SCAC 2024 Statistics Loss

After some time off, I’m back with my start on the senior statistics loss articles. For those new to this game of mine, I go into the NCAA Statistical database and pull the statistics for teams and subtract out what their seniors have contributed. Once upon a time, this would indicate the minimum number of stats that a team would have to replace just to get to where they were the previous season. Post-COVID, we have Super Seniors where players that had to endure 2020 get an extra year of eligibility due to that lost season. The downside of that is that we don’t really know what a team has to replace. I will say that this will be the last year of the Super Senior (at least until someone kisses a Tawny Frogmouth and things go a little too far). Still, I’m continuing this exercise, which started in 2016, and that I stole from Rich Kern.

Through the years, I’ve noticed that when it comes to DIII, it’s the Points that matter and really nothing else translates into wins and losses. Programs seem to more easily replace setters and liberos than hitters so when we see a Points loss of around 45%, we get concerned. (Points are kills + aces + blocks.) We’ve also seen that the bigger programs are more easily able to replace those losses because of their ability to recruit and because of the talent on their bench. Still, even the biggest programs will struggle with Points losses start to exceed that 45% mark.

We start this series off with the SCAC because Southwestern is the first team on my spreadsheet. I guess this means we’ll start with the SAA next year. With Concordia and McMurry making the jump over from the ASC, I will include them here. All totaled, I have 90 teams that we’ll go over in this series. (I thought it was 91 but we lost Sul Ross State to DII in 2024.) Oh, I also included Points/Set in my spreadsheet and I’m sure that will cause me to deviate a bit in the series more than in past years.

Here are the statistics lost to senior graduation in the SCAC sorted by Points lost:

I think Trinity leads in Points Lost each year but, thankfully for them, they also lead the nation in Super Seniors. The NCAA lists 6 seniors for them and we know three are Super Seniors: Nadia Kern, Marisa Amarino and Brette Thornton. Unless Coach Jenkins has another trick up her sleeves, she’ll lose their statistics. That means losing “only” 484.5 Points instead of 1251.5. Now, Nadia was a great libero and Marisa a great setter so we shouldn’t dismiss their contributions, but history says it will be the points they contributed that will be missed. All of that to say, Trinity will be fine in 2024.

TLU has had a historic run with their graduating seniors so their 46.7% loss is a little more concerning. With that said, all three of their seniors have a year of eligibility left so we’ll have to see who, if anyone, returns from that group.

Schreiner had a fantastic 2023 season and showed that they can also return Super Seniors in Brooke Byer and Jacquelyn Sotello but, in the past, a number like 42% Points Loss would be a killer. I will say that this is not your father’s Schreiner and they are definitely on the upswing. It will be fascinating to see how they do in 2024 but my money is that if they do worse it will be because they end up playing a tougher schedule and not because the program can’t replace their losses.

Austin College is the last SCAC program that faces Points Loss of 40% or more. They have four seniors listed but I know at least one is coming back for another season. The ‘Roos also have a large roster so I expect they should be able to recover pretty well.

The other programs are in pretty good shape although Colorado College is supposed to lose Izzy Lipacis, which will be a huge hole to fill. St Thomas will lose Super Senior Trinity Atkins but I think granddaughter Lynee Beam is coming back.

My first impression looking at the table is that in 2023 the SCAC was the toughest conference in Region X top to bottom and I don’t think that will change in 2024.

I added Points/Set to the table (and to my spreadsheet) this year so let’s talk about that, too. I’ve mentioned in the past that 17 Points/Set pretty much gets you into the NCAA Tournament and that played out with only Trinity getting a bid. If we make the assumption that the tournament is the goal for every team then replacing your senior loss is just the first part of the puzzle for 10 of these teams.

Back to Colorado College and they played 113 sets in 2023, which means to get past 17 Points/Set they really needed to get close to 2000 Points. They were at 1846 last season and they’ll lose 713.5 to graduation so they really need to get 900 extra Points next season for a serious run at the tournament. That’s a much bigger ask than just replacing Izzy.

In the case of TLU, it’s rather fascinating that they averaged only 15.42 Points/Set and still won 22 matches. Compare that to Southwestern who finished under 0.500 with a 15.05 Points/Set number. Their Strength of Schedule (SOS) played some role in that Southwestern’s schedule was tougher so did TLU over achieve a bit last year? (And/or Southwestern under achieved?) I guess when I look at this and their Points Loss, I become a little more concerned than I was for TLU in 2024.

Jumping over to Southwestern and that 15.05 Points/Set number while being under 0.500 is interesting. They did play a tough schedule but they also went 0-7 in 5-set matches. Further, five setters restrict your Points/Set number because the fifth set only goes to 15. There definitely were some fine margins in their 2023 season. Fact remains, to get to that 17 Points/Set number in 2024, they need to replace about 260 Points (senior loss) and improve by 200 for a total of 460. That seems to put them in a better position than both TLU and Colorado College. (Unless they insist on losing 5-set matches in the future.)

I think there are a number of us volleyball geeks that are sort of waiting for St Thomas to explode. It really comes down to exploiting the Houston volleyball scene as there definitely seems to be a niche they fill in a huge market where they are the only DIII school. If we assume Trinity Atkins is the only hitter they lose, then they have about 260 Points to replace. Looking at their Points from last season, they need to improve by about 160 for a 420 total. Like Southwestern, they seem to be positioned well although they will need to make those increases against a slightly better set of opponents. (I don’t mean to suggest that finding those last 2 Points/Set is an easy thing. It may be the hardest thing to do in volleyball, but that is the margin between a 17-win St Thomas team or a below 0.500 Southwestern team and making the NCAA Tournament.)

I haven’t really talked about Concordia, Dallas, McMurry or Centenary. None of these teams were above 0.500 but each seems to be returning the bulk of their squad. With the exception of Dallas, these teams basically need to double their Points output and that doesn’t happen with one recruiting class. These teams are on a rebuilding path and will need a good 2 or 3-years to recover.

Dallas is interesting because their 14.48 Points/Set number isn’t bad and can be a base to work from in 2024. What dampens that thought, however, is their 0.500 SOS number. They need to prove they can maintain their output against better teams. Oh, and find an extra 300 Points or so in the process. The SCAC will have 11-teams in 2024 but I really see a split between the top 7 and the bottom 4. Dallas heads up this second group. Can they pull a 2023 Schreiner and barge into that top group? Another question to be answered in about 9 months.

Back to the statistics loss for the conference. It’s interesting that only two teams are losing a setter and, in both cases, they ran a 6-2. There are a few liberos also leaving us but, again, this is really about the hitters. For the most part, this conference looks to be in pretty good shape next season. The real issue is making up the differences that get a team to that 17 Points/Set mark. This conference may never be this strong again with Trinity and Southwestern leaving in 2025 and it would be a shame to see only one SCAC bid into the NCAA Tournament.

Looking ahead with this series, I’ll probably get to the SCIAC next followed by the ASC (could be a short one) and then the NWC. I then have a slew of national teams to go over and I’m not sure if I’ll cover them in one article or multiple ones. For my national readers, I do take requests if you want your school added to the list. Basically, anyone that has ended the year in the Top 25 for the past few years is already on it. This year I will add Cornell, Covenant, Mount St Joseph, North Park, Springfield (that’s for you Emma) and Case Western Reserve.