosh. Wesleyan has better record and SOS so it’s a non-starter for Oshkosh right now. Versus Bethel, I actually like Wesleyan’s two Tufts wins over UW-Stevens Point. Against Southwestern, they have a Colorado College win but I think 2 Tufts trumps that. Wesleyan is the pick with Tufts coming in.

Starting over for pick 9 and I think Tufts will be hard to beat out. Sure enough, no one can stop the Jumbos! They are my pick. In comes Middlebury.

Have to start over for pick 10 again. Has to happen whenever Region I wins because I don’t have any history of other comparisons with the way I do it. Middlebury and RIT are a close match. Ugh. Lot of close battles, actually. Southwestern sort of sets themselves apart so looking at if from their angle. I’m not sure I like my Pirates more than Denison, but they definitely win a number of comparisons. Having to start over. Ugh. Alright, I do like Denison more than Southwestern but I like Middlebury more than Denison and I like Southwestern more than Middlebury. Taking all three here. My (hot) wife is going to get mad if this takes all night. Picks -> Denison, Southwestern and Middlebury. In comes Otterbein, Mary Hardin-Baylor and Amherst. Here are the teams under consideration.

Regions I and VIII are doing very well in this so far. I expected more from V.

Pick 13 and we are getting to the beginning of the end as they say. Actually, it’s what I just said to my (hot) wife when she asked “how long”. I mean, it makes no sense, right? But, she seems happy with it.

I kind of like Amherst more than Springfield. I’m starting to think with 3 New England teams selected that Region II could be shutout. I didn’t see that happening and if I was a betting man, I would bet that the RACs don’t let that happen. Amherst and RIT tie in my mind. Montclair State is still a non-starter in so many ways. Haverford’s best win is what? Eastern? Scranton? BSC has so many bad losses but it does have a Berry win. There are a couple of teams that compare well, but I think I like Otterbein here and they are my pick. In comes Muskingum.

For pick 14, I’m focusing on Bethel. They’ve been really close so let’s see if they can run the table. Ugh, I like the Muskingum wins. I also think Muskingum blocks BSC with their head-to-head win (and other stuff). Haverford trumps Bethel with record and SOS advantages (hard to beat that). Muskingum beats out Haverford. I’ve got to take Muskingum here. Feels like it’s too early or that the committee won’t select them but they are the pick. In comes Carnegie Mellon. That’s four picks from Region VII.

Pick 15 and the players are Amherst, RIT, Haverford, BSC and Bethel but each team that leaves and arrives changes the dynamic. Starting with Haverford this time as their record and SOS trump a few teams. Haverford clears the New England teams but may lose the RIT battle. RIT and the New England schools are all about the same to me. I think BSC is in trouble because UMHB has a head-to-head against them and UMHB doesn’t beat out a lot of teams. Oshkosh also covers the New England schools and RIT. Ugh. Lots of back and forth here. I’m taking Haverford. I don’t think they really deserve it but I can’t fight the criteria and they block some better teams. In comes Scranton but this could also be Stevenson.

5 picks left. Things are getting serious. Let me try Scranton first. They clear the NE teams but hiccup on RIT. Tough call. Lots of comparisons here. I’m struggling with the NE, RIT and Scranton teams. Oshkosh is in the mix but I’m going Bethel here. In comes St. Olaf. My problem with Bethel is that they really only have that UW-Stevens Point win. Still record and SOS are solid.

Four picks left. I have an issue with Montclair St., Carnegie Mellon, St. Olaf and UMHB. These four teams will be tough to get in. That leaves 6 teams plus whomever is behind them for 4 spots. This is going to take a bit…

Okay, I lied. My (hot) wife had dinner ready. I have been a horrible husband today.

Let’s look at this a different way and put my NCAA Selection Committee hat on for a second. Amherst and Springfield are very close. I originally though Amherst had an edge but it’s basically a tie. Does the committee give 4 bids to Region I all out of the same conference when the region didn’t travel? I like to think no. Does the committee give out 5 NE bids? Again, I think no. Is Springfield still in play? Maybe. Remember I moved them ahead of Babson but did the committee? I could pick them and they may never get nominated in real-life. I have no teams from the New York Regions. That’s happened in the past but RIT isn’t a bad selection. Scranton (or Stevenson) have possibilities. BSC also has a chance but UMHB hurts them and they have 4 bad losses. They have a nice win against Berry but then lost to them twice. Carnegie Mellon can’t get in I think. The UAA wasn’t as strong this year in my opinion and they are a 0.500 team. Oshkosh has some of the best wins on the board right now but they also have 4 bad losses. St. Olaf is like Carnegie Mellon. UMHB has a horrible SOS and I just don’t think they get through. If the RAC ranks UTD then their Ranked Results go from 1-0 to 2-2 so maybe that looks better (oddly)?

So, Springfield, RIT, Scranton (Stevenson) and Oshkosh for the last 4 spots? Maybe. Of those teams, I like Scranton. Let me take them here and that will get Stevenson on the board.

Pick 18. Stevenson has possibilities, too. Best win is Haverford? That’s the holdup. I really think the committee will take RIT but I just can’t do it. I don’t think they are one of the 20 best and I just think there are teams better regardless of what the criteria says. I think Springfield is better than RIT and I’m not a fan of Springfield. I think Stevenson is better than Springfield. I think Oshkosh is better than Springfield, too. I think Oshkosh is a better team than Stevenson but the criteria tells me different (although a late bump in SOS for Oshkosh changes this). BSC hinders Oshkosh’s chances but Mary Hardin-Baylor hinders BSC. I really want Oshkosh to go for Ricky is another problem I’m having here. I’m a reading too much into them? 5 bad losses! They had problems at times in their season but they are really strong right now.

I’m going to take Stevenson here. Messiah comes in.

Pick 19 is going to UW-Oshkosh. They have beaten the best teams in my opinion of the group left. In comes Earlham.

My last pick. I’m going Springfield. This is more of a what will the committee do pick but I see the logic, too. The problem is that this could be Babson instead depending on how the RAC ranks them.

Teams on the bubble that could be selected; Amherst, RIT, Babson and BSC.

1. Hope (VII)

2. UW-Whitewater (VIII)

3. Emory (VI)

4. Colorado College (X)

5. Susquehanna (V)

6. UW-Stevens Point (VIII)

7. Chicago (VIII)

8. Wesleyan (I)

9. Tufts (I)

10. Denison (VII)

11. Southwestern (X)

12. Middlebury (I)

13. Otterbein (VII)

14. Muskingum (VII)

15. Haverford (V)

16. Bethel (IX)

17. Scranton (V)

18. Stevenson (V)

19. UW-Oshkosh (VIII)

20. Springfield (II)

Let me look at Ricky’s list and compare. I’m always nervous about this.

He has Amherst. And RIT. That’s it. I have Stevenson and Springfield. I think we are close. I bet my teams were on his bubble and, like I wrote, his two teams were on my bubble. Let me get my official post up.