Region X Rankings – Updated

I normally release the Region X Top 8 with my Top 25, but neither the NCAA or “Ned” had SOS numbers I could use so I had to hold off. The NCAA has updated their link so I went ahead and updated my Watch List. The major change to the Watch List was the elimination of a number of teams. Remember, that the Watch List is my opinion of who has a chance at an at-large bid using the selection criteria. The Regional Rankings, which I’m trying to mimic here, are the rankings based on the selection criteria. Usually, this jives with my Watch List but you can make a case it doesn’t this week (more on this later).

NOTE – If Ned sends me his SOS number, I’ll update my Watch List and then update this article with any changes. The SOS numbers have been updated on the Watch List to reflect what Ned has produced.

Here are the rankings with explanations below it:

Region X Rankings (9/28/21) – (previous rank)

1. CMS (1)

2. Trinity (2)

3. Colorado College (3)

4. Southwestern (5)

5. Mary Hardin-Baylor (4)

6. UC Santa Cruz (6)

7. Austin College (7)

8. Whitworth (NR)

Dropped Out: Pomona-Pitzer (8)

CMS is undefeated and has the second-best SOS number of the teams considered. Their head-to-head win over Trinity locks them into the number one spot. (Update – CMS now has the best SOS of the teams under consideration.)

Trinity has the best SOS number and a great record with a head-to-head over Colorado College. An easy number 2 selection. (Update – Trinity has the 2nd best SOS of the teams under consideration.)

Colorado College has a decent SOS, a good record and a head-to-head over Southwestern. They tie the other teams in consideration in these two criteria although they beat Whitworth in both. Their SOS is enough for me to push them into the third spot.

I reversed the ordering of Southwestern and Mary Hardin-Baylor this week. UMHB has a better record but Southwestern has a much better SOS (Update – Still better but the delta is closer now). Same scenario when you consider UC Santa Cruz. I give the nod to SOS, which moves Southwestern into the 4^th spot.

If I used SOS to nudge Southwestern over UMHB then using the same argument, UCSC should be ranked ahead of the Cru. The difference is that the SOS advantage isn’t that large as it is with Southwestern. The RAC could do this differently but I’m putting UMHB in the 5^th spot.

UCSC has a record and SOS (barely) advantage over Austin College. (Update – SOS spread is now larger.) UCSC has a record and common opponent (Pomona-Pitzer) advantage over Whitworth, which is enough for them to get the 6^th spot.

Things get harder now, which you wouldn’t think since I only have 8 teams in my Watch List. The problem is that George Fox and Pomona-Pitzer have some interesting head-to-head wins that mixes things up a bit. Now George Fox has a horrible SOS (0.404) and with their recent losses, they really aren’t a player here. (Update – GFU’s SOS is better, 0.486, but still not enough.) Pomona-Pitzer’s SOS is 0.566, which is better than most but not outstanding. (Update – Pomona-Pitzer’s SOS is now 0.532.) I chose Austin College for the 7^th spot because their record is good and that at least would give them a fighting chance in a national selection battle.

When you compare Whitworth with Pomona-Pitzer, the Pirates win on record. Pomona-Pitzer wins on SOS and have a head-to-head win so why is Whitworth my 8^th selection? Well, Whitworth has a win over George Fox who beat Pomona-Pitzer so common opponent goes to Whitworth and we have a tie. In my opinion, Pomona-Pitzer’s record has no chance in national selection and their SOS isn’t good enough to help so to break this time I go with record. So, to be clear, just because a team doesn’t (today) appear in my Watch List, it doesn’t mean the RAC won’t consider them for the regional rankings.

You can see how there is some opinion into my selection. When do I favor record and when do I favor SOS? In the end, I favor better team to fight a national selection battle and use whatever reasoning I can give. I hope the RAC follows this lead.

(Final Update – The SOS numbers changed for each team. Most went down but several went up. I don’t think it would have changed the ordering. Maybe I would have moved Whitworth ahead of Austin College. What Ned’s SOS does is consider a team’s opponent’s opponent. This is per the NCAA selection criteria. You get a higher number of the team you’ve played has played better teams.)