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Saturday, Nov 16 Match Day!
Updates: I included some matches that could impact the at-large window (or Top 8). My Latvians took some much needed time off so I don’t have the current NPI numbers.
Tournament links are included in the Conference name.
NOTE: I WILL PUT SOME PROJECTIONS AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS POST REGARDING THE AT-LARGE WINDOW. IF I UPDATE THEM DURING THE DAY, I’LL NOTE IT IN THE BODY.
Projections are done. I tweeted some out, too. Whew. Watch out for the ripples!!!! One thing I would suggest, if you have the time, is to watch some of the tournament finals. There are 37 today. The joy is a fun thing to watch.
PROJECTION UPDATE: I THINK I MESSED UP MY ORIGINAL CUT-LINES. I HAD SOUTHWESTERN WITH A CHANCE IF BOTH EASTERN AND MILLIKIN WON. I DON’T THINK THAT IS CORRECT BECAUSE AN EASTERN WIN DOESN’T FREE UP AN ADDITIONAL AT-LARGE SPOT ANYMORE. SOUTHWESTERN CAN ONLY GET AN AT-LARGE IF EVERYTHING IS PERFECT AND THE MATH CHANGES TO GET THEM 0.08 POINTS. I DON’T THINK THE RIPPLES WILL DO THAT.
Not that it matters but I am surprised by the Rochester win over Brandeis. Brandeis is the best 8th place conference team in the nation! Chicago up 2-0 on CWRU is a surprise. No bubble team for Chicago.
Something that will probably generate an article or two at the end of the year will be things like St Thomas beating CC (assuming Southwestern could have beaten CC instead) was enough of a ripple to move Southwestern below the cut-line. Even with a Trinity loss today, they would have been ahead of Swarthmore with the points from CC instead of St Thomas. Small margins.
With Southwestern most likely needing a finals win, there is a dark side of me that is now hoping for total anarchy with all of the finals. Let’s see how many bids can be “stolen”! I’m not proud of these thoughts.
Chicago beats CWRU. Carnegie Mellon is beating NYU 2-1. A win here takes them out of the bubble. NYU is fine either way.
Total anarchy today would be Otterbein over Marietta, Misericordia over Stevens, Earlham over Transy, Middlebury over Colby, Mary Hardin-Baylor over ETBU, IWU over Millikin (weird reverse anarchy there), Southwestern over Trinity (hehe), Rhodes over Centre, Buffalo St over Cortland, Lancaster Bible over Gallaudet, Calvin over Hope, Scranton over Juniata, Messiah over Eastern (reverse anarchy again) and PLU over Whitworth. Who’s joining me on #TeamAnarchy?
CMU takes down NYU. That gets them to 60.08 and secures an at-large bid. Congratulations! PROJECTIONS UPDATED!
Here are real-time updated NPI numbers with the CMU win:
1 Transylvania 0.596 36 "1-Seed"2 Babson 0.596 37 "C" 3 Wis.-Stevens Point 0.596 38 "C" 4 Gallaudet 0.596 39 "1-Seed"5 Otterbein 0.596 40 "C" 6 Calvin 0.596 41 "C" 7 Eastern 0.594 42 "" 8 Southwestern (TX) 0.593 43 "" 9 Northwestern-St. Paul 0.592 44 "1-Seed"10 Endicott 0.591 45 "1-Seed"11 Swarthmore 0.590 46 "" 12 Ill. Wesleyan 0.589 47 "1-Seed"13 Messiah 0.589 48 "1-Seed"14 Middlebury 0.588 49 ""
Disregard the initial numbering. The rankings start with 36 for this grouping. Calvin is last team in. Eastern is first team out. Multiple the NPI by 100 to get what the NCAA does. So Transy is really 59.6.
FYI – I have decided not to drive over to Sherman. I will be streaming.
Virginia Wesleyan takes set one over W&L. Top 8 implications here.
VWU up 2-1. UCSC gets the sweep.
Otterbein up 1-0 and leading in the second. Trying to give Marietta their first loss of the season. Since I have Otterbein in the window as of now, they wouldn’t be “stealing” a bid with a win. Marietta would still be Top 8. (Whoops…in but not Top 8.)
You know, the selection show is really no longer about selection. It’s about where teams are going. There should be no selection surprises on Monday.
Otterbein up 2-0 on Marietta. W&L forces a fifth set. Top 8 is on the line. Emory up 2-0 on WashU.
W&L about to close out VWU in the fifth set. 14-12. The massive number of fans that followed their team at the turn was kind of funny. Top 8 intact. W&L wins.
MIT sweeps Babson. Top 8 intact and Babson will get an at-large bid.
Another Top 8 secured with Emory’s sweep over WashU.
Otterbein is off the bubble and around 60.42. Marietta drops to around 66.33 which is about 11th. Colby would be in the Top 8. PROJECTION UPDATED!
Stevens is in a fifth set. #TeamAnarchy is in effect!
Well….Stevens wins 16-14. They were so close to maybe being bounced from the tournament.
Colby and Middlebury are 1-1.
UMHB up 1-0 on ETBU. Trinity up 1-0 on Southwestern. Middlebury up 2-1 on Colby.
A lot of 1 seeds losing today in conferences where only one bid is going to happen. (Asbury, Nazareth, Westfield State and Denison were all 1s that will not advance.)
Colby trying not to join that club. They have forced a fifth set with Middlebury.
ETBU takes the second set. All tied 1-1.
Southwestern take the second set. All tied 1-1. Colby gets the turn at 8-7.
Salisbury 32-30 over CNU to force a fifth set. Wow.
Middlebury with a late rally to tied the fifth set 14-14. I think Middlebury has to win this to make the NCAA tournament. Colby has to win this to get Top 8.
We have our first Stolen At-Large Bid!!!! Middlebury wins 16-14. Go watch the defense displayed by Colby on match point. It was insane!!! They won the point but a net call gave it to Middlebury. You can see the net move on that point. But, seriously, go watch that point. VIDEO PROJECTIONS UPDATED.
In other news, Marietta drops from the Top 8, pushing in Colby who then loses. Could we see a Top 8 with two UW teams? I haven’t done the math on that.
ETBU up 2-1. CNU wins the C2C. Another 1 seed loses but Salisbury will just take CNU’s at-large bid.
Trinity has a nice comeback in the third set to go up 2-1. Missed opportunity for Southwestern.
Centre sweeps Rhodes. Their final is tomorrow.
Mary Hardin-Baylor is going to force a fifth set. Another stolen bid incoming? #TeamAnarchy
IWU takes the first set against Millikin. I have Calvin out right now unless Millikin wins.
11 service errors by Southwestern. Free points for Trinity. Interesting strategy.
Wow! Huge comeback by ETBU to tie the fourth set 25-25.
Too little, too late. UMHB holds on to win 27-25. They are going to a fifth.
Smith and Springfield are in a fifth set. I think both have at-large bids regardless.
Trinity wins in 4-sets. Happy my Pirates showed well although the fourth set wasn’t close. I don’t think SU gets an at-large so time to get healthy.
8-5, UMHB gets the turn. You know, ETBU wasn’t that far out of the Top 8. This would kill that chance.
ETBU with a late run to take the lead 11-9. #TeamAnarchy taking a hit.
Millikin takes set two. All tied 1-1.
14-11 ETBU. Now 14-13. Graycee Mosley on the backrow. Avery Reid had two attempts at it. Will she get a third?
14-14. Extras. Reid 23rd kill. 15-14 ETBU.
17-17 Mosley on front row.
4th match point does the trick for ETBU. Mosley with the kill. UMHB had 2 match points of their own. UMHB setter dump on match point was picked up easily which led to the Mosley kill. Great effort by UMHB today. They played for their coach and their school and gave ETBU almost more than they could handle.
Dinner time…you guys are on your own for a bit.
Top 8 before UW match.
1 Juniata 1 0.779 1-Seed 2 MIT 2 0.735 1-Seed 3 Johns Hopkins 3 0.722 1-Seed 4 Emory 4 0.702 A 5 Hope 5 0.697 1-Seed 6 Wash. & Lee 6 0.684 A 7 Wis.-Oshkosh 7 0.680 1-Seed 8 Wis.-Whitewater 8 0.668 C
Marietta is 9th.
Back from dinner. Latvians say Marietta will be back in Top 8 if Whitewater loses. I’m checking what happens if Oshkosh loses.
The big match we were waiting for was IWU/Millikin and IWU and #TeamAnarchy pull it out. One less at-large bid coupled with the one Middlebury took. (In fairness to Middlebury, we’ll have to see the final numbers to know if they are in the window or not.) (NOTE – My math says they would not have received an at-large with their final number.)
Hope is up on Calvin 2-1. It’s quite possible that Calvin must win to be in the NCAA Tournament due to Middlebury and IWU.
Messiah is up 1-0 on Eastern. This match is simply a win and you make it and lose you don’t.
Hope wins in 4-sets. Will Calvin be first team out? That would make UWSP last team in.
My napkin math says if Whitewater beats Oshkosh then both teams would be in the Top 8. I would have UWO slightly above Marietta.
UWO/UWW stream is now working if you were waiting like me.
Berry had the sweep today. Final set was 33-31 over Hendrix.
Okay, the color commentator of the UWW/UWO game just said, “She led the “why”…”we ack”…” What the frick? You had it right. Don’t correct yourself because the main guys says it wrong.
UWO up 1-0. Messiah now up 2-1 on Eastern.
UWW ties it up.
As a reminder, I will put the All-Conference Tournament teams in the 2024 Awards Page when I learn of them. I’ve got ASC, C2C and SCAC entered.
Too much good going on. Whitworth up 1-0. Oshkosh 2-1. CMS/ULV just had a great point at 22-20 in the first set.
ULV 25-23. ULV had 19 Points/Set and CMS had 22 Points/Set. The only way you lose a 22 P/S set is if the other team was outstanding (check) and don’t commit hardly any errors (check).
UWW/UWO is going 5-sets. They really should have just assumed this and only played the 5th. Whitworth is up 2-0 on PLU.
UWO gets the turn at 8-7.
La Verne up 2-0. Came back from a big deficit to win set two going away. I think La Verne had a perfect offensive set. They had 25 Points/Set in a 25 point set. They earned 100% of their points in that set. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that. (I probably need to watch more Juniata volleyball, I guess.)
Messiah ends Eastern’s season.
Whitewater beats Oshkosh. We will have to see how the official numbers look, but that might mean both taems are Top 8. I believe both teams have submitted bids. If W&L didn’t submit then we are probably looking at Ithaca or surrounding area.
Both PLU and CMS need comebacks in the third set to stay alive and both are working on it.
La Verne is using Gott on the right side at times to try to slow down the left side attack from CMS.
Congratulations to Whitworth for their perfect conference season. They sweep PLU.
I don’t think Mya Ray is going to let La Verne lose here. She is bombing. CMS needs to work here as she moves to the backrow.
24-19 ULV. 5 Match points. 24-20. 24-21. 24-22. Timeout.
Congratulations to La Verne for their first every SCIAC Tournament Championship. They sweep CMS.
SCIAC only gives out one tournament award. It goes to Mya Ray.
I will have the NPI updated it a bit. Here is your Top 8 (unofficial NPI numbers):
1 Juniata 0.778 1 A 2 MIT 0.735 2 1-Seed3 Johns Hopkins 0.722 3 1-Seed4 Emory 0.702 4 A 5 Hope 0.697 5 A 6 Wash. & Lee 0.685 6 A 7 Wis.-Whitewater 0.677 7 A 8 Wis.-Oshkosh 0.671 8 C 9 Marietta 0.664 9 C
Official NCAA NPI numbers are out. We’ll catchup in a few. Props to them for being so quick this weekend.
NCAA Scoreboard Ricky’s site has a page with all of the conference tournament links.
(NPI numbers as of yesterday.)
NYU 1 Carnegie Mellon 3Otterbein 3 Marietta 1Middlebury 3 Colby 2Millikin 2 IWU 3Calvin 1 Hope 3Eastern 2 at Messiah 3UW-Whitewater 3 UW-Oshkosh 2
Region X Matches:
Random Thoughts: I’m unsure if I’ll make the drive over for the SCAC finals. My (hot) wife was worn down from the first real long day we’ve had since her accident. We shall see if I go solo.
Finals day in the Region!!!
UMHB will play at ETBU in the ASC final. I think ETBU is too tough especially at home. I’m sure UMHB will be extra motivated to win this for their sidelined coach.
UC Santa Cruz will get the 3rd place game in the C2C against Mary Washington. They should end the season with a win, which very few teams can say.
Whitworth will host Pacific Lutheran in the NWC final and it could be close but I think this goes to Whitworth.
Trinity gets to play my Pirates in the SCAC final. My granddaughters put up a heck of an effort to win in 5-sets in the semi-finals but I just don’t see them taking down Trinity without getting real healthy really quick.
Our final final is in the SCIAC. CMS looked really good against Pomona-Pitzer but I’ll stick with my La Verne pick.
PROJECTIONS
All projections assume a loss in the final match.
All projections are based on yesterday’s number. They do not factor in results from today. That’s the ripple!
All projected cut-lines ASSUME no at-large window teams get upset by a team outside of the window! If that happens, everything moves up one!
Northwestern, with a loss today, would be at 58.4328. They would be eliminated.
If you are below the projected cut-line, you are hoping for ripples and math errors.
Babson 59.6483 Smith 59.6364 UW-Stevens Point 59.5473 (they are done) —- Projected Cut-Line — Calvin 59.3432Swarthmore 58.9051 Eastern 58.9032 Southwestern 58.8208 Ohio Northern 58.4468 (they are done)
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