SCAC Statistics Loss

After completing my Trinity Statistics Loss article, I finished up the SCAC teams and thought maybe a general once-over would be in order. This sort of takes the place of a SCAC preview done in August but I’ll probably forget I wrote this in 6 months so here goes.

Remember that statistics loss are the statistics lost by the graduating seniors to a program. These are the statistics that need to be replaced just to get back to where you were in the previous year. I’m mainly interested in the percentage of Points lost because history shows us that anything over 45% typically means a worse year to the program. There are always exceptions so save the hate comments if you find your team on the wrong side of this mark. Losses to assists, aces and digs are also tracked but history tells us that finding setters and liberos is easier than hitters.

I thought the SCAC would be interesting to dive into a bit because it’s so top heavy with the big three (Colorado College, Southwestern and Trinity) and two of those schools have a lot of statistics loss. How top heavy is the SCAC? Since its existence in 1991, only Rhodes (in the first year) has won their volleyball championship as opposed to one of the big three. The only year since 2011 where the big three haven’t finished the regular season conference schedule in the top 3 was 2015 after Trinity lost a lot of graduating seniors (and they still made it to the conference tournament final). So, yeah, top heavy.

If you read the Trinity article then it’s no surprise that even with their returning “Super Seniors” they are going to experience a 50% Points statistic loss. They also lose one of their setters and a large amount of digs because both of their outsides were 6-rotation players. That is a lot to replace through underclassmen and new recruits but we all know that Trinity is capable of doing just that.

Colorado College continued their NCAA Tournament streak last season. They last missed out on the NCAA Tournament in 1997. That’s simply incredible. This year they lose two huge players in Mullins and Vasquez. Interestingly, both will be playing a 5^th “Super Senior” year but not with Colorado College. Rumor has it that they will be going to DI schools in 2022. With “only” two players leaving, that shouldn’t be too hard to replace, but when one is maybe the best middle in the region and the other is one of the best outsides in region that can be a problem. Here are the statistics loss percentages:

• Kills 50.2%

• Assists 2.8%

• Aces 28.2%

• Digs 26.4%

• Blocks (S/A) 50% / 45.2%

• Points 47.3%

Yes, Colorado College is the second of the big three to lose more than 45% of their 2021 Points and therefore get the dreaded red flag. On one hand, you can see how just one player stepping up or one really good recruit can put this program back on firm footing but those are two really important players to replace.

Side note before I get to Southwestern and the other SCAC schools. You can see how both Trinity (losses are 51.2% Kills, 40.7% Assists, 62% Aces, 58.8% Digs and 50% Points) and Colorado College have troubling statistics but each is uniquely different. Trinity has to replace more players that contributed to the statistics but have three “Super Seniors” coming back that will help not only with the stats but also with their leadership. Colorado College is “only” losing two players but they were so significant offensively. Seems easier for Colorado College to replace but also harder when you think about it.

Southwestern, on paper, are sitting better then the other big three. Here are their losses:

• Kills 19.8%

• Assists 8.4%

• Aces 17.9%

• Digs 33.2%

• Blocks (S/A) 13.3% / 20.5%

• Points 19.6%

I typically don’t even think twice about losses at or under 10% and really don’t give much thought to a 20% loss. Digs are the only troubling area for the Pirates (they did lose their libero) but as I’ve mentioned in the past, liberos are probably the easiest position to replace. (Until you can’t, of course, and then it’s a real problem.) For the record, the Pirates are losing three defensive players (granddaughter Taylor, granddaughter Ali and granddaughter Wren), two middles (granddaughter Ashely and granddaughter Darby) and a right side (granddaughter Lauren). All of them hurt but here we see another interesting tidbit when it comes to statistics. That’s 6-players gone (more than the other two schools) but less statistics than Trinity and Colorado College so, to me, the concern here is senior leadership. How many teams are negatively impacted when so many senior leaders graduate? I think it will really help Southwestern that they made the NCAA Tournament (first time since 2017) because it drives home to every team member the sacrifice and work required and maybe will compensate for those senior losses.

This reminds me of a story that I don’t think I’ve shared before. Back in 2013, I had cultivated enough of a relationship with then Southwestern coach Hannah Long that she would talk to me about the upcoming match and strategies. Our team had made the NCAA Tournament but our Pirates were probably the last at-large team to make it. (It helped to beat Colorado College in the SCAC Tournament semi-final, which also proved to be incredibly helpful this past year.) Anyway, we drew Mary Hardin-Baylor who had beaten us twice that season with the previous match being at home two weeks earlier that ended 1-3 and wasn’t close at the end. I mentioned to Coach Long that I didn’t like the matchup and thought we were in trouble. She just looked at me and said we’ve got this. The pressure will get to them as this was the team’s first NCAA appearance ever. We had to bounce back from being down 1-2 in sets and in the end, they scored 80 Points to our 67 but the Pirates pulled it out 15-13 in the fifth set. Mary Hardin-Baylor was the better team but having NCAA Tournament experience is really important.

Another story (one I’ve told before). After the Mary-Hardin Baylor win, we drew Trinity at their place in the second round (we would lose in 5-sets with the 5^th going 21-19). Prior to the match, my daughter (who didn’t play much her first-year but always did against Trinity) is talking to a group of players while walking down a Trinity hallway. She turns her head in conversation as she turns a corner and runs directly into a trophy cabinet. Long story short, she suffers a concussion that she didn’t recover from for another 6-months but didn’t know it at that time. Played 5-sets with a headache and even had a chance for the 5-set win before the Trinity middle had a different plan.

Enough of the stories. I guess I’m feeling nostalgic. Maybe the reason is that I can see a path forward for Southwestern to win the 2022 SCAC Championship (last done in 2015). On paper there is certainly a good chance but I’ve seen how both Trinity and Colorado College recruit and it’s never wise to bet against the Tigers. Either of them.

That’s the big three but what about the “little six”. (“Little six” is a joke. Don’t get upset over it. It’s math humor and nothing is funnier than math humor! After all 7 eight 9!) Austin College and Texas Lutheran are always strong and they did finish 4^th and 3^rd last season. Austin College is actually in the best position when looking at the entire conference. They are losing a setter and a libero with a Points loss of only 5.5% (the smallest amount in the SCAC). It’s not going to be hard to mimic last season’s results and you have to expect that they will improve on their 20-11 record. I guess the question becomes what number, when it comes to Points, do you need to achieve to have an expectation at a conference title and/or an NCAA Tournament bid? I have lots of articles on Points/Set and the magic number is 17 Points/Set, but let’s look at Total Points. Each of the big three were right at 2000 points on the season or more.  (Trinity had over 2300 Points.) Of course, they were helped because of extra matches in the NCAA Tournament but 2000 is a nice number to shoot for if you have NCAA Tournament aspirations. Austin College is returning right around 1550 Points and finished just over 1600 Points last season. The other factor that goes into Total Points is the competition. You need 2000 against quality teams. Can Austin College find 500 Points against better competition? That’s basically one outstanding hitter but you also have to replace the statistics that this player would replace (assume 200 Points). So, Austin College is basically two really good to great players (hitters) away from making a SCAC title run and NCAA Tournament run. That, of course, assumes the schedule is slightly improved, too. Remember, these players can be on the roster right now and it’s certainly not unheard of a 200 Point/Season player becoming a 500 Point/Season player. (Got that granddaughter Oliva? That’s your goal.) TLU finished 19-14 and had some names on their schedule outside of the SCAC (Chapman, Cal Lutheran and Whitworth). They finished with 1858 Points so they really weren’t far away when you look at it that way but they did play more matches than most. With that said you can see how just one additional great hitter last season might have reversed some results and put them in contention for an at-large bid. The bad news is that they are losing three starters that accounted for 41.7% of their points (including over half of their blocks). On the plus side they should have back their two best hitters and their setters and libero. On paper, history says that TLU is going to drop back slightly next year but if they manage to get three players that can outperform the graduating seniors then they are immediately in the mix in an always difficult SCAC and could be better off than in 2021. That’s a difficult ask but I’m trying to highlight the fine margins that exist in our sport. I believe when people think of TLU, they don’t think of an NCAA Tournament team and the fine margin is find three players that can improve statistically from what your graduating seniors did and you are there.

A slight spoiler is that you’re going to read that there are 5 teams in the SCAC (out of 9 total) that will be at 40% Points loss or worse. We know that Southwestern and Austin College are two of the four in good shape going into 2022 and another is St. Thomas (11-18 in 2021). As long as Paige Havel returns, the Celts are a difficult team to play. Before I get into that, I should probably remind people that St. Thomas is a provisional DIII program that just finished their 3^rd year. They are eligible for the SCAC Tournament (and they qualified in 2021) but not the NCAA Tournament. I believe there were rule changes that allow provisional DIII programs to complete their purgatory after year 3 (it was year 4) so it will be interesting to see what news St. Thomas and the NCAA have to share with us in the summer. If all goes right (and I’m not dreaming up the rule change), St. Thomas will be eligible for the NCAA Tournament in 2022. (Update – The SCAC messaged me that I didn’t dream the rule change.) Right now, I have St. Thomas losing 4 seniors that accounted for 24.6% of their Points last season. They also accounted for over half of their assists, aces and nearly half of their digs. When writing about statistic loss, I will gloss over the assists and digs and the 24.6% Points loss isn’t crippling. That’s basically a good hitter that needs to be replaced. The problem for the Celts is that they only had 1388 Points on the season (and lose 341 to graduation) so they basically have to double their production in Points team wide in 2022 to get to that NCAA Tournament level. That’s a tough ask and we’re probably looking at a team that will improve but not break into that top 3 or even top 5 in conference.

The other three teams in the SCAC are Dallas, Schreiner and Centenary. Centenary finished with the best record of the three (15-22) but was the only team not to make the SCAC Tournament. Dallas and Centenary face a really tough challenge in 2022 as they both lose over 40% of their Points. Dallas also loses their libero while Centenary loses a setter. Dallas is going to return around 700 Points while Centenary is going to return around 800 Points so both are in a more difficult position than St. Thomas. Briefly touching on fine margins again, Centenary didn’t make the SCAC Tournament because Alyssa Davis went down to injury in her 22^nd match of the season. She was one of the better outsides in the conference and mattered that much to the team. Schreiner is a wild card in all of this as they (along with Austin College) lose less than 10% of their Points. They do lose a libero but they have a number of candidates to step into that role. Schreiner is going to return right around 1100 Points and will hopefully have their two best hitters back, as well. One thing that worries me is that they lost their coach and you never know what that will mean to player retention. On paper, Schreiner is probably right with TLU as far as being in position for the 2022 season (behind the big three and Austin College). The biggest job for the new coach will be to retain players and then make the team believe that they can make some noise this year in conference.

Stepping back and looking at the conference as a whole, I don’t think we can dismiss the big three again in 2022. They typically will recruit better than the other six teams so the losses by Trinity and Colorado College can be compensated for in a normal year. Of course, it also means that their margins are reduced. A key injury or a key recruit not panning out could be the difference between challenging for the SCAC title and not even being considered for the NCAA Tournament. Southwestern has to be the “on paper” favorite in 2022 but this group of players have only been through the NCAA Tournament wars one time and have never won the SCAC Championship. I shudder to think what Coach Long would say if Southwestern is the favorite going into the title game against a more tested Trinity or Colorado College team. Between the rest of the teams, I think we have to watch Austin College. The opportunity is there for their current players and the recruiting class to make SCAC history. Two of the big three could struggle and it could open a door for the ‘Roos. TLU, St. Thomas and Schreiner (!) are in the next group. How they integrate in their new players will be the key to whether they challenge the top 4 or whether they struggle. Right now, things look more difficult for Centenary and Dallas but starting at the 700 or 800 Points mark isn’t that bad. We’ll see teams below that number when we look at the rest of the Region and the nation. With that said, they are basically two good positive seasons before they can challenge the top half of the conference.

So, right now, as spring ball starts up, we can all agree that Southwestern should be handed the SCAC Trophy to save everyone time and effort. The weird thing about sports is that “on paper” doesn’t always translate to “on the court” and I would 100% take the field over Southwestern in the fall. I think what I found the most interesting in all of this is that the SCAC may be as open as it’s ever been. The margins are thinner this year so no telling which of the big three takes control and whether one of the other 6 teams can step up big to challenge them. Looking forward to it!