Schedules in March?

Much to my surprise there are actually three schools that either have their schedules published or where my Latvian hackers have found them. I don’t recall any schedules becoming available this early. Of course, the coaches know their schedules and should obviously share them with me but this learning process has been slow. In fairness, schedules can still be a little fluid at this point but for the most part the heavy lifting was done in December/January, if not before.

In the past I’ve done individual schedule analysis for each school and then last year I switched to grouping of schedules because a lot of the content can be redundant. I’m not sure what form my analysis will take this year but I will say the changing of my presentation is partly due to understanding how schedules are created and the road blocks coaches face putting them together. I was definitely too hard on a number of schools in years past and I think my “ideal” schedule was unrealistic for a number of programs. With that said, I will still call it like I see it, but it is important for everyone to remember that I am a bit of an idiot on these things. (Wife just said all things, but I’m unsure what she meant.)

I think because it’s still March and I don’t expect more schedules for a few more months, we should dive into what we have. I mean what else are you going to do today? Hit the bars? (Is it too early for Coronavirus humor? I feel it is so I’ll stop at one.)

The three schools that have schedules out are Linfield (first to release officially as far as I can tell), Whitworth and Chapman. All three of these schools are intriguing to me for different reasons and, frankly, Chapman’s was the one schedule that was the most interesting to me in 2020.

Starting with Linfield and the Wildcats are interesting to me because it’s so tough to create a schedule coming off a 5-win season. They have also had a coaching change and my guess is that this schedule is primarily the creation of the outgoing coach (Josh Davis). This can be important because there is a philosophy behind scheduling and I was especially happy about the direction Coach Davis was taking the Linfield schedule in 2019. For 2020, the first thing we can see is that the NWC will be back to their two week out-of-conference scheduling. I’ve been particularly critical of this conference in the past because of this because I don’t feel it puts their conference or the region in the best position to get more NCAA Tournament at-large teams. Over the years, I’ve come to understand the unique issues the conference faces but I still encourage them to find that third weekend where they can go dominate out-of-region. With that said, I like what Linfield is doing this year. Remembering that they are a team that will need to build their reputation, they have pulled off a nice schedule in 2020. First off, they’ve managed to put together their own tournament during the first weekend. Usually, we see the Oregon Trail this first week but, as I’ve reported in the past, there were issues this upcoming year with that tournament. Last I heard it will go off the second weekend but I can already tell you, if it does, it will not include Linfield and Whitworth. Two of the schools coming in for the Linfield Wildcat Classic are JWU (Denver) and Mills College. Coupled with Linfield, these were three schools that really struggled in 2019. There is nothing wrong with these types of matches as one of these three schools is most likely going to come away with two DIII wins, which helps Strength of Schedule (SOS) for their future opponents. They also bring in Minnesota-Morris who made the NCAA Tournament in 2018. That’s a great measuring stick for Linfield and I hope their student body will come out for that one. The other team in the tournament is NWC opponent, Whitman. I typically don’t like conference opponents playing prior to conference but it is very difficult to schedule in the North West and they do need to get their work in. Whitman with their 3 wins in 2019 is in the same boat as Linfield, JWU and Mills College. One of these schools is going to have a great start to the season. The second weekend sees Linfield heading to Colorado College where they will play the host as well as Nebraska Wesleyan, Howard Payne and a non-DIII school. Howard Payne is another program that struggled in 2019 so you can see that this schedule mixes some quality teams with teams that Linfield can compete with in order to improve their reputation. Pretty darn perfect in my mind. The rest of the season is simply NWC play.

Whitworth is up next and starting backwards with them, we can also see their schedule, except for the first two weeks, is dedicated to NWC play. I think for a team like Whitworth this is a mistake. There needs to be a way for the top teams in the NWC to play out-of-region one weekend during conference and make it up later. This is my never-ending soap box speech so I’ll climb off now. What Whitworth does well is travel their first two weekends. They will head to Trinity during week 1 and Whittier week 2 for a rare Whittier tournament. At Trinity they will play the host, UW-Stout, Berry and Hendrix. That’s two outstanding NCAA teams from 2019 in Trinity and Berry plus a team in Hendrix that just missed out. UW-Stout is maybe a step below but they are on the rise and can’t be overlooked. At Whittier they will play the host school in addition to Pomona-Pitzer, La Verne and Santa Cruz. La Verne was a SCIAC Tournament team last season and Pomona-Pitzer and Whittier are always in the mix. Santa Cruz is going to make a play for the independent bid this year so not a bad grouping. What this schedule means for Whitworth in terms of a possible NCAA Tournament bid is that they really can’t slip up other than maybe to Berry. A Trinity win coupled with the SCIAC schools probably ensures they are regionally ranked pretty high assuming they don’t trip up in conference play. Add in a Berry win and they probably get nationally ranked (20 to 25). Losing to Trinity means, at best, a bottom half regionally ranking but beating Berry gets them some national recognition that could help at selection time. This schedule is really a classic NWC top team schedule. They have an opportunity with Trinity to lock down a high regionally ranking while only playing one top team in the region. It could allow them to sneak into an at-large bid if they falter in conference. Of course, they have to beat Trinity at Trinity, which is never easy.

I am honestly really giddy to see Chapman’s schedule. No team has probably felt my scheduling wrath more than them (McMurry may disagree) as I feel they have NCAA Tournament talent but haven’t scheduled in a way for the nation to see it. This year there are improvements although their out-of-region exposure is minimal. For week 1 they travel up to La Verne where they may draw one of their most important matches right off the bat getting Babson. Babson always seems to be highly ranked in the New England Region and therefore becomes a must win when thinking about an at-large bid. The rest of the schedule that week isn’t that great with Simmons, Sul Ross State and Augustana. The Panthers really need to go 4-0 week one, which will give them some immediate national exposure. Week two finds them, like Whitworth, at the Whittier tournament. They draw Santa Cruz, Puget Sound and Concordia (Texas). At first blush I’m a little disappointed they didn’t get to play Whitworth but it’s possible that Whitworth could falter this season due to graduation loss. Puget Sound is probably the team to watch out for this weekend as it could determine regional rankings and therefore at-large selection chances come November. Concordia is a good enough team to surprise but typically don’t find themselves regionally ranked. What sets Chapman’s schedule apart from previous years is week three. They will travel (!) to Trinity to take on the host school plus Southwestern and Dallas. Trinity gives Chapman a great chance to lock in a high regional ranking and both Southwestern and Dallas should be good enough to help their SOS. Southwestern is a young team that will be looking to get back into the NCAA Tournament picture so this will be a really interesting match. (Don’t be surprised Panthers to hear an obnoxious Southwestern fan in a yellow hat leading cheers for the Pirates in this one.) Dallas also can’t be overlooked but is a team that Chapman must beat to have NCAA Tournament hopes. The rest of the season will be dedicated to SCIAC play and early indications are that Chapman will be one of the favorites to be in that SCIAC final. Overall, this is a really solid schedule for Chapman. I would have liked one or two more quality out-of-region teams but with budgets like they are it’s hard to have it all.

As a side note, it sure likes Trinity will have an outstanding schedule again in 2020. We have insight into two of their weeks and they always play in the East/West Challenge that includes some of the best teams in the nation. I believe this year they play that tournament at Cal Lutheran. Bottom line, Trinity will be the linchpin in the West Region. Playing some of the contenders in the West (remember they will also get Colorado College and Southwestern multiple times) while also playing a tough out-of-region schedule.

Overall, that’s probably way too many words to spend on three schedules but I’m starved for 2020 content right now. Actually, with my lack of cooking skills and this stupid virus going around, I’m pretty much starved all of the time. (Okay, that’s two Coronavirus jokes. Sorry.) Anyway, I do like these three schedules. Maybe most disappointed in Whitworth but I’m getting use to the constraints that conference and their location has on them. Kudos to Chapman for playing a schedule that gives them an opportunity for an at-large bid if they falter in the SCIAC. One issue they may have are the matches against Simmons, Sul Ross State and Augustana. These could all be under 0.500 teams, which will hurt their SOS. They really need these three teams to be at 0.500 or higher at the end of the season and obviously come away with at least three quality wins against Babson, Puget Sound, Southwestern and Trinity. Getting second in the SCIAC may also be required.