Region VIII Statistics Loss (2025)

As we approach the end of our statistics loss series, we reach the best overall region in volleyball right now. I give you Region VIII and the CCIW, the Heartland, the Northern Athletics (NACC), the St Louis Intercollegiate (SLIAC) and the Wisconsin Intercollegiate (WIAC). The region also has Chicago and WashU who were covered in the Region VII article as part of the UAA. Finally, there is the independent school, Marantha Baptist.

As a reminder, “statistics loss” or “statistics lost” are the statistics accumulated the previous season by seniors. These are the stats that will be lost to the team in 2025 due to their graduation. I like to look at this data as it gives us an indication as to how the team should fare in the upcoming season. Of course, with any rule or theory, we have caveats. Caveats like some seniors are seniors academically but may have another year of eligibility. This would be a caveat that helps the team. Caveats that hurt the team further are players that leave due to injury or homesickness or financial reasons. These statistics also don’t account for the recruits coming in or that prized DI transfer. This is simply a baseline of where the team is probably going to be without those caveats running amok. From doing this for a number of years, we’ve learned that teams are much better at replacing assists and digs. Where teams can struggle is with Points Lost and getting to 45% or higher is a red flag. Points are kills plus aces plus blocks.

Here are the five conferences we’ll cover in this article with Marantha Baptist at the end. Each table shows not only the Points Lost but also assists and digs lost to graduation. I also include the Points/Set number from last season. Remember that 18+ is elite, 17+ typically gets you into the NCAA Tournament, 16+ is good and then we go down from there. Below the table, I’ll give out some general thoughts but not go specifically into each team. Oh, one item to note is that I’m not moving teams to new conferences in this effort.

CCIW

The CCIW received two bids to the NCAA Tournament last season with Illinois Wesleyan (IWU) taking the conference’s Automatic Qualifier (AQ) and Millikin earning an at-large bid. Interestingly, if Millikin had won the conference title, IWU would have fallen short of the cut-line. Overall, this conference had only one team, Augustana, who fell under the 50 NPI mark. Augustana was (basically) the only team under 15 Points/Set with Carroll coming in just under but really close to that mark. Definitely a strong conference in a strong region. Looking at 2025, and the majority of teams (5) will be above the 45% mark in Points Lost. North Central and Elmhurst also take hits at setter and libero. I’d expect all five to struggle more than they did last season (the other three being Wheaton, North Park and Carthage). That really leaves the door open (again) for IWU and Millikin with IWU returning the most offense, overall. So, a step back for the conference in 2025 but probably two more bids for Millikin and IWU.

Heartland

The Heartland isn’t as strong overall as the CCIW but they do have perennially power in Transylvania who led the conference in Points/Set and NPI earning the conference’s only bid. Anderson, Manchester and Hanover all had good seasons and the conference also sports Mt St Joseph who typically fields a very strong team. Looking at 2025 and only Transy is above the 45% mark. They also lose their 5-1 setter and libero so this conference will be more wide open. On the flip side, there is Mt St Joseph who has to overcome the lose of their 5-1 setter but return most of their offense. They definitely could make a play at the conference’s AQ next season. Anderson might be the favorite but in truth, Transy recruits so well that you really can’t bet against them despite their losses. Throw in Bluffton and Hanover and you really have a fun race in the Heartland. One more note on Mt St Joseph is that they played the toughest schedule of any team in conference last season with an Opponent NPI of 0.555.

NACC

We just did a schedule analysis on St Norbert, which touched on the NACC and the problems it presents in building NPI and getting an at-large bid. True to form, only one team made it to the tournament from this conference (Edgewood). Edgewood led with an NPI of 57.76, played the toughest schedule but were second in Points/Set to Aurora (16.81). From the table, we see that six teams are above the 45% mark and that includes both Edgewood and Aurora. A number of 5-1 setters in this conference and we see a bunch of them graduate along with a few liberos. The main issue is that there are just so many teams that don’t have good offensive numbers so any kind of graduation loss is going to hurt. We do have Marian returning their entire squad so expect good things from them in 2025. I don’t think they can bridge the gap to take the AQ but they will be a tough out. Concordia Wisconsin is probably in better shape as they don’t lose much and start from a higher Points/Set number. Wisconsin Lutheran is interesting as their Points/Set number is pretty good for this conference but their record doesn’t reflect it. They don’t lose much so if they can figure out why their numbers don’t match up, you could see a big jump up from them. Otherwise, St Norbert looks like a team that can compete for the AQ. I also won’t look past both Aurora and Edgewood despite their losses as they are always strong in this conference.

SLIAC

Pour one out for Fontbonne who are closing their doors. They gave me one of the biggest chuckles when they made the NCAA Tournament and played in the CMS Regional a couple of years back. Someone on the streaming side decided that the best acronym to represent them on the score was “FU”. Brilliant. This conference also gives us Principia who had to suspend their season due to a lack of players. Hey, if you want to play volleyball there is a school that will take you. The SLIAC isn’t our best volleyball conference out there but they are actually getting better. Although, it definitely hurts that one your two best programs in FU is closing their doors. Greenville took the AQ last season and also led the conference in NPI at 52.99. FU was the Points/Set leader. Looking towards 2025 and we can switch those FU numbers to 100% across the board. That leaves 3 other schools above the 45% mark with Westminster just outside of it. Greenville looks to be the odds-on favorite again in this conference. Second probably goes to either Lyon or Westminster…whomever can shake their losses better. Maybe I go Webster as a dark horse here.

WIAC

Right behind the UAA is probably the WIAC as the best DIII volleyball conference in the nation. Yes, these are public schools and probably have a bit of an advantage when it comes to a recruitment base but they put out some good volleyball. Whitewater finished second last season giving Juniata all it could handle in the finals and along with Oshkosh finished in the Top 8. That meant two WIAC schools getting protection although Oshkosh’s protection was…interesting. It turned out both made the Elite 8 and five total made the tournament. Every team except for UW-La Crosse had a Points/Set number higher than 15 and an NPI higher than 50. Stout. (A little UW humor for you there.) Going into 2025 and we see three of the top teams above the 45% mark. Whitewater was there last year but shook it off with transfers coming in bolstering their team. So, no telling how these three will shake it off this year. If that doesn’t happen then look to Platteville and Eau Claire (in some order) to lead the line this upcoming season. Both Stout and River Falls also look to be much improved in 2025. I think both of these teams will surprise good programs that thought they were getting an easy mark when putting together their schedule. La Crosse should be better but should still finish at the bottom of this conference. Of the three at the top – Whitewater, Stevens Point and Oshkosh – I’m most concerned with Stevens Point. We’ll know pretty quickly what Oshkosh has as we did a schedule analysis on them and currently, they are playing the toughest schedule we’ve encountered.

Marantha Baptist

That 1-18 record is the bad news while only losing 9.5% of your offense is the good. Still, although they should be better in 2025, they will not be good and will not sniff the at-large cut-line.

Just one more region to go until our look at all of the DIII programs in the nation is over. I’m sure this is a lot to take in but I like getting a more complete picture of our teams. We also get to give a proper send off to FU. Region IX is next!

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