Schedule Analysis in an NPI World

Loyal readers know that June brings schedule discussion articles. This is where I grab a bunch of schedules and give them grades as to how they fit the level of the program and whether they give the program a legitimate shot at receiving an at-large bid (if needed). This year we have a bit of a problem in that I really don’t know what a good schedule is any longer. With the NCAA implementing their NCAA Power Index (NPI) to replace the selection criteria, I don’t believe anyone really knows what schedule will help them get that at-large bid. This is further hampered because we still don’t know the parameters (or dials) the program will use.

One coach who just loves my scheduling articles is Chapman’s Head Coach Mary Cahill. I got to meet Mary in person at the 2023 championships and she jokingly (?) told me that I was the one that always criticized her schedules. Ah, good times! In truth, I have been critical of Chapman’s schedules a few times over the last number of years. I really liked their program and thought that they were a legitimate at-large team when they had two outstanding players in Jessi Lumsden and Sophie Srivastava. Unfortunately, a number of factors prevented them from ever making an NCAA appearance while they played there. The main factors were the loss of the 2020-21 season and then having Jessi actually get COVID at the start of the 2021 season. 2019 was a different story and is an example how scheduling can hamper at-large selection.  Of course, that was before NPI. What we have now is a coach that knows how to schedule to the old system but, like everyone else, has no real feel for what NPI will do this fall. Since Chapman has their 2024 schedule published and Mary loves it when I comment on her schedule, I thought this was a natural test case for a scheduling article while I factor in NPI.

Chapman doesn’t travel much but they are greatly benefited from playing in Southern California where the schools there can attract quality opponents to their tournaments. Chapman will be playing in the Pacific Coast Classic followed by the Whittier Invitational and then followed by the Cal Lu Fornia Invitational. All three tournaments will be within 100 miles of their campus (or within 10 hours of driving in SoCal). (Note to my readers – Yeah, I’ve used this joke before, but it holds up.) Chapman will then play in the very tough SCIAC (home and away) with a match with DePauw thrown into the mix come October. Eyeballing this schedule using the old selection criteria and I’d be okay with it but not in love and yes, I do fall in love with schedules. Because of their tough conference (two matches with CMS, La Verne and Pomona-Pitzer among other quality teams) they would be in the mix for an at-large, if needed, if we were still using the selection criteria. Their 2024 schedule also includes two matches against Puget Sound and UC Santa Cruz. These are teams that are typically in the mix for a regional ranking in Region X. Throw in Muhlenberg, Whitworth and Edgewood and it’s alright. Let’s just say Mary wouldn’t send me anymore angry emails about my grade. (This is not to say that Mary has ever sent me an annoying email but we all know she has thought about it.)

Now with NPI in the mix, the question becomes can this schedule get Chapman an at-large bid? In short, and this is why my scheduling articles may be a thing of the past, the answer is yes. That’s not a reflection of Mary’s hard work but the fact that virtually any schedule could get a team into the tournament. The trick will be to beat a team or two that will bring your NPI number up to the 0.600 range (I understand that you probably have no concept of what that means just yet) while not losing to very many teams. Because Chapman plays in the SCIAC and that gives them access to quality teams, it’s quite possible that Mary has scheduled an out-of-conference schedule that is too tough! It’s that statement that makes me worried about NPI and how it will impact scheduling in the future. The team to schedule are the teams with good to great records but really poor Strength of Schedules (SOS). In 2023 that would be Ramapo, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Eastern Nazarene, Gallaudet, Plymouth State among others. Keep in mind that an at-large bid using NPI will go to the teams that have a number around 0.600 (I understand that you probably have no concept of what that means just yet), but a win at home against Plymouth State would have given you a match NPI number of around 0.667 in 2023. No one knows who the 2024 Plymouth State teams will be (although I’ll bet you one is Plymouth State) but these teams are gold when it comes to NPI. Unfortunately for Chapman, they have a number of schools on their schedule that are good but may not come away with great records because they play tough schedules. It will be fine if they beat these teams but it’s quite possible that to NPI the outcome will be the same as if they played winless Principia 12 times in their out-of-conference schedule. In 2023, this gets you an ‘F’ from me and eliminates you from an at-large bid because of SOS but in 2024, it gets you an ‘A’! Heck, the fact that Chapman is playing UCSC and Puget Sound twice each would have driven me up the wall last year but to NPI teams are just a number. Playing teams multiple times may be really smart and, in fact, playing poor teams from your own conference isn’t a bad way to fill out your out-of-conference schedule as long as you win.

Don’t get me wrong, winning your conference is the way to go. Winning lots of matches against quality teams will still get you an at-large bid if you don’t win your conference. The problem is that NPI opens up other pathways to an at-large that will make long-time fans and coaches physically ill. You want a gold-plated at-large bid schedule? First, get out of your conference and become an independent. Yes, with the elimination of a Pool B bid (for independent teams), you remove one option to the tournament but you gain full control of your schedule. Next, identify which teams will finish first or second in poor conferences and go play them. Sure, your travel budget will be a problem but you only need to do two or three of these matches. Then fill out the rest of your schedule with the absolute worst teams you can find. Play them any number of times you want. You’re thinking 2 or 3 times, right? Heck, play them 20 or 30 times! They are just a number to NPI. Win against those easy teams and take 2 of 3 against those other teams and you’ll most likely be in. Win all three and you’d be (around) the 12^th best team in the nation according to NPI. Now, you will be in no way prepared for the NCAA Tournament but we can cross that bridge when we get there.

The big unknown with scheduling is the mix between what I just outlined and what teams with at-large aspirations normally did. You can definitely schedule too tough now and it’s very hard to schedule too easy. This next season is going to be fascinating to see what NPI number each team gets because, quite simply, no one has a concept of what that means just yet.

Normally, I would have ended my article there. I made a cute joke a couple of times in my article and then looped back and reused the joke but in a more meaningful way. Everyone is impressed (maybe even Mary) and I’m imagining your slow clap is starting to pick up momentum. Hopefully, the article made you laugh while also scaring some coaches along the way. All in all, a very successful 5 minutes of my time. But I thought I would show you the 2023 NPI numbers (from my Latvian Hackers) for the Chapman non-conference schedule (using 75/25):

Union College 0.500 MCLA 0.526 Muhlenberg 0.553 Puget Sound 0.532 Edgewood 0.584 UC Santa Cruz 0.540 Austin College 0.503 Whitworth 0.541 UC Santa Cruz 0.540 Puget Sound 0.532 DePauw 0.538

Every one of these matches will be on a neutral court. A good rule-of-thumb is that beating a team will give you a little more than 0.100 points of that team’s NPI and if you lose, you’ll lose over 0.100 points. If you are shooting for around 0.600 then every one of these teams has the potential to help Chapman as long as they win. Teams around 0.550 or higher will even give you bonus points if you win so there are a couple of opportunities there for Chapman, too. Throw in a conference that gives you 5 teams that would have helped you in 2023 and the foundation is in place as long as the wins come. The problem with the schedule is that there are too many teams that will challenge Chapman. On their 27-match schedule, they only have 6 matches where they should win easily if they end up being an at-large quality team. In the past I would have complained about those 6 matches. Now, I guess I have to complain that there are only 6.