Regionals Day 3

Updates: As a reminder, here were your Top 11 in Hitting Percentage from the regular season:

1. CMS

2. Northwestern

3. Calvin

4. Wittenberg

5. Transylvania

6. Juniata

7. Trinity

8. WashU

9. Wesleyan

10. Berry

11. MIT

Eight of the eleven are still in the tournament. A maximum of six can make it to the Elite 8.

I’m hearing from my Latvian spies who happen to be vacationing in California (I must pay them too much) that Emily Ellis (Trinity) has an injury. I’m really sad for her and hope she’s able to make it on to the court tonight.

As they say, “It’s 5 o’clock somewhere.” Matches have started!

Six matches ongoing. First set winners are Berry, Hope, Williams (!), Johns Hopkins, Juniata and MIT.

I think the guy doing color for Calvin/Hope is a COVID buddy judging by that cough.

The set two status: Berry and Transy are split along with NYU/Williams and Hope/Calvin. JHU, Juniata and MIT are all up 2-0.

Northwestern/Whitewater are about to start just leaving the two good guys left on the schedule.

Let’s talk about Juniata for a second. They have just swept CNU and are the first Elite 8 team. In 2017 we started reseeding the Elite 8. Prior to this time, the regionals were ranked based on difficulty and you could see the ranking based on where the regionals were placed in the official bracket. Anyway, Juniata is one of the best teams in the nation. They are one of the few teams all year that I thought could win the national championship. For this tournament, they were given one of the easiest regionals. It might have been the easiest except that they were in it. So, maybe they get the 6th most difficult. That would have meant they would play the winner of the 3rd hardest. That’s probably the winner of the CMS/Trinity match. (Really, just spit balling here.) So, is that more fair or is the reseeding more fair? With reseeding, they could end up 2nd and face Mary Washington winner or Tufts winner. With reseeding, they basically don’t play anyone (sorry, little harsh) until they get to the Final 4. The flip side is the CMS/Trinity side. Play a tough regional and then play Juniata in the Elite 8. The main problem with the reseeding is that it’s done by the criteria, which doesn’t accurately reflect the talent of the teams. Usually, the New England teams get a much higher seeding then you would think. Anyway, I don’t like reseeding but see problems with both although the real problem is the unbalanced regionals. What about figuring out the top 4 teams and then letting them pick which of the other four they want to play? That seems more fair to me but that will never be done.

Congratulations to MIT. They are the second Elite 8 team.

The Tufts gym is pretty but it doesn’t look like it seats many people. Add JHU to the Elite 8. Congratulations!

The other three matches are Transy 2-1, Hope 2-1 and NYU 2-1. UWW/NW still in the first set.

Whitewater takes down Northwestern in the first set. Interesting. I can’t really fathom an Elite 8 without Northwestern and Calvin (both losing). Throw in Emory and either CMS or Trinity, too.

I have JHU above MIT in the Elite 8 reseeding. JHU has a Common Opponent advantage and an SOS advantage. MIT has record and a better Ranked Record (although JHU has beaten better teams). Based on my Williams Case Study work, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Committee value the “Record” and put them over JHU.

NYU takes down upstart Williams in 4-sets. Congratulations!

Calvin/Hope going to the 5th set.

Attendance for NYU match was 50. Never a good number when the host goes down.

Calvin is in trouble. Transy takes down Berry 3-1. Pulling for Berry but beating in-form Transy at home was a tough order.

Calvin with a big comeback in the fifth set. Tied 10-10.

Hope now winning. They have Lockett on the front row but Westra (Calvin) is on the backrow. 14-11 but now Lockett is backrow. Wow. Hope wins. What a turnaround for this team that lost to Albion in their tournament last week.

Looking at the Elite 8 reseeding, I think Hope will be the last seed regardless of how the final two matches go. It’s possible that MIT gets moved ahead of JHU because they are from New England and Hope moves ahead of JHU but I think you really have to manipulate the Ranked Results to get something different than what I have.

Northwestern is up 2-1 after dropping the first set.

Northwestern wins in the fourth set. They are the only team that had students rush the court. Always cool to see but I’m sure it’s frowned upon.

NYU could be seeded above Northwestern.

Just one more team that can make the Elite 8.

Hoping someone moves the cable from the center camera. No Emily Ellis for Trinity.

If CMS wins, they will be the one seed. If Trinity wins, they will be either the 2nd, 3rd or 4th seed. Very close between those teams.

Lot of position flexibility with CMS. Right sides and left sides are interchangeable it seems. Brooke McKee starting is an interesting choice. Could mean Summer Ellis is hurt. Probably just means yet another lineup.

Dede Carranza is having a match and it’s only the first set. CMS take set one. McKee paying off. 5 kills on 7 swings.

Midway through set two and CMS is not playing well. Trinity up 16-13. This feels like a set Trinity must win and CMS, so far, is helping them.

Trinity 22-20 with Flynn coming out. Can they hold?

And, they do as they take it 26-24. Too many errors for CMS in this one. Played better the second part of the set but Trinity is too strong to give them that many points. Sara Flynn got going in that set so watch out. Too many errors from Sakoda and not enough swings for Holmes. Bell didn’t have a kill until midway through the second set and they need her. McKee playing well for CMS. Carranza is insane. Logan doing well for Trinity and Thornton filling in well for Emily Ellis.

Trinity 23-21 with Flynn coming off. Set point goes from an ace to a CMS kill.

Trinity wins it 25-23 and are up 2-1. Huge upset upcoming? CMS had 19 kills and Trinity only made 4 attack errors. That’s the entire 23 points. No other errors by Trinity. CMS played a complete set three and lost. All they can do is reduce their errors or hope Trinity calms down.

2-2 in the fourth and a touch call that was ignored. After a long break, the up ref honored the call. Not sure how it was a touch as the ball seemed to be hit too high. The linesmen have not been great in this. A few calls that look suspect for both teams in this one.

Trinity’s defense (everyone) is just outstanding right now. Block is getting going, too. Not sure this is going to a fifth.

We are going to a fifth set. CMS really picked it up in that one. Here’s the deal, CMS has more firepower but everything else about these teams is pretty equal. If they both play to their abilities, CMS wins. If CMS falters in any one area and Trinity doesn’t, then it probably goes to Trinity.

Trinity is 2-1 in 5-set matches this season. CMS has not played a 5-set match this season.

Sakado has really reduced her errors.

Holmes is on the front row at 7-8. They need to use her and gain separation or this match is Trinity’s.

Timeout Trinity with CMS leading 10-8. I think Holmes has the last 3 points.

Timeout works. 11-10 Trinity after a great rundown play. Surprised there is no CMS timeout. And they are lucky to win that point. 11-11.

Homes on the backrow at 11-11. I think this goes to Trinity unless someone steps up for CMS.

Trinity Match Point but they hit it out. 14-14 now, timeout Trinity. I think a setter dump for either side might work as both teams are banging all match.

Congratulations to Trinity for being our 8th team to make the Elite 8. Great match.

I’m going to slot them into the 2nd spot just because I think that win should be valued in their Ranked Results. I still think Juniata gets the first seed.

Great match. No telling how much not playing in a 5-set match factored into it for CMS. They just haven’t been tested for a couple of months. Trinity is just so solid and so experienced and I think that did factor into it. Just a shame one of these teams had to go home. If Trinity doesn’t lose the SCAC Tournament then I doubt CMS hosts and both teams are separated. No telling what happens then.

Only 3 #1 seeds survived to the Elite 8. Only 3 hosts survived, too.

Crazy box score! CMS Scored 93 Points. That’s almost 19 Points/Set and one of them is to 15! Crazy. Trinity had 77 Points, which is great for a 5-set match, but did they really win it? CMS outhit Trinity and had more digs. What did we see? I think the best team in the nation were just eliminated. Crazy!

Here are the current Elite 8 Teams in the order I think they will be ranked based on the criteria prior to the tournament (this will not be correct):

1. Juniata

2. Trinity

3. Northwestern

4. NYU

5. Transylvania

6. Johns Hopkins

7. MIT

8. Hope

Update! MIAA-Fan has included the updated SOS numbers:

Juniata 0.637, Trinity 0.631, Northwestern 0.576, NYU 0.671, Transy 0.627, JHU 0.657, MIT 0.636 and Hope 0.621.

I did my ordering above based on numbers prior to this weekend. The Common Opponent numbers will change, too. For instance, if we look at Juniata/Trinity, I gave it to Juniata because of Record, CO and SOS. There is no reason to factor anything else in. But, with the new SOS numbers, they lose that advantage because it’s so close. Trinity has a H2H and Ranked Results is a debate. Basically, it means the Committee could swap these spots.

Random Thoughts: Just one #1 seed didn’t make it to today and that was Emory. Only one host didn’t make it to today and that was Wesleyan.

Kind of annoying the CMS match is so late, but it stretches things out a bit.