SCIAC 2024 Statistics Loss

Time for our second article in the senior statistics loss series as we turn our attention to the SCIAC. We covered the SCAC in our first series. As a reminder of why I do this:

Through the years, I’ve noticed that when it comes to DIII, it’s the Points that matter and really nothing else translates into wins and losses. Programs seem to more easily replace setters and liberos than hitters so when we see a Points loss of around 45%, we get concerned. (Points are kills + aces + blocks.) We’ve also seen that the bigger programs are more easily able to replace those losses because of their ability to recruit and because of the talent on their bench. Still, even the biggest programs will struggle with Points losses start to exceed that 45% mark.

Here are the statistics lost to senior graduation in the SCIAC sorted by Points lost:

It’s the have and the have-nots in the SCIAC at first blush. If your school starts with a ‘C’ then expect trouble, otherwise you are good to go. As I mentioned in my first article, with the Super Seniors we really don’t know who is sticking around for another year but the SCIAC does seem to have fewer instances of this than other conferences. With that said, we know that Georgia McGovern (CMS) will be returning so her 225.5 Points will stay (along with nearly 1200 assists). My efforts to recruit Jenna Holmes (476 Points) to Southwestern have failed, but I don’t expect her to return to CMS so the Athenas will suffer some pain.

Looking at Cal Lutheran and they are “losing” 7 seniors with one already removed from their 2023 roster. They get the triple whammy as they take significant losses in assists, digs and Points. For a team coming off a 14.66 Points/Set season, this is going to be a problem. We will have to see if any of them come back for another year and how they recruit but it appears a 0.500 season would be a surprisingly good result in 2024. (It won’t help the Regals that they always play one of the toughest schedules in the West.)

Chapman doesn’t get the triple whammy but they take a big hit on the Points. The big losses are Marly Johnson and Julin Kenison who were both transfers. I’m pretty sure Kenison is done as she played in 2019 but no idea if Johnson will return. It definitely hurts to lose your two best hitters (by Points) and this is another team that I don’t see getting to 0.500 next season.

CMS had a great run to the Final 4 but it looks like the bill may come due in 2024. Even with McGovern returning, they could lose 4 seniors highlighted by Jenna Holmes but also take a hit at middle with Dani Beder and at outside with the potential loss of Izzy Sakoda. (I’ll note that Beder is listed as a junior on the CMS roster but a senior in the NCAA database.) If we add back in McGovern, CMS will lose “only” 39.3% of their Points. Normally, I wouldn’t be too concerned over that number because the Athenas have depth, but I am worried about their outside hitters. Brooke McKee should return and she has the ability to make up some of the loss but finding a 400 Point second outside is a tall task even for a powerhouse program.

Caltech didn’t quite reach the 45% mark but that’s a lot of Points for a program that has such a difficult time recruiting due to their academic requirements. The real issue is that they only have 6 returners and four were first-years in 2023. The Beavers will most likely really struggle next season.

As for the other 5 schools, we should see each improve. The fun one will be La Verne as they are coming off a regional final appearance and should be even better in 2024. Both Whittier and Pomona-Pitzer made the SCIAC Tournament so I think it’s going to be hard to breach the top 4 as, lets face it, CMS will be there, too.

Just to touch on Redlands and Oxy, they don’t lose much but still have a large gap to go. Oxy had less than 1000 Points (in 76 sets) in 2023 while Redlands had less than 1100 (in 82 sets). So, I like them to improve on their 2023 records but I don’t see them contending in the SCIAC next year.

Looking at the Points/Set and comparing them to the records, we see that everything sort of jives. The goal for Whittier and Pomona-Pitzer will be to get to that 17 Points/Set number and see if the SCIAC can get three teams into the NCAA Tournament. (Heck, let’s go for four!) With Whittier, they probably need to find 500 Points but I think they have some room to grow with their existing players (especially Riley “I am” DeGroot). With Pomona-Pitzer they have to replace outside Paige Wilson who played 6-rotations and was a huge factor in their service receive. They are also looking for those 500 Points but also have room to grow (a more efficient Chloe Gill could really factor large for them). I believe I mentioned that the SCAC will probably be our toughest conference top to bottom in 2024 but the SCIAC looks to have the best competition between their top 4.

Still to go with this series is the ASC, the NWC and then a look at a bunch of national teams.