Regionals Day 1 (2024)

Updates: Like last year, I’m going with cat pictures this weekend! This is now the grown-up Decker.

My understanding is that the NCAA may update their NPI Rankings daily. You can find that here. (Make sure you update the date.)

Still time to enter the Fantasy Volleyball Game if matches haven’t started. For standings, you can find that at the 2024 Fantasy VB Page. (Since it may not be clear, my team is “D3VbWest Stinks!”)

Ricky did regional polls on his site if you want to jump on over and scroll down a bit.

Last bit of book keeping (I think). At the bottom of this page are the NPI differences between teams playing today. Includes the probability of the higher NPI team winning. Enjoy!

Made it to the gym. Emory has really nice facilities. Yikes. The Emory staff has a nice area for me. I’m not going to be on the scorer’s table so kind of happy about that! I got to see the great Coach Kati (Whitworth) again and meet in person one of my favorites in Coach Caitlyn (Berry). It’s nice meeting the coaches that have been so nice over the years via email and messaging.

Well, the NCAA Scoreboard is overloaded. Matches haven’t yet started!

Whitworth has travelled well. Berry out in force, too.

So, here at Emory, the referee blew the whistle too early. Before Whitworth was announced. Funny. At the end of the introductions, Claire Hamer (#11 Whitworth) motions to the referee that he can blow the whistle for real. Very funny. Here we go!

First timeout goes to Berry. Down 11-7. Whitworth is making a point of finding Lura Underwood on their serves but she’s doing well. Berry hasn’t really focused on anyone. Amblessed Okemgbo has received the most so far. Both teams are getting hands on a lot of balls.

Taylor Miche is short. Ella Jimenez is tall. Love when they are next to each other back row. Then I realize the difference in their height is less than me and my (hot) wife. Setter Lindsey MacDiarmid with a great kill on the second ball. Whitworth blockers can’t sleep on that.

Both of Jimenez’ s kills have been cross court. Whitworth’s defense is really holding up well against Berry so far. I was curious about that. Service receive for both teams has been pretty good.

Second timeout for Berry. Down 18-14. Not much different between these two teams. The margin comes down to an ace and two blocks for Whitworth.

Berry using two liberos. #2 to receive serve. #19 for defense. Although #2 serves. Interesting.

25-19 Whitworth. Berry could never close that gap. 14 Points/Set for Berry. 19 for Whitworth. Berry will need to get better.

La Verne is struggling in the first set it appears. Messiah is a good team and a tough first round opponent. Middlebury destroyed Salisbury in the first set. Upset watch. La Verne wins the first set 25-23. Mya Ray doing Mya Ray things.

Berry just lobbed over Taylor Miche. Kind of rude.

First timeout of the second set goes to Whitworth. Down 16-13. They are hitting negative but within 3 points. Berry’s defense has stepped up a bit but Whitworth having some success in the serving game.

Whitworth just had a ton of swings before finally finding the floor.

20-19 with a timeout by Berry. Whitworth has Jimenez against MacDiarmid here but aren’t really favoring that matchup. Whitworth eliminates their hitting errors they should take this set.

Well. Never mind. Berry win it 25-20. That was not pretty by the Pirates. Bella Boston (Berry) having a great match so far.

La Verne is a close one with Messiah again. Wow. Salisbury won their second set. Tied 1-1 there. La Verne got the second set win. Oshkosh looks like they will finish first. Quick sweep incoming.

This match has changed. Berry is rolling. Or is it rowing? (A Berry thing.) Whoops. Timeout Whitworth with Berry leading 8-2. Multiple points have Berry’s defense just picking up balls until Whitworth makes an error. Whitworth hitting negative.

Got to say hello to the Trinity staff. Marisa Amarino has moved on from setting to being an assistant. The Julie Jenkins coaching tree continues to sprout branches.

Whitworth has closed the gap but they need an answer for Boston.

16-15 Berry but they call a timeout. Whitworth starting to find the floor but a number of points are a struggle for both teams. Middlebury up 2-1. Oshkosh is looking to each lunch. They got that sweep.

Save of the day goes to Berry’s Blakely Barnes. A ball hit their camera and she raced over before it hit the ground. Put her in coach! (Do all of the Berry players have BB initials?)

Berry timeout. Whitworth leading 23-21. Outside of Boston, no one is really going great. Lots of defense. Lots of swings. Whomever makes the fewer errors here will take this important set.

Berry’s libero (19) Kate Whittle is going to hurt someone with her celebrations! I do not want to meet her. She scares me.

Nice serve by Underwood and it’s all tied 24-24.

In system for Whitworth but Jimenez blocked. Great defense by Berry on set point but Whitworth gets it down. 25-25. Boston gets set point two. She should be getting every ball right now.

Whitworth 12 (Megan Lange) with a set saving dig. Wow. 27-26 with Berry leading but Boston backrow.

Another set point and Berry finishes it this time. 29-27. Up 2-1. Upset watch!

La Verne with the “easy” sweep. (joke) Middlebury with our first upset. Beat Salisbury 3-1. Those Salisbury players in our Fantasy game are out. Smith with the sweep over Endicott. Their magical season continues. And still no shirt. Gallaudet took set 3 to avoid the sweep. UWP took their first set. That match started later than the rest.

Fourth set is a carbon copy of the last two so far. Whitworth struggling to find the floor. Hitting negative. Call a timeout down 10-6. 5 kills for Berry to just 1 for Whitworth.

Just an interesting match. It feels like both teams are not really hitting very hard right now. There have been a number of blocks and balls off hands. Boston is the exception.

Berry uses their last timeout at 16-11. I think they can come back but they have to start swinging and hitting their angles. I think the Berry defense has frustrated them a bit.

CWRU just dropped set four. They are going to a fifth against Dubuque.

Berry with a timeout leading 20-16. Whitworth with some life but running out of time. Looks like I’ll be in the post game press conference. Comment if you have a question you want answered.

Berry gets the win. We are going to have some upsets today. I was worried about this one. Great season for Whitworth.

Well. No press conference for me after all. Whew. Whitworth declined theirs. I didn’t know that was a thing. Dubuque with the upset in 5-sets over CWRU. Wow! The UAA overrated? Half of the 6 3/6 matches went to the 6-seed.

Just want to say that the Emory staff has been very nice here. Good setup with food and stuff. Thursday’s are the worst as far as time management. Again, thank you.

That break in the action was due to CMS Coach Kurt Vlasich. I was giving him all of my Transy knowledge. (joke) In this Trinity/Southern Va. match, Trinity is just all over them. I don’t think this one is going long.

Trinity wins set one 25-13. We have a lot of #2 seeds playing and all seem to be doing fine. The exception is Cornell beating Millikin right now. Chicago is up 1-0 on Centre in the only 4/5 match going on right now.

Timeout Southern VA. as they trail 9-3. They have 8 kills to Trinity’s 20 right now across both sets.

Ithaca up 2-0. Gettysburg up 2-0. Colby drops the second set and are tied 1-1. Millikin was able to win that first set but it was close.

4 straight points cause Trinity to call a timeout. They lead 14-10.

Trinity parents making noise. I wonder if they get that in the USA South? Not a huge following for the Knights. Not much to get excited about so far.

21-14 Trinity. Just too efficient. They are hitting 0.311. Knights are hitting 0.171, which isn’t bad against a team like this.

25-21 Trinity. Strange set. Southern Va. played reasonably well. They hit 0.200 for the set. Trinity just has too many options although they really aren’t connecting as well as I’ve seen them in the past. That was the set for the Knights to have taken I feel.

Chicago up 2-1 as Centre took their second set. Gettysburg got the easy sweep; 12, 14 and 13.

Well, Trinity gets the sweep but it wasn’t easy. All credit to the Knights as they drop the third 25-23. They hit 0.171 for the match and only had 12 attacking errors against a good blocking team. They struggled with the Trinity serve and Trinity really just had to out wait them at times to earn the point with their eventual kill. The third set was the only one of the three with lead changes (there were 4). Trinity will meet Berry tomorrow.

Colby is still playing. Up 2-1 on Dartmouth. Centre was the last team into the tournament but their run is now over. Dropping a 3-1 match to Chicago. UAA is fine, I guess. Both Millikin and WashU are up 2-0.

Okay. I need a Fantasy Volleyball rules clarification. I was able to stop Dede Carranza and tell her that I had her in fantasy and needed lots of digs today. I also told her to cut in front of Georgia McGovern and get as many assists, too. Fair play? I think my fellow Dede teams agree with me.

It looks like CMS will have the smallest crowd here at Emory. Long flight on late notice is tough to do. Transy has a good crowd. They have pom-poms and even suckers. Although no one offered me a sucker.

I’m able to enter in the stats so the teams get populated but I probably can’t get to the sorting until later tonight. We do have some outstanding fantasy performers.

Here come a number of 4/5 matches. These are usually the best and I’ve got a good one between CMS and Transy.

We may have more CMS flags here than fans.

CMS comes out with a setter Georgia McGovern kill. It’s a tough play to stop. Dede got a dig, too.

CMS with a quick 6-0 run to start the set. Timeout Transy. They just need to calm down a bit. Making errors I haven’t seen too often from them before.

It was an 11-0 start for CMS. Georgia McGovern on the line serving tough. And, I got my sucker! Transylvania grandma for the win!

Isabella Myers can bring the heat. Right side for Transy. Beautiful swing.

Second timeout for Transy. Down 18-8. They are having some service receive problems but can put the ball down. They also have 7 attack errors, which is a problem. CMS with no attack errors and they will not lose doing that.

23-9 after one full rotation. McGovern back to serve and another ace.

Cate Scheper had a rough start but is a hard hitter, too. Love the power on this Transy team. CMS did get the set 25-11. They hit 0.435 with no attacking errors, 4 aces and 3 blocks. Transy will need to get a better block up and get some hands on these balls CMS is putting in play.

Brooke McKee (CMS) is saying who is Mya Ray? 8 kills out of 12 attempts so far. No errors and bombs out of the back row.

CMS 9-7 after one full rotation so a much better/closer set.

CMS Coach Vlasich just scammed an out-of-rotation call against Transy. He spotted something and alerted the down ref and then it happened.

15-11 CMS and we have a Transy timeout. CMS hitting over 0.400 with only one error (their first of the match). Transy is good to be close but they have to slow down the CMS offense.

Add Kayden Holcomb to the Transy Bomb Squad.

Transy 18-17 and CMS calls a timeout. Transy has matched CMS statistically in this set and has more aces. That’s the difference. Both teams playing elite right now.

Big touch call at 20-19 Transy. Went CMS way. Followed by an ace.

23-21 CMS. They have started pushing the middle attack with success. Both teams hitting above 0.300 this set.

Three straight for Transy. They have set point.

CMS is getting killed (literally) back left corner. They need to shift over or adjust the block. It’s a primary reason they dropped the second set. 27-25 Transy. All tied 1-1.

IWU looking to upset F&M. Up 1-0 with a big lead in the second. ETBU up 2-0.

Down ref in this match has called a ton of net calls. No one is complaining.

Transy has found a new gear and CMS can’t match it right now. Transy defense has gotten better as we’ve gone along.

Transy hitting 0.440 this set. Up 14-9. Timeout CMS. CMS hitting 0.326 for the match but could be in trouble here.

15-13 Transy and CMS is in the net big time. No call. After the CMS point, the down ref explained it was by the player’s elbow as she turned away from the action. So, I guess he ruled it wasn’t part of the play? I have to respectfully disagree. 16-15 Transy and they call a timeout. (Oh, on the same rally, the up referee missed a backrow attack by the Transy setter, so…)

Great set here. CMS ties it at 20 and Transy calls a timeout. CMS has been able to close but then Transy pulls away again. This set three is to 5 now. Winner takes a big lead.

24-22 Transy. They did it again. Final timeout for either team. 19 kills for Transy in this set and now CMS has to figure out how to slow them down.

28-26 Transy. One blowout set by CMS and two extras by Transy. Will we have 3 or 4 Region X teams advance? ETBU gets the sweep. IWU swept F&M in a 6 over 3-seed match. Another 3-seed goes down today.

Fourth set underway. 6-1 CMS start and a Transy timeout. Shades of set one but today’s Transy isn’t like set one Transy.

Transy giving a ton of line for the CMS outside when setter Grace Ward is on the front. They hit that space once and then missed the second time.

14-6 CMS in the fourth. Still a ton of line available even when Ward went backrow. Maybe Transy feels CMS outsides are more effective hitting cross?

25-20 CMS. Transy just could never make up the ground lost in the first 7 points. We are going to a fifth set. Springfield/VWU also going to a fifth. The fun happens with the 4/5 matches.

Oh, Dede Carranza broke her school records for digs in this match. She needed 1. I told her before the game she needed 27.

Transy earns the turn at 8-7. No big lead to start for CMS. Advantage Transy.

Kayden Holcomb has been putting dents in the floor tonight.

13-11 CMS.

14-13. Giddyup.

CMS 15-13. What a match. Schepper and Myers with 20 kills each. Brooke McKee with 27 kills. 32 digs for Carranza and 60 assists for McGovern. Very efficient match for all of the CMS hitters.

VWU won their 5-setter against Springfield. I’m surprised UW-Eau Claire had an easy time over Northwestern.

Alright, spent a few minutes walking around this facility. It has like 4 floors. Elevator, stairs or rock wall will get you where you need. More rock walls than stairs it looks like. I will say seeing that CMS/Transy match in person was worth missing the other 28 matches on the stream. Fun stuff. Hard loss for Transy as that effort beats most teams on most nights.

UWSP takes down Otterbein in another 4/5 5-setter.

The last matches of the day have started. Marietta in a dogfight with St John Fisher. William Paterson leading CNU, too. Will all of the hosts lose tonight? You saw it here first.

St John Fisher takes set one. Per our NPI projections, they have a 1% chance at winning this match. William Paterson is up on CNU 1-0. They have a 19% chance.

Don’t really have a big turnout from Emory in this one. Covenant is well represented. Love that there are like 6 Covenant fans standing in the front row of the stands.

In our fantasy game, there were only two #1 seeds that didn’t have a player selected. Emory and Oshkosh were those teams.

9-9 and we have a timeout from Emory. Who had that on their bingo card.

Immediately after the timeout, Covenant serves into the net. The Emory coaches start doing a little congratulation dance as I think they were celebrating that they caused that.

15-11, timeout Covenant. Emory leads. Neither team hitting well. Waiting for volleyball to kick in.

25-21 Emory. 17 Point/Set there for Emory so good but not great. Just 13 Points/Set for Covenant so kind of fortunate it was so close. Emory making errors right now.

Second set starts off 12-6 Emory. Emory hitting 0.500 so they seem to have figured out their error issue.

Marietta and CNU both won their second sets so all is right in the world again. JHU won their two sets 9 and 9. Let’s see if Bridgewater can get double-digits in the third. MIT with two easy set wins, too.

Emory 25-17 and they go up 2-0. A 19 Points/Set effort there so better.

They had two referee teams here at Emory. I thought that was a little strange but no big deal. What’s really strange is that as the referees not working this last match come out they are all dressed in suits. Is that a region thing?

10-4 Emory. They are efficiently killing Covenant right now. Nothing special. Just not making errors.

Both Madison Cail and Kate LaRocco are at double-digit kills with no errors.

JHU gave up 12 points in their set three win. No sprinkles tonight.

4 point run by Covenant causes an Emory timeout.

Emory with the win as DS Caroline Coyle gets the kill. Bench goes crazy more for the kill than the win, I think.

I will be wrapping up here, getting something to eat and heading back to the hotel for website cleanup. Use the links. I don’t think the high seeds are in trouble in these late matches.

Alright, back at the hotel. It appears all of the #1s survived as did the #2s. When we get to the 3s, we have an issue. They went 4-4 overall today. The #4s did better going 6-2. So, just 6 upsets today. Per NPI, Whitworth’s loss to Berry was the biggest.

I watched virtual none of the matches outside of Emory. I did catch the end of the Stevens Point win. My quick thoughts on my four matches as I have other work to do on the site…I thought Whitworth looked great in set one and then a switched turned off. They looked totally different. Was it the Berry defense? In the end, it felt like Boston from Berry was the difference maker but I think Whitworth could have won that if their hitting was better. It just felt like the power left them today. It was strange. Trinity was pressed a little by Southern Va. but I never felt like they were in trouble. I give credit to the Knights for having some success but Trinity was just too much to overcome. I don’t think Trinity played their best but I think they will tomorrow in a match they should win. The CMS/Transy match was the best of the day. Don’t read more into this then I mean but these were the two best teams today at Emory. Both played exceptionally well. Transy was hurt by early lapses in two sets that they never overcame. The fifth was just a coinflip with the Athenas side coming up at the end. I think both of these teams, against anyone else today at Emory, would have won. Of course, butterfly effect and you start pressing Trinity and Emory and they are going to raise their game. In a vacuum (only for today) they both were the two best teams. In the final match of the night, give credit for Covenant for keeping it close but like the Trinity match I never felt like Emory was going to lose this. For Southern Va. or Covenant to win these types of matches they need to be gifted a significant amount of points and these teams aren’t going to do that over 5-sets.

Off to other things!

For Video and Live Stats, Check the links connected to the Regional name. It appears the NCAA is streaming all of the matches from the interactive bracket. That link is at the top of the table below.

Random Thoughts: Alright! I made it to Emory. I will be here for both Thursday and Friday’s matches. Saturday is up in the air right now. I’d love to watch the finals and take the late flight out but the timing isn’t great. I really need that Saturday final to go off an hour or two early. If a Region X team or teams make that final, I could be facing some difficult decisions.

The bad thing about being at a regional is that you really can’t watch the other matches. Just Live Stats for me, I guess. Sounds like Emory will set me up at the scorer’s table so look for the only guy at that table yelling at the referees.

I tried to explain the links above but I’ll try again here. It looks like the NCAA is streaming all of the matches. Some of the sites might stream their (host) match on their streaming platform, too. Six of the sites had a tournament portal. I didn’t see one for Juniata. Chris Newport’s link just goes to the schedule but they list out all of the matches there so it’s better than nothing. Worst case, I think you can go to the interactive bracket and just select the match you want to see. Happy hunting! (Ricky found Juniata’s portal so that has now been added.)

As for the matches, may the best teams win. Most of the 1-seeds will win their regional. The one’s at risk are the one’s traveling (Oshkosh and W&L). I feel with their tournament loss, there could be a perception that MIT is shaky. Don’t buy into it. With Emory having three Region X teams, I’m sure there is a perception from the West that they can take that regional. Ugh. Emory is just so good, guys. I really think Juniata and Johns Hopkins are the two locks to make the Elite 8. I normally would have Hope but I really like Millikin, too.

As for the Region X teams, ETBU was here last year but they don’t have that chip on their shoulder. Maybe a slow start against Allegheny but a 3- or 4-set win here. I think Trinity has enough experience to sweep Southern Va. Plus they are the better team. Tough match for La Verne against Messiah. They are a good team. I think ULV takes this in 4-sets. I really hate the Whitworth matchup with Berry. Berry is experienced with an outstanding setter and on the upswing. Whitworth’s last appearance was 2021 so the seniors have seen action (against Hope no less). I think this goes 5-sets and I don’t know which way it ends. CMS also has a ton of experience and go against a team like Berry in a lot of ways. I think CMS figures this one out but it will be tough. This will go 4 or 5-sets. By seeds, all five of the Region X teams will win. I won’t be surprised if only 3 are 4 do. The matchups are just that even in some cases. But, today (Wednesday) we can dream. We can dream of three Region X teams making the Elite 8.

Here we have another gift from the Latvians. This chart is sorted by Regional and shows the NPI difference between teams playing today. Based on that difference, the Latvians gave us a probability that the higher NPI team will win. (Probability based on regular season results.) All of the 1-seeds are 100%. Marietta is next up at 99%. I find it interesting that Whitworth is 96% and that match worries me. The closest match is Stevens/Gallaudet. For a point of reference, our largest upset in the regular season was 12.219 Points (Marymount over Chris Newport). Fun fact, Chris Newport was responsible for 5 upsets this year. One on the positive side (W&L) and four on the negative side.