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SCAC Preview/Predictions
I continue with my preview/prediction posts for the week. Today we look at the Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference (SCAC).
Wednesday – SCAC
Thursday – SCIAC
Friday – West Regional Rankings
Here is my predicted order of finish:
Colorado College
Trinity
Southwestern
Texas Lutheran
Austin College
Centenary
Dallas
JWU (Denver)
Schreiner
Conference Tournament Champion: Colorado College
The SCAC is always about the big three but TLU will try to force their way in or, at least, create a big four this year. There is no reason Colorado College can’t duplicate their success from 2017 and you have to think the team is focused on making it to the Elite 8 this year. Trinity is always tough and if you read their blurb down below, they are even tougher than I originally thought. Southwestern has some holes to fill and it will be interesting to see how well they accomplish this task. (And if you read their blurb down below, you’ll see another hole has opened up on the Pirate’s ship. Basically, you just need to read the blurbs! It’s why they are there!) TLU is always a tough team to play and they should be stronger this year. Austin College looks to have a little drop off this year but not enough to drop in the standings. The Centenary/Dallas comparison is tough as is the JWU/Schreiner comparison. One interesting problem for the SCAC teams looking for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid is that the addition of JWU (at least initially) is going to cause some strength of schedule concerns. It’s one reason why I think some teams in the SCAC are playing more NAIA teams this season than risk playing out-of-conference teams that may also hurt their strength of schedule.
Team Blubs (Records and finish are from 2017)
Colorado College (33-2 overall and 14-0 conference – 1st in SCAC)
They good. They be good again. I mean, really, Colorado College should be one of the top teams in the nation and are my current best bet to represent the west in the Elite 8 this year. They are coming off an outstanding year and they only lost 16% of their points to senior graduation. The big loss is probably Glenna Yancey (MB) but the Tigers are really deep out of the middle and can absorb it. So, basically, it’s the same team coming back just more experienced.
Key Out of Conference Matches – Nebraska Wesleyan, St. Thomas, Pacific, Minnesota-Morris, Pacific Lutheran, Covenant, Chris Newport, UW-Oshkosh and Washington-St. Louis
Trinity (27-8 overall and 11-3 conference – 2nd in SCAC)
Question for you all. When is the senior graduation loss of points correct and wrong at the same time? When you have a senior with an extra year of eligibility that sticks around for the fall season! And now I’ll introduce you to honorable mention All-Region Madeline McKay and her returning 368 points. I wish I had known this bit of news when I did my Top 25 as I now group Trinity with CMS and UT-Dallas (moving from 21 to the 11/12/13 area). The big question now for Trinity is how to replace all-everything 6-rotation Kirby Smith and I think that unknown keeps them behind Colorado College.
Key Out of Conference Matches – Gustavus Adolphus, UW-Stevens Point, Aurora, La Verne, CMS, UT-Dallas, Chicago, Illinois Wesleyan, Millikin and UMHB
Southwestern (30-6 overall and 11-3 conference – 3rd in SCAC)
So, you all know that I love me some Southwestern and it naturally pains me not having them in the top spot of this post. With that said, my brain is telling me that the team lost my All-American “daughter” Kate Mitchell (512 points) along with an outstanding middle in Piper Sizemore and the wonderful Haley Moffett to graduation. My brain also knows that the Pirates lost a valuable underclassman and when you put all that together it spells trouble. My heart, however, reminds me that the last time Southwestern lost this much to senior graduation, they went to the Final 4. So, is this a rebuild or a reload? The Pirates do have a number of underclassmen that are ready to step up and the recruiting class looks to have a couple of possible starters. If my heart wins out then this team can be as good as the 2017 version, which means they are a Top 10 team. For now, my brain says they aren’t. Don’t @ me Coach Flora!
UPDATE – I wrote my previews a couple of weeks before they are being published. It appears that first-team All-Region Megan Grimes is not listed on the 2018 roster and will not be coming back for her senior year at this time. Grimes has been one of my favorite players over the last 3-years and this is obviously a big blow to the Pirates. With regards to the current predictions, I’m going to leave them as they are. I do think logically, TLU is now in the 3rd spot in the conference but I also know that the Pirates are getting in a great setter that will now, most likely, start immediately.
Key Out of Conference Matches – La Verne, Carthage, CMS, Chapman, UT-Tyler, UT-Dallas and UMHB
Texas Lutheran (17-17 overall and 8-6 conference – 4th in SCAC)
TLU had a surprising coaching change a couple of months back but they are coming off a solid year and return the bulk of their team. They’ve got a challenging schedule lined up and are in great position to raise the West Region reputation against strong out-of-region teams. The 2017 team ran on excitement generated from the most annoyingly funny bench in the nation and it will be interesting to see if the new coach is on board with this. Not to worry, because she’s going to love Griffin, Mitchan and Mikelonis and the damage that they can bring to the other team. I can’t remember the last time a team outside of Colorado College, Trinity and Southwestern finished in the top 3 of the SCAC. TLU has a really good chance to break in this year.
UPDATE – TLU just published their 2018 roster. I’ve updated the freshmen on the recruits page. The unfortunate news is that three of their top hitters are not listed and I assume will not be playing this season. This includes first-team All-SCAC Makenzie Griffin and SCAC Freshman of the year Hannah Mikelonis. As far as the predictions, I don’t see TLU getting past Southwestern any longer. In fact, it’s going to be a dogfight to stay above Austin College. Just because I’ve already written the order down, I’ll leave it but a little less drama in the SCAC would be nice.
Key Out of Conference Matches – Heidelberg, UT-Tyler, UT-Dallas, CMS, Chicago, Illinois Wesleyan and Millikin
Austin College (25-13 overall and 6-8 conference – 5th in SCAC)
You can usually pencil Austin College into the 4th spot in the SCAC but they got bounced down a notch by TLU last year. This year they will need to replace two very good hitters, their setter and their libero while TLU doesn’t need to replace anyone. That seems a tough task which is why I think they will repeat their 5th place finish. It’s worth noting that the ‘Roos brought in 15 recruits and there is plenty of height in the mix. Something to watch for in the coming years.
Key Out of Conference Matches – Hendrix, McMurry, UMHB and others (Their full schedule has not been released.)
Centenary (15-20 overall and 4-10 conference – 6th in SCAC)
I had Centenary dropping down a spot this year because I originally thought Dallas didn’t have much graduation loss while Centenary graduated Desiree Frey (446 points). Now that I’ve done the Dallas overview, I’ve moved Centenary back to the 6th spot. Frey will be hard to overcome as well as the loss of a setter but I’m betting on the team that has improved the last three years to continue their growth. Side note, Centenary will play DI Grambling twice this year. They played them last year in two hard fought 5-set losses.
Key Out of Conference Matches – Hendrix (Three times? Oh well, that’s what the schedule says!)
University of Dallas (10-20 overall and 2-12 conference – 7th in SCAC)
The SCAC Tournament will be hosted by Dallas this year and for the last couple of years, the host school hasn’t qualified for the tournament. It’s going to be tough for Dallas to break that streak as they need to get to the 6th spot and I see them falling short. As I mentioned in the Centenary blurb, I had Dallas in that spot until I realized they were losing more players than I originally thought. In truth, the positioning of these two teams will probably come down to whichever one gets the most from their recruits.
Key Out of Conference Matches – Hendrix
JWU-Denver (2-26 in NAIA play)
I don’t know. I just don’t know. I’ve spent more time trying to figure out where JWU will fall versus Schreiner that I’m going a little nuts. JWU joins the SCAC this year as they reclassify from NAIA play. They lose almost their entire team so there is really no way to know how this will all play out. Last year, they did beat Dallas in 5-sets but, like I said, that team graduated. I think this will be a tough year for JWU inside and outside of the SCAC but I think they will finish ahead of Schreiner.
Key Out of Conference Matches – Whitworth, Pacific Lutheran, George Fox, Pacific, Chris Newport and Covenant
Schreiner (0-27 overall and 0-14 conference – 8th in SCAC)
Schreiner University is one of my favorite schools to visit in the SCAC. You can often see deer roaming the campus and there is always a chance to hear one of the parents tell a story about how they ran into a deer on the way to the game (fact). As far as the team, I really struggled to keep them out of the last spot. I think they are returning some key players but the latest version of their roster just shows 6 players, including a freshman. So that has me perplexed although I’ve been told that Schreiner is bringing in a lot of new recruits this year. In the end, I just think JWU will bring in better recruits than Schreiner will and that will be the difference.
Key Out of Conference Matches – Hendrix
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