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Roster Analysis – Part 4
This is the fourth installment of my roster analysis series. The following teams were covered in the previous installments:
The point of this series is to look a little more in-depth at the 2019 rosters of teams that I think have a chance to be at the top of the West Region this season or teams that have been traditional powers that may struggle a bit. This go-around I’ve got Cal Lutheran, Chapman, Pacific Lutheran and Puget Sound.
Cal Lutheran is one of my safety picks in the West Region this year. By this I mean I have three teams I really like and then I just trust that Trinity and Cal Lutheran can make up their losses from senior graduation. After the Trinity analysis, I felt more confident in that pick so let’s see if Cal Lu can follow suit. Their 2018 roster had 20 players but they lost 5 to graduation including some important players in Amanda Roberts (402 points), Paris Dosch (155.5 points) and Stephanie Rolfson (796 assists). With their roster now published, we see that they are losing 4 more players including two that had over 100 points in 2018. I guess the first question for the Regals will be whether Jennifer Kent runs a 5-1 or a 6-2 this season. She is the only setter on the roster but there is one recruit coming in at that position. Assuming she plays all around, it looks like the team needs to figure out their three pin hitters and find another middle to pair up with Maci Haddad. There are certainly a number of options in the attack with 6 players getting 100 or more swings last season but these are all pin hitters. The middle is most likely going to have to come from the recruits.
Although the Regals list their 7 recruits as freshman, I believe one of them is a junior transfer from a DI program that shut down last year. If that is the case then add another name to the right side competition and this may mean a 6-2 formation is likely. There were three players brought in that play middle and all are over 6’ so it appears that one of them can take hold of the open position there.
Overall, the additional loss of those two 100+ players concern me as the Regals now have a 50.1% points loss and return less than 1000 points from 2018. It’s wonderful to have Haddad in the middle and be that go-to player but others will need to step up. I had Cal Lutheran 2nd in the SCIAC but now I believe the difference in teams 2 through 7 is closer with the SCIAC tournament spots 2-4 now a crapshoot. Another concern is the lack of efficiency of their returners. MacArthur and Hein were the two returning pin hitters with the most swings but both hit under 0.100 last season. That kind of performance can’t be repeated unless other players will step into those positions.
I certainly have a one-sided love/hate relationship with Chapman (they probably just hate me). I love their two outstanding freshmen from last season in Jessi Lumsden and Sophie Srivastava but I hate that they don’t make full use of their 3 non-conference weeks and don’t travel out of SoCal at all. I’m worried they could be a relatively high West Region team but not have the skins on the wall to get an at-large bid. Let me get past that for now and just focus on their roster, which unfortunately doesn’t include their full list of recruits. The Panthers had 19 on the roster to end 2018 and had 6 seniors graduate. This included a couple of setters that shared time, Lauren Friend (264.5 points), Courtney Justus (140 points) and libero Sara Utsugi (448 digs). We can see from their partial roster that they are also losing 3 additional players that didn’t play much but one was a setter that I thought would have a chance to step in this year. This pretty much means that Srivastava will continue to set and play right side rather than focus solely on hitting and the other setter will come from the recruits. It also means there are a number of other spots open (outside, middle, opposite and libero) assuming Munoz has one of the middle positions nailed down. Other than setter, there are players returning that can fill these holes but only two other attackers had more than 100 swings in 2018. With that said, I do like both players and I think that each of them will claim one of the four open positions.
I currently have 6 recruits listed for Chapman but that doesn’t mean that there are not others. As it stands the Panthers’ roster would be at 16, which is a little low so expect a few more to show up once everything becomes official. I only see one setter in the recruits I have so for now she is going to have to start. There are also three defensive players which will compete for the libero spot with Fuelling. Whoever doesn’t win the libero spot will still be needed as the team is losing 62% of their digs. The other two spots are middles (both over 6’) so I expect them to compete with Nunes on the open middle position.
Overall, this is a lot to ask from recruits and yet I have the Panthers in the #3 spot in the SCIAC. The main reason is that they are still returning over 1000 points (now more than Cal Lutheran) and have two go-to players locked in for 2019. After going through this little exercise, however, it’s clear that if the recruits don’t contribute right away that we could see the Panthers towards the back half of the conference at the end of the year. Another fear I have with this team is the service receive and back line and again I don’t think this gets solved without recruits stepping up. I know I sound like a broken record but the margins between these SCIAC teams is just razor thin and in the larger West Region picture that’s not a good thing. We need one or two of these teams to step up and lock down the #2 and #3 spots in conference to look better to the selection committee come November. Having a bunch of teams at 9-7 and 8-8 after CMS means we better destroy the out-of-region teams the SCIAC plays.
Pacific Lutheran has been first or second in conference since 2006, which is quite a run and one that I’m predicting will end this season. From their roster of 17 last season they are losing 5 seniors and they accounted for over 50% of their assists, digs and points. That’s a red flag for any team and include an outside (Epker), middle (Harris), libero (Shiramizu) and setter/opposite (Zubrod). The good news for the Lutes is that everyone else appears to be returning and they actually have players that could fill in at every position with the question, of course, being can they replicate the outgoing statistics. Middle Danielle Skibiel will lead the attack and we may see both Wilson and Pfeiffer take control of the outside positions with Nelson continuing to set in either a 5-1 or 6-2 formation. From the 2018 bench, we may see Hulett move to a pin hitter position and Dulaney take over at setter if they Lutes run a 6-2 again. There are a number of players that will be competing for the open libero and middle spot so options are there for the coaching staff. The worry are those 50% losses and the fact that most teams take 2 years to recover from that kind of hit.
The Lutes are bringing in 9 recruits with every position represented. This just means that every open position will have multiple players competing and we could see one or more of these players push into the starting lineup. I would actually be surprised if at least one pin hitter doesn’t start from this group.
Overall, I had the Lutes finishing 4th in the NWC on the strength of their bench and the ability of the coaching staff to recruit. As much as I love their history the team is still only returning 606 points and Skibiel can’t do it all. On the flip side, I’ve seen really good teams play their starters for a couple of years while others have to wait only to explode on the scene when given a chance. With the Lutes, this is now the 2018 benches chance to show their stuff and if one or two can embrace the challenge and put up top numbers then the Lutes’ streak of top 2 finishes could continue. Since you’ve read this much, watch out for Jazz Alston who is a shorter middle that can just fly. She only had 25 attempts last season but she can get on top of balls and pound them to the floor. She may get her chance either at middle or right side.
Puget Sound went 12-12 last season and finished 4th in the NWC but this was an extremely young team that went 8-1 in conference before injuries curtailed their second half. The Loggers had a large roster of 22 players at the end of the season and lost 4 to graduation. The senior that will be the hardest to replace will be outside hitter Kristen Miguel but she was only 5th on the team in points, which gives you an idea of how much the youth did contribute in 2018. With the release of the 2019 roster, we can see that the Loggers are losing 3 more players with the biggest hit being their libero (she converted from outside last season). The middles look set with Siacotos and Alloway as well as the setters (Blumenfield and Ayau). Sarah Blumenfield is a triple-double threat as she plays across the front in a 6-2 that I don’t expect will change. That leaves the pins (two outsides and an opposite) and the libero with one of the outside spots going to their 2018 points leader in Alli Reviglio. Look for Holman, Bean and Johnson to compete for the other two spots but there will be competition from their recruits. Honestly, the biggest worry here is the libero position as it looks to come down to Kathleen Brown or a recruit.
I mentioned those Logger recruits above and the team will be bringing in 8 new faces in 2019 bringing their roster up to 23. There are two from Hawaii and both could be in the mix for the starting lineup on the first day (libero and opposite). As a group, the team is bringing in a some good height and there are a couple of others that can compete for the outside position.
Overall, the team needs to find their libero and lockdown their back row defense. They have their attack in place only losing 19.8% of their points and it appears they should exceed their offense from last season. They had 1355.5 points last season and are returning over 1000 but I expect by the end of this season that their total will exceed 1600. In my NWC preview I have the Loggers finishing second but I hedged my bets by placing them in my West Region Top 8. I guess the real question is whether this team is ready to make a giant leap this year or will it take two years. What I do know is that this is a team on the rise that could include multiple NCAA Tournament bids very soon.
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