Selection Day Musings

I’m going to leave this post here for a bit and add to it today. It’s just after 11 AM Central so less than an hour until the selection show.

First off, we learned that Salisbury is not going to host so that really messes up Ricky’s projections. Changing just one host site impacts a ton. Not like an NPI ripple that bounces Babson (too soon?) but still impactful.

Our current belief is that the 8th site will be Christopher Newport. Looking at Ricky’s projections, the first problem is that Ithaca is just outside the 500 mile limit for driving. My guess is Ithaca goes to Johns Hopkins and is replaced by Christopher Newport. It’s always a good idea to have the team hosting in their regional. The next problem is that there were a number of New England schools driving down and that can’t happen. That means those schools will be driving to MIT, Johns Hopkins and Juniata. That effectively means that I doubt any other school will fly into those three regionals.

500 miles reminds me that I added the NCAA mileage calculator to the left side menu. This tool allows you to enter two schools and see what the distance is between them.

Another issue with Christopher Newport is the lack of a true 2-seed. It should be a pretty full regional but would they fly either ETBU or Trinity there? The problem with that is you have CNU and Salisbury as 3-seeds with Virginia Wesleyan as a 4-seed. I don’t see all three of those teams there with an ETBU or Trinity. I basically count five 3-seeds that can drive to 4 regionals. That will be an interesting subplot.

Of course, the 8th regional could be someone else and that creates different problems.

I was looking at the Emory Regional and I really don’t see any other choice but to send three Region X teams there. Our only 4-seed is CMS so that does seem like a lock.

I’ll publish this and then add when I have a crazy thought.

Years from now, players and fans that had to live through a selection show where they didn’t know if they made the tournament or not will not be able to explain to the newer generation the range of emotions they went through.

Ten minutes out. We are now at the point where you try to figure out why there is nothing on the ncaa.com site where you are 100% sure the video will play.

Why wouldn’t the Live Video page list the selection show? Why do they make this so hard!

Dune Prophecy is coming soon.

It’s noon, and I have no idea where the show is.

Found it. Now another Dune Prophecy ad.

Browser didn’t work with it. Another Dune Prophecy ad.

Alright, show is over. Once again, for the 12th year in a row, I struggled to figure out where the NCAA was streaming the show. Please just have the video ready to go on page you advertise. Let us be able to see it. Let us be able to sit through the ads early.

Some first thoughts:

• Wow! They didn’t want two WIAC schools hosting. I thought NPI removed the public school bias from the process. Whoops. They gave the hosting job to the 9 seed over the 8 seed thereby giving the lower seed a huge advantage. They can point to travel but we know two WIAC regionals would have worked. Unless someone tells me Oshkosh didn’t put a bid in, this really stinks.

• Oshkosh has to fly to Marietta. That’s at least 6 flights total.

• Are you really protecting the Top 8 when you screw the 8th team? I mean you protected the Top 9 with the exception of Oshkosh, to be frank about it.

• I was trying to figure out if it was Marietta or CNU hosting that 8th regional. Both hosting was definitely a curveball that messed me up.

• All 2-seeds came from 9 through 16 so that’s good.

• All 3-seeds came from 17 through 24.

• All 4-seeds came from 25 through 32.

• Things broke down at the 5-seed but nicely done with that aspect of the bracket.

• Thought the MIT was pretty tough.

• Region of Death? Whitewater for now, but I need to look more.

I thought the Region X teams were treated well. La Verne going to the MIT shocked me. MIT, Colby and La Verne is rough. Still, until the New England teams travel more, I like them sending in a tough team to make them earn it.

Emory did get three Region X teams. Trinity, Whitworth and CMS is a fun mix. Transy and Berry are going to be really tough outs for CMS and Whitworth. This is where I’ll be going if things work out (flights and medical stuff).

I love ETBU going to the Chris Newport Regional. They have a good chance of coming out here but a tough road. A possible second round against the host and then a final against Washington & Lee. Yikes.

Alright, some other business to take care of but I’ll be back later.

Virginia Wesleyan travels 341 miles to Juniata instead of 27 miles to Christopher Newport.

Stevens travels 398 miles to Christopher Newport instead of 191 miles to Johns Hopkins.

Messiah travels 395 miles to MIT instead of 95 miles to Juniata.

477 miles from Middlebury to Juniata.

You can see that distance and proximity to a regional were not overriding factors for the committee. I think that is a good thing. I prefer regionals that are fair.

Juniata – Six strong teams. None can challenge the champs.

MIT – Six strong teams. I like NYU and La Verne playing here. I don’t like free passes. I think MIT is still the class here and if they make the Elite 8 there will be no doubt.

Emory- Another six strong teams. Watch out for Berry and Transy. Can’t sleep on them. CMS/Emory and Whitworth/Trinity would be fun second round matches. I know meals and drinks won’t be coming to me from Trinity, so Whitworth and CMS parents better step up if you see me there. 😉

Hope – Five strong teams. Millikin being here makes this tough for Hope.

Whitewater – Heck, I like all of these teams. Northwestern being on the UWW and UWEC side is crazy tough.

CNU – Four teams here I like. I think it goes to either W&L or ETBU but CNU is hosting. I really hate missing ETBU in person.

Johns Hopkins – I like six teams here. Alright Smith, send me my shirt if you don’t make the Elite 8! I won’t be coming to this regional. I really wanted to learn all of the cheers.

Marietta – Six good teams here. Whatever anyone does here, don’t piss off Oshkosh. Wait. Too late. I think the Titans will be on a mission after the snub. Some great first round matches in this one.