Regional Ranking Predictions

How about those Rangers!!!!! So happy we could add runs on at the end because our bullpen is a mess. Our as our local beat writer tweets (and this is from him) #bullpenisamess. 

As luck would have it, I’m a little sick right now but it’s only a cold and I’m well enough to type so I thought it might be interesting to do a Regional Ranking article where I try to predict the 10 regions prior to tomorrow. Remember that the first rankings do not consider Ranked Results so they will not be part of this effort. “Ned” has sent his QWI data to me and I’ll be using what he has for Strength of Schedule (SOS). I will also list the teams QWI thinks will be in the tournament at the bottom. His selections are based off his QWI number. My process for this will be to look at the QWI regional rankings and then see where there may be some changes due to Head-to-Head (H2H) and Common Opponent (CO). One immediate problem I ran into is that “Ned” limits the teams he compares and a lot of the New England teams aren’t ranked high enough to appear. For instance, I would have liked to look at Trinity College but that wasn’t included in his Compare Sheet. I actually kind of like this, because if I get something wrong then it will all be “Ned’s” fault.

QWI Region I Rankings (Record %/SOS)

1. Tufts (0.550/.608)

2. Wesleyan (0.944/0.548)

3. Middlebury (0.684/0.632)

4. Colby (0.727/0.577)

5. Williams (0.600/0.600)

6. Plymouth State (0.895/0.519)

7. Eastern Nazarene (0.913/0.482)

I also looked at Bowdoin (0.556/0.571).

Immediately, I can see that Bowdoin ties both Plymouth State and Eastern Nazarene (no H2H or CO advantages) so we’ll be able to tell if this RAC favors Record or SOS. In the past, SOS was king and if that holds up then Bowdoin will be ranked. I’m trying hard not to rank these teams as I look at the data because I can see that Tufts has no business being ranked first. Colby, Eastern Nazarene, Middlebury, Wesleyan and Williams should all be ranked higher. Eastern Nazarene has Record and CO advantages while Tufts only has SOS.

Back to Trinity College (0.684/0.557) and I think they will be ranked, too. Again, will SOS rule the day in this RAC? Trinity College has beaten Colby, Williams and Bowdoin. I am not going to figure out CO because that would take too much effort without “Ned’s” help. With that bit of information, I think Eastern Nazarene (who ranks ahead of Tufts) will not be ranked. Their SOS is poor and they haven’t played any of the ranked teams. No reason to reward them, but this will also give us some insight into the RAC’s thinking. Here are the predicted Region I Teams (alphabetical):

Bowdoin Colby Middlebury Trinity College Tufts Wesleyan Williams

Wesleyan, to me, is the clearcut number one based on that record and having H2H and CO advantages over most of the other ranked schools.

QWI Region II Rankings (Record %/SOS)

1. MIT (0.889/0.560)

2. Springfield (0.875/0.576)

3. Emerson (0.600/0.642)

4. Babson (0.833/0.565)

5. Coast Guard (0.682/0.548)

6. Brandeis (0.400/0.615)

7. Endicott (0.429/0.609)

Looking at all of the teams in this region, we run into the same problem as in Region I in that not all of them are in the Compare sheet. I think Wentworth (0.773/0.514) has a chance to be ranked so I want to look at them, too (not in Compare sheet). Smith (0.625/0.541) might also have a chance. Clark has an outside shot with their recent win over Babson but I don’t think it will be enough and this exercise is already taking to long.  

Looking at the data while factoring in H2H and CO and Brandeis only has a clear advantage over Coast Guard. They tie a few teams and do have a good SOS but that Record is a problem. Coast Guard has an advantage over Emerson and Smith. Emerson looks to only have an advantage over Endicott and Brandeis. Endicott has an advantage over Brandeis and tie Smith. They also lost to Wentworth. I think Brandeis will be left off despite the good SOS. The other team to be left off will either be Endicott or Wentworth. Since it comes down to those two and Wentworth has the advantage then I’ll keep Wentworth. I don’t like giving up on two teams with good SOS but those Records just don’t play in this game. Here are my predicted Region II teams:

Babson Coast Guard Emerson MIT Smith Springfield Wentworth

Springfield, to me, looks like the top team in this region.

QWI Region III Rankings (Record %/SOS)

1. Ithaca (0.826/0.579)

2. Cortland (0.857/0.564)

3. Rochester (0.619/0.577)

4. St John Fisher (0.652/0.504)

5. William Smith (0.600/0.553)

6. New Paltz (0.739/0.527)

7. Clarkson (0.600/0.505)

This group is a bit of a mess with those low SOS numbers. I’m just going to keep them as is and say these will be the 7 teams from this region. Vassar has a really outside chance at being ranked but despite some good wins they tend to lose out on both Record and SOS.

QWI Region IV Rankings (Record %/SOS)

1. NYU (0.833/0.641)

2. Stevens (0.682/0.589)

3. Kean (0.609/0.598)

4. Ramapo (0.947/0.519)

5. Gallaudet (0.889/0.444)

6. William Paterson (0.826/0.489)

7. Stockton (0.667/0.548)

These will be your seven in some order. None of the other teams in the region have beaten these teams (outside of Misericordia) and their SOS numbers are extremely low.

QWI Region V Rankings (Record %/SOS)

1. Juniata (1.000/0.563)

2. Johns Hopkins (0.857/0.583)

3. Salisbury (0.714/0.625)

4. Eastern (0.842/0.556)

5. Gettysburg (0.818/0.588)

6. Franklin & Marshall (0.737/0.579)

7. Swarthmore (0.632/0.580)

I think we also need to look at Muhlenberg (0.600/0.580), Stevenson (0.750/0.591) and Marymount (0.500/0.635). Muhlenberg looks like a non-starter as they lose the H2H and/or CO comparisons to almost everyone. Marymount is the exception (they tie) but they only have an advantage over Gettysburg (SOS and CO versus Record). Swarthmore also struggles in the H2H and CO comparisons so I think the easy thing to do is take those three teams out. Here is my predicted teams for this region:

Eastern Franklin & Marshall Gettysburg Johns Hopkins Juniata Salisbury Stevenson

Juniata is the clear top team in this region followed by Johns Hopkins.

QWI Region VI Rankings (Record %/SOS)

1. Emory (0.941/0.634)

2. Berry (0.818/0.596)

3. Chris Newport (0.720/0.625)

4. Mary Washington (0.913/0.580)

5. Covenant (0.960/0.492)

6. Virginia Wesleyan (0.852/0.565)

7. Centre (0.696/0.581)

That’s actually a pretty good list of teams although look at that Covenant SOS. Always schedule tough coaches. You never know when your team will exceed your expectations. The only team to add to this list is Washington & Lee (0.636/0.570). Randolph-Macon or Bridgewater might find there way into the first ranking but I don’t think so. The thing about Covenant is that they win the Record comparison and lose the SOS comparison to everyone. So, it comes down to H2H and CO. I will be interested in how many CO they have played. Here are the teams I predict will be ranked:

Berry Centre Chris Newport Covenant Emory Mary Washington Virginia Wesleyan

Washington & Lee won’t make the cut. They just don’t have the H2H and CO advantages they need over these other teams. Covenant has some advantages over a few teams so they are gold. Nationally, that SOS would be an issue but I don’t think they will need an at-large bid (should get the Pool B bid). This region is interesting because it’s split in two. You have the East Coast side and the Southern side. Sort of a mini-Region X.

QWI Region VII Rankings (Record %/SOS)

1. Hope (0.952/0.562)

2. Calvin (0.818/0.584)

3. Otterbein (0.720/0.584)

4. Ohio Wesleyan (0.826/0.551)

5. Ohio Northern (0.667/0.606)

6. Carnegie Mellon (0.682/0.633)

7. Mount Union (0.739/0.556)

Albion (0.600/0.595) could sneak into this group as could Case Western Reserve (0.708/0.566). Marietta is another interesting team but I’ll leave them out this week.  

Factoring in H2H and CO, Mount Union struggles. They tie Carnegie Mellon and CWRU but that’s it. Albion ties CWRU and that’s really the story of the last spot as I think the first six above will be ranked. I will say the “O” schools above do quite well for themselves when factoring in the four criteria. I think since Albion beats Mount Union and CWRU ties both teams that I would lean Albion here. Here are the predicted teams for this region:

Albion Calvin Carnegie Mellon Hope Ohio Northern Ohio Wesleyan Otterbein

Hope is the obvious top team from this region.

QWI Region VIII Rankings (Record %/SOS)

1. UW-Oshkosh (1.000/0.627)

2. UW-Whitewater (0.913/0.656)

3. WashU (0.720/0.655)

4. UW-Stevens Point (0.760/0.633)

5. North Park (0.760/0.631)

6. UW-Platteville (0.760/0.587)

7. Transylvania (0.792/0.619)

This is going to be a tough region to rank. We will also need to add Millikin (0.731/0.616), Mt St Joseph (0.947/0.541), Carthage (0.560/0.633), UW-Eau Claire (0.545/0.620), UW-River Falls (0.680/0.590) and Augustana (0.773/0.538). If Chicago can run off 5 or so wins the rest of the way and get close to 0.500 they might even have a chance for an at-large bid (won’t be ranked).

Augustana doesn’t have a H2H or CO advantage over the seven teams QWI likes so they are gone. Neither does Carthage so gone. Millikin, who I really like, also doesn’t have an advantage over the starting seven. Gone. Mt St Joseph does much better. They beat North Park (have H2H), UW-Platteville and handily take care of UWSP so they will be in the rankings once we figure out who leaves. UW-Eau Claire ties UWP but that is about it. So they are gone. River Falls also struggles so good bye. That brings us to eight without finishing all of my behind the scenes work I’m doing. I figure it comes down to UWSP, North Park or UWP and they each have the same Record. They pretty much all tie the H2H/CO comparisons so I think the one with the worst SOS goes and that is UWP. Here are the predicted teams from this region:

Mt St Joseph North Park Transylvania UW-Oshkosh UW-Stevens Point UW-Whitewater WashU

Oshkosh is the leader here but we could see a number of unpublished teams get an at-large bid out of this region.

QWI Region IX Rankings (Record %/SOS)

1. Northwestern (0.875/0.571)

2. Cornell (0.727/0.569)

3. Gust Adolphus (0.769/0.549)

4. St Ben (0.714/0.586)

5. St Olaf (0.652/0.542)

6. St Catherine (0.650/0.571)

7. Coe (0.565/0.584)

I think I’m good with these seven teams. Augsburg could sneak in but I compared them to Coe and they lost handily. There is a bit of a drop off after the 7^th team here.

QWI Region X Rankings (Record %/SOS)

1. Trinity (0.885/0.550)

2. CMS (0.842/0.571)

3. La Verne (0.900/0.513)

4. Puget Sound (0.700/0.512)

5. Texas Lutheran (0.682/0.560)

6. Southwestern (0.429/0.590)

7. Pomona-Pitzer (0.565/0.561)

I swear I am not changing QWI to have Southwestern in the rankings. I am as confused by that as anything else I see in the table. We’ve already seen in past weeks that I don’t agree with this region as ranked by QWI so I’m sure my teams will be tweaked. We have to consider Colorado College (0.583/0.580), UC Santa Cruz (0.423/0.629), East Texas Baptist (0.857/0.518), Pacific Lutheran (0.650/0.538) and Mary Hardin-Baylor (0.955/0.446).

Alright, going alphabetically and starting with CMS, they are an obvious stay. Colorado College is next and they look solid, too. ETBU, La Verne and Trinity hold advantages but that is it. ETBU looks pretty solid so I’m not doing a good job of eliminating teams and two of those weren’t on QWI’s list. La Verne is very solid and going through the teams so far it’s obvious Trinity will be fine. That’s 5 of the 7. Mary Hardin-Baylor is up next and they hold an advantage on Puget Sound, Southwestern and TLU so we’ll keep them in our back pocket. I don’t have to go far to see that PLU will not make the final cut. I can finally eliminate a team. We need to hang on to Pomona-Pitzer as they have advantages over Puget Sound, TLU and UCSC. They tie Southwestern. Puget Sound don’t win many comparisons so they will be cut. For the same reason, we say goodbye to my Pirates. (Really, “Ned” what is going on with this?) That leaves me 9 teams for 7 spots and I haven’t fully gone through everyone. I think I can safely eliminate UCSC as they have only tied Mary Hardin-Baylor to this point from the teams that are left. The obvious cut here is Mary Hardin-Baylor who simply haven’t played anyone but that’s not how this works. I think CMS, Trinity, Colorado College, La Verne and Pomona-Pitzer are safe. Okay, I got kind of sloppy this go-around so I’m starting over with these seven teams and adding back in Puget Sound because they made my list last week.

I’m really glad I don’t have to rank these teams but CMS should be the top team. They have H2H and SOS on Trinity. The bubble teams are UMHB, UPS and TLU and only one spot. As it turns out, Mary Hardin-Baylor beats both of those teams on Record and Common Opponent. They lose on SOS so they will be our 7^th team. It will be very interesting to see if they are regionally ranked due to their very low SOS number. Here is who I believe should be ranked:

CMS Colorado College East Texas Baptist La Verne Mary Hardin-Baylor Pomona-Pitzer Trinity

Having gone through all 10 regions, I think we can say that QWI gets us pretty close. Just a few tweaks here and there. So, with that said, some of you may be interested in who QWI thinks will be in the tournament. Below is his latest projection. You’ll notice that my tweaks upset this list a bit but who’s to say I’m right? (Side note – I half expected “Ned” to have Southwestern listed. *eyeroll*)