Revisiting Schedules

My schedule is a little off this week due to our vacation but something I’ve been wanting to write about is how the teams we looked at in our schedule analysis articles are doing. I summarized everything in a page on the left side if you need a refresher. I have reprinted the table from that page at the bottom of this article as I’ll reference it quite a lot.

As a reminder, I looked at schedules and used the 2024 NPI values for our projections. From those numbers we were able to determine a Maximum NPI (assuming the 2025 NPIs stayed constant, which they will not). I also created a column called “Loss n”, which was basically the NPI of the team assuming they lost to every team they played that finished above the at-large cut-line last season. We looked at the spread of their matches across NPI ranges and determined a Maximum Loss number, which gives some insight into how many matches the team might be able to lose in 2025.

After looking at all of the teams (29 in total), I felt that I discovered a pattern for NPI friendly schedules. My criteria is that their Maximum NPI will fall between 67 and 70 and their “Loss n” number will be above 61. I also determined that having 3 more Maximum Losses than Elite Schools played (teams 60 or over in NPI from 2024) is also critical. Only two teams satisfied that criteria and they were Calvin and Southwestern.

Teams with really difficult schedules were Juniata (Max NPI of 75.92), Oshkosh (79.61), IWU (77.55), Chris Newport (79.68), Johns Hopkins (75.77), Trinity (74.08), Emory (75.06) and Berry (77.07).

Schools with a schedule where Maximum Loss was less than the number of Elite schools played (indicating a very top-heavy schedule or anti-NPI) were Oshkosh (-1), Whittier (-1), Washington & Lee (-1), Emory (-2) and La Verne (-1). In a nutshell, this meant that the schedule contained too many top teams to the point that the rest of the schedule couldn’t compensate for projected losses. Of course, winning those matches puts the team in great shape. We talk about NPI in the sense that you are fine if you just win. Wins are good and losses are penalized but what I looked at here was how well do teams position themselves to compensate for losses. We don’t need a schedule analysis for teams that just win.

I want to start with the two NPI friendly teams in Southwestern and Calvin. Both teams have two losses as of yesterday. Southwestern has 10 wins while Calvin has 9. Both teams are currently above the at-large cut-line with Southwestern at 59.48 and Calvin at 58.48. Their used opponent NPI (uoNPI) are almost the same at 52.96 versus 52.65. That means their schedule to date has been almost identical according to NPI. Strength of Schedule (SOS) says that Southwestern has played a tougher schedule but Calvin is still at 0.595. Southwestern has won two Quality Win Bonus (QWB) matches and that certainly explains most of the nearly 1 NPI point advantage.

Southwestern had two Elite programs on their schedule (both Trinity) who they have yet to play. Calvin had one (Hope) who they have yet to play. The big unknown with this type of schedule analysis is whether the 2024 NPI numbers will be close to the 2025 numbers. In this case, Trinity looks like they will be Elite again while Hope is questionable. As you remember, both teams already have 2 losses and none of those are to 2024 elite teams so things look kind of bleak despite their good NPI numbers now.

With Southwestern, however, their 2025 schedule has proven more difficult than anticipated. They took a loss to IWU who is a 60+ NPI team right now and beat another 60+ NPI team in Gustavus Adolphus. They also have a win over St Thomas who has moved into the 55 to 60 range, which the 2024 numbers didn’t indicate. The rest of their opponents are holding form and despite suffering the worst NPI upset of the season to Pacific Lutheran, Southwestern still seems like they are in good shape.

With Calvin, they ran into a 2025 60+ NPI team in Dubuque and also lost to UW-Stevens Point (53.5). The concern here is that Calvin’s best win is against Lawrence who has an NPI of just 54.7. Per the 2024 numbers, Calvin is supposed to play 8 teams in the 55 to 60 range but they have just played one and that was a loss. Looking at the rest of their schedule, they have just four teams in that range now (remember that NPI is going to increase for most teams). They are Hope, Carthage, Saint Mary’s (IN) and Albion. I think it’s safe to say that Calvin’s 2025 schedule is playing softer than anticipated using 2024 numbers and that could be a problem even with three wins from that group. That, of course, is the great risk with “NPI Friendly” schedules. What if they turn out to be softer than planned?

Let’s turn our attention to Oshkosh who had one of the more difficult schedules out there. I talked to a number of coaches who were in disbelief over their schedule when it dropped. They scheduled twelve 2024 elite programs and seven in the 55 to 60 range. Oshkosh also has two losses to go with their 13 wins. They have the 6^th best NPI right now at 61.71. Their uoNPI is an impressive 55.79 and they have 5 QWB matches in the book. Their SOS is only 0.609 (less than Southwestern’s) because they’ve played some weaker teams out of those 15 matches. To date, they’ve only played two Elite programs in WashU and La Verne (going 1-1). Again, remember that NPI numbers will play up as we go through the season. In that next range of teams, they are 4-1 and that is where they have propped their NPI up. What’s interesting here is that the Oshkosh schedule (right now) is playing softer than anticipated with the 2024 numbers and actually morphing it into an NPI friendly schedule. That will change with the WIAC portion of their schedule. They also get IWU, Colby and Juniata. Still, Oshkosh is positioned well with those quality wins and have shown they can play and beat tough teams.

Next up is ETBU (our NPI leader) because I have a point to make here. They are undefeated so no need to go in depth here. Their Maximum NPI was thought to be 69.15 but the are already at 66.15. We know that the NPI numbers will increase but can they exceed that anticipated maximum number? Right now, their three worst-best losses are UW-Stevens Point (53.5), Carroll (52.2) and Concordia (51.6). (Yes, the irony is not lost on me that Calvin has a loss to UWSP while ETBU is trying to improve that win.) Their best bet for improvement is within their conference. All three teams (two of which they play twice) are above their lowest used win. Both HSU and Mary Hardin-Baylor are above 55 right now. They also have Berry and Hendrix (both above 55) and Centre on the schedule. They have the opponents to firm up their NPI and get to that 69 number and maybe a little bit more. That’s if they stay undefeated and even if they do that, it does not look like they would be a top 4 NPI team. (They would still be in the protected top 8.) The thing to watch for is a loss, which they can absorb easily but a top 8 finish should be the goal and their schedule is making it difficult to get there…unless they just keep winning.  

Let’s end this article with Emory (sorry, can’t do them all) because they had one of the lowest “Loss n” numbers which just means they were forced to beat some of the elite teams they had on the schedule. If you remember, Emory also didn’t have a lot of matches on their schedule but they do get the UAA Conference Tournament which has extra matches built into it. (This helps if the conference does well in NPI and hurts if they don’t.) Emory has (like everyone else) two losses to go along with their 8 wins. Their two toughest opponents (per NPI) were Oshkosh and Berry who they lost to. Their best win is CMS who is at 56.1. None of their other wins are close to that one. This is why they are currently at 55.63 and under the at-large cut-line. (The CMS match is their only QWB win.) Emory is going to play their first UAA pod of the season this weekend. The UAA is doing fine in NPI but not as good as last year. They do have seven of their eight teams above 50 but only 3 teams higher than Emory who can really boost their NPI. The teams on their schedule above 55 NPI right now are Carnegie Mellon, NYU, Trinity, WashU, Ithaca, Wash. & Lee and Berry (again). That’s seven matches. Emory is currently using six (of their eight) wins that are all teams below 50 NPI. As you can see, there are not a lot of matches that can boost Emory moving forward and they are really in a crunch if they lose one or two of those games. This may be a team that will need those extra matches in their conference tournament. (The uoNPI number for Emory right now is a poor 49.49.)

As I mentioned at the top, the table is below for all 29 teams. I may try to look at this again if other stories come to light.

If you want to help cover some of the costs of the site, then please consider a visit to the D3VbWest Store where you can buy some merch or even make a straight-up donation.