Ricky Nelson’s 2014 projected field of 64

This is what I think the field should be. History has shown that this not what it will be.

My yearly at-large matches with the national selection committee. 2013: 16-of-21 2012: 19-of-22 2011: 19-of-22 2010: 19-of-21 2009: 19-of-22 2008: 20-of-23

The actual tournament field will be revealed during an online selection show on Monday at 10 a.m. central.

Pool A (44) Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference: Franciscan American Southwest Conference: Mary Hardin-Baylor Capital Athletic Conference: Christopher Newport Centennial Conference: Franklin & Marshall City University of New York Athletic Conference: Hunter College Conference of Illinois & Wisconsin: Carthage Colonial States Athletic Conference: Cabrini Commonwealth Coast Conference: Roger Williams Commonwealth Conference: Stevenson Empire 8: Stevens Freedom Conference: Eastern Great Northeast Athletic Conference: Rivier Great South Athletic Conference: Salem Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference: Bluffton Iowa Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: Coe Landmark Conference: Juniata Liberty League: Clarkson Little East Conference: Western Connecticut State Massachusetts State College Athletic Conference: Framingham State Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association: Calvin Midwest Conference: Cornell Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: St. Thomas New England Collegiate Conference: Regis New England Small College Athletic Conference: Williams New England Women’s and Men’s Athletics Conference: Babson New Jersey Athletic Conference: Richard Stockton North Atlantic Conference: Colby-Sawyer North Coast Athletic Conference: Wittenberg North Eastern Athletic Conference: Gallaudet Northern Athletics Collegiate Conference: Dominican Northwest Conference: Whitworth Ohio Athletic Conference: Mount Union Old Dominion Athletic Conference: Washington and Lee Presidents’ Athletic Conference: Thomas More Skyline Conference: Sage Southern Athletic Association: Hendrix Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: Cal Lutheran Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference: Trinity (Texas) St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: Webster State University of New York Athletic Conference: New Paltz State University Athletic Association: Emory Upper Midwest Conference: Northwestern USA South Athletic Conference: Maryville Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: Wisconsin-Stevens Point

Pool C (20)Augsburg Bowdoin Chicago Claremont-Mudd-Scripps Colorado College DePauw Elmhurst Haverford Hope La Verne Millikin Nebraska Wesleyan Pacific Lutheran Saint Benedict Southwestern Tufts Springfield Wartburg MIT Washington-St. Louis Wisconsin Oshkosh Wisconsin-Whitewater

My deciding factor was signature wins. They are all very close near the end. Always are. I think the best way to separate close teams – when schedule strength, common opponents, head-to-head, etc., have not created clear separation – is to see how they fared against top competition. Not all SOS figures, results against ranked opponents and divisional records are created equal.

My selected teams have beaten top competition, which is what we’re down to now. There’s a huge difference between a team that very well couldbeat some of the best and a team that has alreadybeaten some of the best. Again, when other criteria are relatively equal.

Ten teams the NCAA may select instead: MIT; John Carroll; UMass Boston; Tufts; Randolph-Macon; Lebanon Valley; Carnegie Mellon; Nazareth; Texas Dallas; Birmingham-Southern.

While we await official word from Indianapolis, tell me where I’m wrong. I’ll be back online near 5 central.

-Ricky Nelson