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Schedule Analysis – IWU, CNU & St Olaf
We’ve had 7 schedule analysis articles and I thought it might be time to group new schedules that are being dropped with what we’ve seen before. If someone comes out with something new then we can spend more time on it. So, today we have multiple schools to discuss but we won’t go into much depth or do in-depth coach interviews. I reserve the right to change this approach, but I have a number of schools that are similar to what we’ve seen. The schools for this article are Illinois Wesleyan (IWU), Christopher Newport (CNU) and St Olaf. IWU was a team that fell just outside of the cut-line last season while CNU was comfortable in. St Olaf is a team that was around the 100th place for NPI so I thought it would be interesting to see what a team in that position did with their schedule. (Side note – I really wanted to get a New England team into this article and will in the future but I’m noticing that the schedules that have dropped still have some uncertainty. There are a few tournaments that haven’t been finalized. I find that interesting and maybe a sign of scheduling issues with NPI in play?)
Here is a reminder on what I’m doing with this series.
This series attempts to look at schedules through an NCAA Power Index (NPI) viewfinder and evaluate them on an NPI basis. Ned has gifted me an Excel sheet that allows me to plug in the 2025 schedule of a team and see how it would do if they were playing the 2024 versions of their opponent. From this, I can see what their max NPI would theoretically be (with an undefeated season) and how their spread of opponents look when examining their NPIs. I can even play some what-if games with wins and losses. Remember, when looking at 2024 NPIs, that a win gives you a match NPI that is about 10 points higher while a loss will give you 80% less. If we assume the at-large bid cut-line will be around 59.5 NPI then this means any team above 50 NPI will be beneficial with a win. The Quality Win Bonus (QWB) is set to 55.5 in women’s volleyball so most of the opponents between 55 and 60 will also give you a QWB. In doing these simulations, just know that I do not feed in the results and alter team’s NPIs. Most importantly, 2024 NPIs will not equal that team’s NPI in 2025. If you want that information, someone will have to learn to look into the future.
Here is our table of the schedules analyzed so far in this series with the new schools listed at the bottom.
(Loss n = Simulated losses against NCAA Tournament teams above the at-large cut-line.) (Max L = Maximum number of losses to their best opponents and stay above the at-large cut-line.) (oNPI = Theoretical opponent NPI in 2025.)
IWU
IWU is playing the maximum 22 dates resulting in 26 matches. In 2024, they were able to win their conference’s Automatic Qualifier (AQ) but a loss in that final match would have eliminated them from an at-large bid. As it turns out, they finished with a 59.49 NPI which placed them 42nd but below the cut-line.
Here is their spread of opponents across the NPI range:
60+…8 opponents
55-60…8 opponents
50-55…8 opponents
Less than 50…2 opponents
The elite teams (60+ NPI or higher) on the schedule are Chicago, Hope, Marietta, UW-Eau Claire, WashU, Millikin, UW-Oshkosh and Juniata. Only Millikin is a conference opponent so it’s obvious that IWU is looking to improve their position from last season. Their theoretical maximum NPI is 77.55, which is the second highest we’ve seen (so far). If we give IWU losses to every team that was above the cut-line last season, their NPI drops to 59.88. This puts them just above the 2024 cut-line so it means their maximum losses are those 8 teams and it means their “Loss n” number is also 59.88. The IWU schedule resembles Juniata’s schedule although it’s slightly more difficult. One column that I’ve added to the table above is Opponent NPI. This is the theoretical Opponent NPI in 2025 using 2024 data. You can see that IWU plays a much tougher schedule than Juniata but this is really the result of Juniata playing more teams under 50 NPI. They are virtually identical when just looking at the teams above 50 NPI.
CNU
Christopher Newport is playing the maximum 22 dates resulting in 30 matches. One of those matches is against a reclassifying Regent squad so that match will not count towards NPI. To get that many matches over 22 play dates means they are doubling up on a lot of days. Oh, I should point out that the reason I wanted to include CNU was that we had a comment awhile back that said they were playing maybe the toughest schedule in the nation. In 2024, CNU won their conference’s AQ and finished with a 62.33 NPI that was good for 19th overall.
Here is their spread of opponents across the NPI range:
60+…10 opponents
55-60…7 opponents
50-55…11 opponents
Less than 50…1 opponents
The elite teams (60+ NPI or higher) on the schedule are UW-Whitewater, Trinity, NYU, Juniata, Johns Hopkins, Virginia Wesleyan, Washington & Lee twice and Salisbury twice). The CNU theoretical maximum NPI is 79.68, which places them slightly above Oshkosh for the toughest schedule (so far) per NPI. Giving CNU a loss against every opponent above the 2024 cut-line drops their NPI down to 59.40. That would then put them under the cut-line. If we reverse the Centre loss to a win (that’s their worst-best loss in our simulation), the NPI goes up to 60.24 and above the cut-line. That means CNU’s maximum losses are 10. The CNU schedule resembles the Oshkosh schedule although having just one opponent under 50 NPI makes this schedule sort of unique. When looking at just the above 50 NPI teams, Oshkosh’s schedule is more difficult and we can see that Oshkosh still has the riskiest schedule we’ve looked at so far when you consider the number of elite teams played and the maximum losses they can suffer and still make the anticipated cut-line. Still, you can make a case this is the toughest schedule overall because of the Opponent NPI. (I’ll go on record that I’d still rather play CNU’s schedule than Oshkosh’s.)
St Olaf
St Olaf is also playing the maximum 22 dates but they told CNU to hold their Saint Christopher Medal and scheduled 32 matches over those dates! That seems like gluttony so let’s not get into Proverbs 23:2 right now. Back in 2024, St Olaf finished 101st in NPI at 54.67. They had a 19-10 record. I really wanted to look at a team like this to see how they handled their schedule in 2025.
Here is their spread of opponents across the NPI range:
60+…6 opponents
55-60…11 opponents
50-55…8 opponents
Less than 50…7 opponents
The elite teams (60+ NPI or higher) on the schedule are La Verne, CMS, Millikin, Chicago, UW-Whitewater and UW-Eau Claire. Their maximum NPI is 72.24, which puts them around CMS and Whittier on our list of teams. Giving St Olaf a loss against the teams above the cut-line leaves them at 60.38, which is pretty good. The only other teams above 60 for “Loss n” were Calvin, ETBU and CMS. I really see this number as a landing zone if your team is a true 59 NPI team. The higher the NPI for “Loss n”, the softer your landing zone is. In other words, if St Olaf was a true 59 NPI team, this schedule would turn them into a 60.38 NPI team. That’s the difference between not making the tournament and making it. (It really makes you think about that Calvin schedule. They have the largest “Loss n” number so far but it comes at the cost of wiggle room. One unexpected loss to sub 55 NPI team and Calvin could be hurting.) Back to St Olaf and if I give them a loss to their next highest opponent (Northwestern), they drop to 59.49 and below the anticipated cut-line. That means their maximum loss is 7. Their Opponent NPI is a respectable 0.547. In a previous article, I mentioned that the best NPI schedule might be one that doubles the previous category in the spread. So, if you had 4 matches against the elite, then you’ll want 8 against the next level and 16 against the 50 to 55 NPI range. St Olaf sort of does this with the first two spreads but they just have too many low NPI matches to help me with my thesis. (Five of their seven low NPI matches are against conference opponents so no option to change this.) When looking to compare this schedule against the teams we’ve already done, I’m not sure I see a perfect pairing. Their numbers are closest to CMS but they have a better “Loss n” number and can afford one additional loss that’s not against an elite team. Their Opponent NPI number is virtually the same but the St Olaf schedule is safer.
To summarize this all up, I wanted to get a cross-section of schedules from a team above the 2024 cut-line, one just below and one further down the table. In the process, we also got to see what a team like CNU could do when they play in a conference that really doesn’t play a conference schedule. They can pick and choose more freely than a team like St Olaf who has to play low NPI teams because they play a conference schedule. I don’t think any of these three teams backed down from the NPI fight. St Olaf’s 6 elite opponents were the least from this group but it’s pretty normal when looking at the other teams analyzed so far. All three play a good number of teams in the 55-60 range as well as the 50 to 55 range. These teams do highlight how the low NPI teams will bring down the Opponent NPI (St Olaf) but that really doesn’t seem to matter too much when you don’t count those wins in NPI. There are still only three teams analyzed (Calvin , ETBU and St Norbert) who can lose to multiple opponents in the 55 to 60 range and still make the anticipated cut-line. They are the only three teams, so far, that have a maximum NPI that doesn’t reach 70. So, they sacrifice a high NPI and possible Top 8 protection for more of a sure-thing at-large bid. I’m still finding all of this interesting and I think I’m still learning from these articles so it probably means I’ll bore you some more in the future.
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