Schedule Analysis – Johns Hopkins

This article shows that whining works with me. Maybe I’m getting ready for the new granddaughter? This time, my whining baby is fredjadam and, per his request, we’ll take a quick look at the Johns Hopkins schedule.

Here is a reminder on what I’m doing with this series.

This series attempts to look at schedules through an NCAA Power Index (NPI) viewfinder and evaluate them on an NPI basis. Ned has gifted me an Excel sheet that allows me to plug in the 2025 schedule of a team and see how it would do if they were playing the 2024 versions of their opponent. From this, I can see what their max NPI would theoretically be (with an undefeated season) and how their spread of opponents look when examining their NPIs. I can even play some what-if games with wins and losses. Remember, when looking at 2024 NPIs, that a win gives you a match NPI that is about 10 points higher while a loss will give you 80% less. If we assume the at-large bid cut-line will be around 59.5 NPI then this means any team above 50 NPI will be beneficial with a win. The Quality Win Bonus (QWB) is set to 55.5 in women’s volleyball so most of the opponents between 55 and 60 will also give you a QWB. In doing these simulations, just know that I do not feed in the results and alter team’s NPIs. Most importantly, 2024 NPIs will not equal that team’s NPI in 2025. If you want that information, someone will have to learn to look into the future.

Here is our table of the schedules analyzed so far in this series.

(Loss n = Simulated losses against NCAA Tournament teams above the at-large cut-line.) (Max L = Maximum number of losses to their best opponents and stay above the at-large cut-line.) (oNPI = Theoretical opponent NPI in 2025.)

The JHU schedule is probably closest to Juniata’s schedule so it’s a good (tough) one. As a reminder, JHU went 29-2 in the regular season and finished with the second best NPI at 72.01. They won their conference’s Automatic Qualifier (AQ) and made the Final 4 where they took a tough loss to UW-Whitewater. That was a really weird match as it went 5-sets but none of the sets ended particularly close (8 points was the closest margin in sets 3 and 5). For their 2025 schedule, they are using the maximum allowed 22 play dates and will squeeze 27 matches out of that.  

Here is the JHU 2025 schedule with their opponent’s 2024 NPI:

Here is their spread of opponents across the NPI range:

• 60+…6 opponents

• 55-60…7 opponents

• 50-55…9 opponents

• Less than 50…5 opponents

JHU has six matches against the elite, which is tied for 6^th most compared to the teams we’ve looked at so far. It’s a pretty even spread although they do bump up to nine matches against the 50 to 55 range. Two of their five matches against the low-NPI teams are conference matches. Two of the others were invited by JHU into their tournament and the fifth is York who will play an open date at JHU in early October. It’s always best to upgrade these types of matches but it should be noted that all three of these teams finished above 48 NPI so they are really close to that cutoff point at 50 NPI. On the one hand with JHU, you almost want to give them an automatic pass to their AQ having last lost in 2015 but the Centennial had two teams earn at-large bids with Swarthmore just missing out. So, there are no guarantees for JHU winning another title especially considering that they are losing over 57% of their offense. This schedule, assuming JHU goes undefeated during the regular season, will result in a maximum NPI of 75.77. That’s good for 5^th from the teams we’ve looked at, just behind Juniata.

Looking at “Loss n” and it comes in at 60.63. This is the NPI if JHU loses to only teams that were above the cut-line last year. This is certainly a fair number and it would result in a 20-7 record. If we give JHU another loss, it would drop them below the anticipated cut-line so their maximum number of losses is seven. Things are a tad dicey for JHU around that “Loss n” number because it assumes they beat two teams that finished above 59 NPI from last year (Babson and Endicott) not to mention a team just under 59 in Swarthmore. What I guess I’m saying is that if JHU makes the tournament, it will have certainly earned the bid.

Here is the table from above, with Johns Hopkins added:

I did reach out to new Johns Hopkins Head Volleyball Coach Bayleigh Braswell but it looks like former coach Matt Troy left her a note not to talk to me. (I mean that didn’t happen but I could see Matt doing this as a joke.) That means you’re left with just me as I finish this analysis.

It’s good to see JHU staying with their typical tough schedule. There certainly seems to be a consistent approach with most of these top teams to stay status quo and not bend to the NPI gods. I don’t think I would do this unless I felt comfortable that a tough schedule wouldn’t hurt me with an at-large bid. On the flip side, if your goal is a national championship then losing out on an at-large bid by a few decimal points is probably a clear sign that the title wasn’t within your grasp. I do think these tough schedules pay huge dividends come NCAA Tournament time and securing that Top 8 protected status can only come from a tough schedule that you perform well against. So, no complaints from me on this schedule but after doing my previous article that highlighted how a bad schedule can sneak into an at-large bid, I’ll always be a bit wary.

Alright, fredjadam, I hope you approve of this analysis. Best of luck this season and enjoy that senior year. Remember, senior night is right around the corner and that is an approved night to shed a tear or two.

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