SCIAC Statistics Loss

Articles have been a little slower to come out this year and I’ll explain this to you as I do to my wife when she wants me to clean the cat’s litter box, “I have cancer.” Yeah, that has nothing to do with anything but it’s such a wonderful built-in excuse. Six months in remission by the way! The real reason for the delay is because I’m a nerd. I’ve been playing a lot of “MLB The Show” and then I had to prepare for my Fantasy Baseball Draft (3-time defending champion, thank you very much). You can scoff at my nerdium (that should be a word) but I’m also your nerd. I mean who else is going to give you statistics loss due to senior graduation. No one is the answer except for your nerd.

“Son, we live in a world that has statistics, and those statistics have to be analyzed by nerds. Who’s gonna do it? You? You, Scott Ellis? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for the athletes, and you curse the coaches. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know – that athletes graduate, while tragic , probably give others opportunities; and my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, explain those ramifications. You don’t want the truth because deep down in places you don’t talk about at parties, you want me on that wall – you need me on that wall. We use words like “formula”, “macros”, “function”. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent manipulating columns and numbers. You use them as a punch line. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to someone who rises and sleeps thinking about the statistics that I provide and then questions the timeline in which I provide it. I would rather that you just said “thank you” and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you figure out the meaning of CountIf() and get to work. Either way, I don’t give a darn what you think you’re entitled to!”

That was fun. Remember, a lot of the time I write for my own enjoyment.

Alright, back to the real world. I’ve completed the SCAC statistics loss article and now it’s time for the next conference, which happens to be the SCIAC. I have no clue why the conferences are listed in my spreadsheet the way they are. It’s almost reverse alphabetical so maybe I was feeling my oats nearly a decade ago.  Once again, let’s go over some background on what I’m about to go over:

Remember that statistics loss are the statistics lost by the graduating seniors to a program. These are the statistics that need to be replaced just to get back to where you were in the previous year. I’m mainly interested in the percentage of Points lost because history shows us that anything over 45% typically means a worse year to the program. There are always exceptions so save the hate comments if you find your team on the wrong side of this mark. Losses to assists, aces and digs are also tracked but history tells us that finding setters and liberos is easier than hitters.

I guess I should also mention that this exercise is made tougher by the existence of “Super Seniors”. I always liked “Covid Seniors” but I can see how this really isn’t appropriate. Maybe we should just rename them “Trinity Seniors” since they seem to be the best at getting their players to return? I haven’t heard of an “Super Seniors” in the SCIAC, yet. They tend to be expensive schools (for the most part) and I’m not sure how many have master programs. All things I could look up or, better yet, anyone that knows of a SCIAC “Super Senior” can just let me know.

When we think of the SCIAC historically, it’s all about CMS and Cal Lutheran. We certainly have seen other schools step up in the past (heck, La Verne has a national championship in their history) but these two teams have the last two national championships from the West. With CMS, they made the Elite 8 last season going 31-2 so let’s take a look at their losses first:

• Kills 19.1%

• Assists 2.0%

• Aces 6.8%

• Digs 12.6%

• Blocks (S/A) 12.9% / 17.4%

• Points 17.5%

I guess the first interesting thing to note about CMS is that outside Jackie Jones is listed as a senior but I believe she took a semester off and will graduate this December. I removed her from their graduation loss. As you can see, CMS should be making another run at a national championship (not to mention the SCIAC crown). They lose their right side and some defense but losing a right side at CMS is like clipping your nails; they always grow another one there.

It’s a different story for Cal Lutheran. They are coming off an 11-17 season that saw them make the SCIAC Tournament but lose to CMS in the SCIAC semi-final. Here are their anticipated losses:

• Kills 46.3%

• Assists 3.6%

• Aces 25.2%

• Digs 27.9%

• Blocks (S/A) 57.5% / 45.6%

• Points 44.4%

I guess you can’t get closer to that 45% threshold in points than Cal Lu will this year. The big loss is middle Maci Haddad but there are 5 seniors in total that will come off the board. These losses indicate a tough season for Cal Lu in 2022 unless players step up or recruiting hits a homerun or two (mixing my metaphors, I fear).

Chapman was actually the second-best team in conference last season although Pomona-Pitzer also has a claim. The Panthers lost in 5-sets to CMS in the conference final and went 13-13 on the year after battling the C-word earlier in the year. Two of my favorite players will be leaving the program so this is not going to be pretty:

• Kills 56.5%

• Assists 48.4%

• Aces 40.5%

• Digs 44.6%

• Blocks (S/A) 38.9% / 39.2%

• Points 53.4%

Chapman is one of two programs in the SCIAC that will lose more than 45% of their points in 2022 and the only over 50%. They also have to replace nearly 50%  of their assists and digs. Expect a down season for the Panthers as the door seems open for at least two of the SCIAC Tournament spots this year.

Pomona-Pitzer put together a 17-10 season, which was second best in the conference in 2021. They will also be the second best as far as retaining statistics for the fall. Here is what they will lose:

• Kills 9.7%

• Assists 45.4%

• Aces 33.1%

• Digs 17.5%

• Blocks (S/A) 2.9% / 5.6%

• Points 11.3%

The concern is going to be at the setter position but, as I’ve mentioned, that position seems to be easier to find than hitters. Of the top 4 teams in the SCIAC from 2021, Pomona-Pitzer is in the best shape to improve on paper and look to have an early lock on, at least, second place.

Let’s tackle the rest of the teams in order of pain. The other program with points loss over 45% is going to be Whittier. Here are their numbers:

• Kills 48.9%

• Assists 10.9%

• Aces 55.4%

• Digs 63.4%

• Blocks (S/A) 15.2% / 30.8%

• Points 46.7%

The Poets finished 2021 with a 10-16 record and it looks like they will be hard pressed to match that this fall. They will need to replace two of their better hitters and their libero. The middles are staying and should improve but finding those outsides is always difficult.

Next up is Redlands. The Bulldogs only secured 2 wins last season and they will face an uphill climb to improve. Here are their numbers:

• Kills 44.3%

• Assists 4.8%

• Aces 54.1%

• Digs 37.1%

• Blocks (S/A) 6.7% / 20.3%

• Points 42.4%

Two of their better hitters (and all-around players) have graduated. It will be interesting to see how they replace them as I think I only see one outside on their roster. They do have three opposites so maybe someone moves over.

Caltech has been on quite a run of late setting team best records and finishes. They ended last year at 11-13 and won 6 conference matches. Their 6^th place finish was their best ever in conference. The problem with Caltech, as you can imagine, are their entrance requirements. It’s tough to replace their players so although their statistics loss might be manageable by another program, they will be very difficult for Caltech to overcome. Here are their numbers:

• Kills 34.5%

• Assists 12.4%

• Aces 29.7%

• Digs 42.5%

• Blocks (S/A) 53.7% / 36%

• Points 34.7%

Occidental had a nice bounce back season in 2021 although they still finished 8-15. They will have to overcome these numbers to improve:

• Kills 18.6%

• Assists 10.4%

• Aces 39.2%

• Digs 50.4%

• Blocks (S/A) 11.1% / 30.4%

• Points 21.9%

Those loses boil down to their 4^th best hitter statistically and their libero. It should mean Oxy improves again this season and it should help to have a rather large 2021 roster consisting of a number of first-year player. I have them with just one senior this year so this is going to be a team that should grow the more they play together.

La Verne had no seniors in 2021 so no need to boil down their numbers as they all start and end with a zero. They finished 10-13 and had 10 juniors on their squad last year so you would have to think this is a SCIAC Tournament team in 2022.

Looking at the conference as a whole and you have to think CMS is the very heavy favorite this fall. Pomona-Pitzer is going to be the best bet to topple the Athenas unless another program can really recruit well. La Verne looks like they have a great chance at a successful season but that fourth team is really up for grabs. I’ve done this long enough to not bet against historically good teams so give me Cal Lutheran but it will be interesting to see if Chapman can continue to build on what they’ve built these last four years. Oxy is probably my dark horse at this point and a team that shouldn’t be overlooked. In the end, it’s still April and everything is just paper at this point.

Up next on the wall is the NWC. Oh, and you’re welcome.