SCAC Preview/Predictions

Today we look at my first love and the nurturing home of my Southwestern Pirates as I prepare myself for the unstated hatred by Coach Flora and the parents for not picking our team to win the conference. To top it off, I will also have to prepare myself for the silent giggling that everyone else will be doing for picking them too high. I can’t win. Remember, after the predictions I have team blurbs for each school.

Here is the agenda for the week (links are provided for my past work):

• Monday – ASC

• Tuesday – NWC

• Wednesday – SCAC

• Thursday – SCIAC

• Friday – West Regional Rankings

SCAC

1. Colorado College

2. Trinity

3. Southwestern

4. Dallas

5. Texas Lutheran

6. Austin College

7. Centenary

8. Schreiner

9. JWU (Denver)*

10. St. Thomas (TX)*

Conference Tournament Champion – Colorado College

* Teams are not eligible for the SCAC Tournament while they are reclassifying.

Team Blurbs (Records and finish are from 2018)

Colorado College (32-3 overall and 15-1 conference – 1^st Place)

I believe the Tigers could be undefeated going into the NCAA Tournament. They have some very tough teams on the schedule but their toughest will be against Trinity as they are both on neutral courts (a possible third match against Trinity in the conference tournament will also be on a neutral court). The rest of the regionally ranked teams from 2018 that they will play will be at home where they don’t lose. I mean, maybe this is added pressure the Tigers don’t need but there you have it. In fact, if the Tigers do drop a regular season match this year, I need all of their parents that follow the site to just look at their daughters after the match and let them know they let D3VbWest down (unless it’s against Southwestern in which case dinner is on me). The Tigers do lose some really good seniors but have players to step in and the coaching staff always recruits well. It will be interesting to see if senior Jordan Mullen can capture her sophomore form after being injured most of last season. If so then it’s just another reason why the Tigers have a legitimate chance at a national championship. As of this writing, the Tigers have not released their roster so that might present a hiccup but for now they are only losing 21.9% of their points and virtually no loss of digs or assists. Needless to say, I believe the Tigers will take the regular season and conference tournament titles in the SCAC.

Key Out of Conference Matches – Clarkson, La Verne, MIT, Birmingham-Southern, Randolph-Macon and DePauw.

Points Returning – 1692.5

Trinity (25-7 overall and 15-1 conference – 2^nd Place)

If the Colorado College Tigers don’t win the conference then these Tigers are next up. Trinity is losing a libero along with a number of fine hitters, which results in a loss of 40% of their points and 42.1% of their digs. Most years, Trinity is more than capable of making up these types of losses but there is some concern on my part. The Tigers do have 7 recruits coming in with three being listed at 6’ so between those players and the one’s waiting their turn on the bench last season, I think my concern is minimal (not to mention that Trinity is returning 1,229 points). Once again, Trinity will be playing one of the best schedules in the nation so we’ll know pretty early how the team is going. Expect a couple more losses this year but enough quality wins for an at-large bid.

Key Out of Conference Matches – UMHB (twice), Minnesota-Morris, Saint Benedict, UT-Dallas, Pacific Lutheran, Aurora, Juniata, Cal Lutheran, Washington-St. Louis and Ohio Northern.

Points Returning – 1229

Southwestern (18-12 overall and 12-4 conference – 3^rd Place)

We saw with the NWC that I valued Pacific Lutheran even though they were losing a lot of statistics due to graduation and I’m doing the same thing here. Sure, you can call me a homer but frankly one of the other SCAC teams needs to show me that they can beat a Pirates squad on the court before I consider dropping them in these conference previews. With that said, only two teams in the conference are returning fewer points than the Pirates going in to 2019. What Southwestern does well is attract top recruits and that is the only way it makes sense for the Pirates to finish this high in the SCAC. They are going to need a setter and at least one outside hitter from their recruits as well as players that can provide enough depth in case there are injuries (at a minimum). That’s a lot to ask but from the recruit videos it appears there is a lot of talent coming in later this month. The main thing that makes me question this position for the Pirates is how many points both Dallas and TLU are bringing back in 2019. In the end, I expect the Pirates to struggle out of the gate but have it figured out enough by conference play to secure a 3^rd place finish. Oh, do you want to see what my prediction is going up against? The Pirates are losing 64.7% of their points, 71.5% of their digs and 94.6% of their assists. Yikes!

Key Out of Conference Matches – Whittier, Carthage, Pacific Lutheran, Aurora, UT-Dallas, UMHB, Carnegie Mellon and SUNY Geneseo.

Points Returning – 636.5

Dallas (20-15 overall and 7-9 conference – 4^th Place)

The Crusaders surprised many by having a great season in 2018 winning 20 matches and capturing the 4^th seed in the SCAC Tournament. For 2019 they return the second most points in the conference but I still have them in the 4^th spot. The main reason is that I really need to see the Crusaders prove themselves against the traditional powers in the SCAC. I like their schedule as it’s a mix of teams they should be able to have success against mixed in with two of the top teams in the nation. They are taking steps to establish their program at the next level, which only benefits the SCAC and the West Region as a whole. The Crusaders will need to replace their setter but are reasonably set offensively only losing 12.1% of their points (they also lost 38.5% of their digs). Dallas will face tough competition from the teams I have below them but they are my pick to finish 4^th in the SCAC. (I’ll leave you with this nugget since I just finished all of the conference previews. There are only 4 teams that will return 1500 or more points this season. Dallas is one of them.)

Key Out of Conference Matches – CMS and Washington-St. Louis.

Points Returning – 1565.5

Texas Lutheran (9-21 overall and 6-10 conference – 7^th Place)

The Bulldogs have not released their 2019 roster but they really don’t lose anything from senior graduation. TLU did have a down season in 2018 after the unexpected resignation of their coach during the summer and the exodus of some really good players. Still, they did manage a respectable point total and seemed to play quality teams tough last year but there is no denying that missing out on the SCAC Tournament was nothing short of a shock. With most of their players supposed to be coming back, they are returning the third highest amount in the conference. Factoring in the belief that less drama this summer will help them rebound towards a better season I can see the Bulldogs finishing anywhere from 3^rd to 6^th this year and I’ve got them 5^th in this preview. Oh, and TLU will be hosting the conference tournament this year so if they get in they will be well positioned to surprise a team or two.

Key Out of Conference Matches – Cal Lutheran, Whittier, Hendrix and UMHB.

Points Returning – 1470.5

Austin College (16-18 overall and 7-9 conference – 6^th Place)

The ‘Roos had one of the largest rosters in the West Region last season if not the largest and with the addition of 6 recruits and one transfer, you’d expect that trend to continue. But, with five seniors graduating and a number of players that struggled for playing time leaving the program, the roster seems to be down to a more manageable 21. One of the players leaving unexpectedly does cause a bit of an issue as it was their leading hitter, which is a main reason the team is losing 49.1% of their points. The ‘Roos are also losing 48.3% of their digs so with the Crusaders and Bulldogs both returning the bulk of their teams; things look tough for Austin College in 2019. There has been a rumor that a former DI player will be going to school at Austin College but as far as I can tell there has been no success getting her to join the program. Obviously if true, and she ends up playing, it could be a game changer for the ‘Roos. Until then, Austin College will battle Centenary for that 6^th spot, which is the last position to qualify for the SCAC Tournament.

Key Out of Conference Matches – UT-Dallas (twice) and UMHB.

Points Returning – 966

Centenary (18-18 overall and 7-9 conference – 5^th Place)

The Ladies had one of their best seasons ever in 2018 but are losing a chunk of their hitting as well as getting a new coach. Still, they are returning more points than Austin College so if the team adjusts quickly they will be a strong player for a higher spot in the standings. As it stands, the Ladies are losing 41.3% of their points and 32% of their digs. The Ladies will be led by a trio of outstanding sophomores in Davis, Demerjian and Kelley so the future is certainly bright. If the new coaching staff can continue to augment the talent they have then expect Centenary to continue their upward trajectory in the conference and the West Region.

Key Out of Conference Matches – Whittier and UT-Dallas (twice).

Points Returning – 1112

Schreiner (3-27 overall and 2-14 conference – 8^th Place)

I don’t have a 2019 roster for the Mountaineers but they didn’t lose any statistics to graduation so they are certainly poised for a better year. They did have a small roster so any losses will hurt greatly. I believe they have at least 7 recruits coming in this year and the team can certainly use an influx of talent. They are returning 1006 points, which is a respectable number and something they can build on. With two new teams coming into the SCAC, it’s really important that Schreiner improve their play and record until the newer teams can get settled. All signs are pointing that way but I do think they are still a step below the teams ahead of them in my predictions.

Key Out of Conference Matches – None.

Points Returning – 1006

JWU-Denver (2-24 overall and 1-15 conference – 9^th Place)

The Wildcats only have 6 players returning from last year but most were the main contributors to the team in their first year at the DIII level. Overall, they are losing 34.4% of their points, 29.2% of their digs and 62.7% of their assists. With these smaller programs, losses like that are harder to compensate for but the Wildcats are bringing in 7 new recruit, which will help. They have three more years as a provisional DIII member as they continue to build the program to a level that can contend in the SCAC. The Wildcats are not eligible for the SCAC Tournament this year and their wins/losses will not impact other teams for another year.

Key Out of Conference Matches – Randolph-Macon and DePauw.

Points Returning – 615.5

St. Thomas-TX (25-7 in NAIA – First season in SCAC)

The Celts look to have a roster of 14 that includes 7 new faces. As with most teams transitioning to their first year of DIII, they are losing a lot of talent. It boils down to 76% of their points, 76.3% of their digs and 61.9% of their assists. The Celts are coming off a really good year in NAIA but with those losses I just don’t see them escaping the final spot in the SCAC standings. As with JWU, the Celts will not be eligible for the SCAC Tournament and since this is their first year in DIII, their wins/losses will not count for two more years. I am excited at the addition of St. Thomas into the SCAC and having a DIII presence in Houston. Like JWU in Denver, adding programs from big cities should only help recruiting and they provide a wonderful base for these two teams to have future success.

Key Out of Conference Matches – None.

Points Returning – 454.5