Regional Rankings II (2023)

Round II of the Regional Rankings have dropped so let me take a look at Region X in depth and then skip around the other nine regions.

I did my predictions yesterday for Region X and was confident about one team in the correct position. As it turned out, my double reverse psychology ploy worked and I ended up with the first six correct. Please check out my logic for those selections in my predictions post as I don’t want to rehash that here. Where I missed was on the 7^th team although I did mention that Whittier could be the choice over Texas Lutheran. Why did I back off where the RAC didn’t? Before I answer, here are the official regional rankings for Region X:

1. Trinity

2. CMS

3. La Verne

4. East Texas Baptist

5. Colorado College

6. Pomona-Pitzer

7. Whittier

Whittier made it in over Texas Lutheran so why was that? TLU has a better record and the Strength of Schedule (SOS) number for both teams (the numbers I used) is a statistical tie. Whittier had a slightly better common opponent record and in Ranked Results, Whittier has a win over CMS that is better than TLU’s two wins over Colorado College. To me the margin was close and I was interested to see how the RAC would deal with it. As it turned out, my SOS number was wrong for TLU and it was much lower so Whittier wins that comparison, too. I think from what I’ve seen of both teams, TLU is better but the criteria says it’s Whittier and that’s what the RAC must go with. I double checked the real SOS numbers and they are 0.562 to 0.539 in favor of Whittier. Mystery solved! I am the problem (again).

Another area I was interested about was who would take the first position. Logically, it should be CMS as they have a head-to-head win over Trinity and have a better SOS. The criteria said Trinity, however, and that is what I (and the RAC) went with.

I was also interested in the ordering of the teams 4 through 6. Those teams were really close and I said that the secondary criterion of non-conference SOS may decide it. I don’t have that number but decided to take ETBU over Colorado College and Pomona-Pitzer based, partly, on the RPI numbers of the teams. That’s not a selection criterion but I think the RACs use that data when things are close/tied. So, not sure how the RAC got to their decision but we did match.

Overall, in Region X, not a lot to worry about. The first team that will go for an at-large bid, assuming Trinity wins the SCAC, will be either CMS or La Verne assuming the other wins the SCIAC. I don’t think either has a lot to worry about. That makes position four the important one and for now that belongs to ETBU. Will they sit there during the entire selection process and not get the nod or will they get a bid? That’s probably a question for another day.

Looking at other regions and starting with Region I, we find that Plymouth State was replaced by Bowdoin. I thought that Bowdoin should have been there last week so no surprise that it finally happened. Wesleyan gets the top spot, which also isn’t a surprise. Middlebury getting the number 2 spot is intriguing. I had an article a number of weeks back about how Middlebury was looking like the typical New England team that doesn’t play anyone but figures out how to manipulate Region I and II to get a good SOS and Ranked Record. Can’t fault them for playing the selection game. (Wait. Yes, I can. Travel and prove yourself for once!)

In Region II, the same seven appear this week. There was some question as to whether Springfield or MIT would get the top spot and it went to MIT despite losing to Springfield at home.

In Region III, the same seven appear and that’s all I want to say about this region.

In Region IV, Montclair State replaces Lebanon Valley. I don’t think I agreed with Lebanon Valley but I’m not sure I identified Montclair State as a possible replacement.

In Region V, I’m a little surprised the seven stayed. I had thought Franklin & Marshall (and even Eastern) might be at risk. I thought Muhlenberg might come in. (I should point out that a week’s worth of matches have occurred since the last time I looked and these things do change.)

In Region VI, I was pretty sure that Centre would be dropped but the same seven are there. Their Ranked Record is 0-6 but they do have a good record and good SOS.

In Region VII, Case Western Reserve comes in for Albion. That was one of the changes I predicted but it should be pointed out that Mount Union is also in this region and still unranked.

In Region VIII, the same seven remain.

In Region IX, Coe was removed and replaced by St Olaf, which I predicted. I thought (last week) that Dubuque should be dropped if Coe goes and Olaf comes in because Augsburg and that time was better per the criteria. That didn’t happen.

The next rankings to come out will be next week (November 8^th) and will have some say in the overall at-large selections. The fourth set of rankings, which aren’t published until after selection day, are the one’s that are used but any team ranked in next week’s rankings will be considered a ranked team on selection day.

It’s a little surprising how static the rankings were for most regions after adding in Ranked Results. Not sure what to make of that but it probably means next week’s rankings will be pretty static, too.