Regional Ranking II Predictions

Time for my self-satisfying Region X Regional Ranking predictions. I’m not sure how many other people enjoy this article but I LOVE doing this stuff. I also like comparing what I had versus what the RAC comes up with and see where they or I (usually I) went wrong. I would love to do this for the entire nation but it just becomes too time consuming. As a reminder, regional rankings are determined by the selection criteria. You can find more information about primary and secondary criteria in the Pre-Championship Manual and an article I did on the entire process. Both can be found in the FAQ.

Here were the teams regionally ranked last week by Region X and remember that it didn’t consider Ranked Results and was published alphabetically and not in ranked order (I am going to list the teams in the most likely order):

• CMS

• Trinity

• La Verne

• East Texas Baptist

• Texas Lutheran

• Colorado College

• Pomona-Pitzer

I’m going to use some really confusing nomenclature to make me look smart in this article. The criteria presented to me in my tools is in the order of Head-to-Head, Common Opponent, Record, Strength of Schedule (SOS) and Ranked Results. So, when I list any comparisons, I will list them in this order with the team that won that criterion. In the case of CMS and ETBU, it would look like this: (X/X/E/C/C). (X means tie and the other letters correspond to the school.) This means that there was a tie in Head-to-Head and Common Opponent, ETBU has a better record and CMS has a better SOS and Ranked Result. In this case, CMS would win this comparison. You don’t really have to care that I present that information, but I wanted to show my work. I will also use “?” for Ranked Result when I feel the numbers have to be looked at closer.

Starting with CMS, they win all comparisons with the currently ranked teams except for Trinity. That comparison is C/T/T/C/?. CMS has the head-to-head and SOS advantages, which I would value higher than common opponent and record but no telling if the RAC agrees. The Ranked Record (not Results) is 4-4 for CMS and 6-4 for Trinity. Percentage-wise, Trinity wins Ranked Results, but we didn’t actually look at the teams played, just the record. The losses by CMS are Johns Hopkins, Juniata, WashU and La Verne. Their best win is Trinity and then La Verne. Trinity’s losses are UW-Oshkosh, CMS, Tufts and Colorado College. Their best win is MIT and then TLU. I actually like CMS a little more but they have that unranked loss to Whittier, which really pushes me to Trinity here. So, based on just the criteria, Trinity should be ranked first this week assuming they don’t get tripped up in this next comparison round. One last thing on this comparison. I know the RAC has access to RPI and although there is no directive to use that data, “Ned” has calculated Trinity ahead slightly 0.637 to 0.631. Against Top 100 RPI teams, CMS is 7-4 and Trinity is 6-4. One really last thing on this comparison. You might be saying that CMS has the head-to-head so tie goes to them but that is not what the RAC is supposed to do and I would argue (and have argued) that two teams tied and one has a head-to-head then you should go with the other team because they will be stronger during national selection (that head-to-head is pretty pointless nationally).

Going through the comparisons with Trinity and they don’t get tripped up. Only La Verne and Colorado College even win one criterion while Trinity shuts out the rest. Trinity will get my top ranking and the RAC will go with CMS because RAC Chair Gabby Houston will want to prove that they need to be different from me. (Reverse psychology activated!) (Now, double reverse psychology activated!)

I ran La Verne through the comparisons next and they did fine. They struggle a bit with Pomona-Pitzer (P/L/L/P/L). I could have spent some more time on the Ranked Results but there just isn’t a point of having Pomona-Pitzer ahead of La Verne so why do it? Plus, Pomona-Pitzer will struggle against other teams without that head-to-head. La Verne will be my third team.

Running ETBU next and we have issues. With TLU it’s X/E/E/T/?, with Colorado College it’s X/E/E/C/C and with Pomona-Pitzer, it’s X/E/E/P/?. Looking at Ranked Results, ETBU’s only ranked win is Centre who I think will be removed this week (although that’s not important here). Their two losses are Emory and Covenant. They have one unranked loss to Mary Hardin-Baylor. To me, that’s really bad. TLU is 2-4 with wins over Colorado College twice. Pomona-Pitzer is 3-6 with wins over St John Fisher and La Verne twice. Both Colorado College and Pomona-Pitzer have more ranked losses but it just means they played a tougher schedule and should they be penalized for that here? So, if I give Ranked Results to TLU, Colorado College and Pomona-Pitzer than all three are ties and should go to secondary criteria, which I’ll do in a bit.

I ran TLU through the remaining two teams and with Colorado College it’s T/C/T/C/? and with Pomona-Pitzer it’s X/P/T/X/?. I haven’t mentioned Colorado College’s ranked wins and there are Tufts and Trinity. We’ve got a mess on our hands but let me do the last comparison of Colorado College and Pomona-Pitzer.

In this last comparison, Colorado College wins X/C/C/C/?. Regardless of how Ranked Results comes out, Colorado College is still ahead.

Resetting, we have Trinity, CMS and La Verne in the top three spots. The next four are really a tossup and quite the headache for the RAC. They have to figure this out and, for the most part, it won’t matter because I don’t think those teams will get an at-large bid.

One piece of information that I’m missing is the non-conference SOS, which is a secondary criterion. I do have Last 25% Win/Loss but I’m not sure it’s really used prior to the final rankings. I’m going to look at “Ned’s” RPI numbers (listed below) as a secondary way of judging the strength of a team. I’m also going to make some preliminary decisions. Here they are:

• ETBU has the worst Ranked Results of the teams under consideration. They are 1-2 with a bad ranked win (Centre) in my mind.

• Colorado College wins the comparison against both TLU and Pomona-Pitzer. (TLU does come down to Ranked Results and I like Trinity and Tufts wins over TLU’s wins over Colorado College.)

• Pomona-Pitzer wins the comparison over TLU due to Ranked Results (La Verne twice is better than Colorado College twice).

• ETBU RPI 0.608 and 1-2 against RPI Top 100

• TLU RPI 0.590 and 3-4 against RPI Top 100

• Colorado College RPI 0.595 and 3-9 against RPI Top 100

• Pomona-Pitzer RPI 0.576 and 4-6 against RPI Top 100

(Please note that I’m not looking that hard at the number of ranked losses. The RAC may and they may like ETBU better because they have fewer losses. I look at it that they didn’t play a deserving schedule and won’t penalize a team that does when everything else is equal.)

Jumping around, I’m taking ETBU over TLU because their RPI is higher although they just haven’t played as many tough teams as TLU (or anyone else ranked). I have both Colorado College and Pomona-Pitzer ahead of TLU but both have lower RPIs than ETBU. I really believe non-conference SOS is going to really drive the ordering of these four teams and without that data I can just do the best I can. Here is my first pass at the rankings:

1. Trinity

2. CMS

3. La Verne

4. East Texas Baptist

5. Colorado College

6. Pomona-Pitzer

7. Texas Lutheran

The only position I’m confident about matching the RAC is La Verne. If I was trying to put my most selectable team nationally in that four spot, I’d probably put Colorado College there due to their win over Tufts but they have a number of out-of-region losses that probably make it pointless.

You thought we were done, right? You can admit it. NO! WE. ARE. NOT. DONE!

We need to spot check some of the other teams in the region to see if anyone can break into the rankings. I’ll go down some of the teams from “Ned’s” QWI rankings (remember he loves Southwestern).

• Southwestern has a good SOS and two wins over Pomona-Pitzer and one over TLU. They actually get close to both of those teams but I can pass them over as their ranked wins are currently low in my rankings (listed above).

• Puget Sound is struggling but those two really good out-of-region wins the first weekend of the year still play. They beat both Eastern and St Benedict and have no ranked losses (but 8 unranked losses). Compared with TLU and they lose out easily before even considering Ranked Results. They also are down to Pomona-Pitzer and could tie it with Ranked Results but the Puget Sound RPI is so low that they are out of the running this week.

• UC Santa Cruz has a ranked record of 2-13. Such a tough schedule as shown by their 0.620 SOS. Still, they lose out to both TLU and Pomona-Pitzer.

• Whittier is the only team left in region with more than 1 ranked win. I don’t see them passing Pomona-Pitzer but here is the comparison with TLU:

  • 0.750 Record/0.561 SOS/2-4 Ranked Record

  • 0.565 Record/0.0.569 SOS/2-6 Ranked Record

The first team is TLU and their ranked wins are both against Colorado College. Whittier’s ranked wins are against CMS and St John Fisher. I think CMS gives them the edge and with SOS a statistical tie, these two teams are tied at 1-1 with common opponent to go (there is no head-to-head). In that comparison, Whittier comes out ahead with a 5-3 record to 4-4 for TLU. I think you could make an argument for Whittier to be the 7^th team in our rankings this week. When I look at RPI, however, TLU has a rather large lead. I’m probably leaving TLU in the 7^th spot but it will be interesting to see what our RAC does with it.

The last team I want to look at is Mary Hardin-Baylor. If you’ve been reading my stuff then you know they have a great record but have played no one of note outside of splitting with ETBU. I don’t feel they win the comparison with Pomona-Pitzer but I think they tie with TLU (X/M/M/T/T). TLU’s RPI is better and they 3-4 against the RPI Top 100 while UMHB is 1-1 (both ETBU). For grins, they lose the comparison to Whittier so even if there was a push to have them ranked over TLU, I’d just move Whittier into that spot to shut that noise down.

Just to clear the deck, Pacific Lutheran’s problem is that they have no ranked wins and an average record with an average SOS. Schreiner has a low SOS. Whitworth is basically PLU with a lower SOS. St Thomas is about the same as PLU and Whitworth.

Alright, I think I’ve done enough. I’m sticking with the ranked 7 I have listed above. Only La Verne could be positioned correctly. Whittier is your dark horse. The last four teams could be in any order as could the first two teams.

(Last Note: “Ned’s” files had a couple of issues in them that are being fixed. I think I compensated where I found errors, but I reserve the right to blame any obvious mistake on “Ned” if it’s needed.)