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Region VI Statistics Loss (2025)
Our statistics loss series has reached VI and that means 3 more conferences will get a look. The C2C, which has 3 teams from this region, was handled in their own article awhile back. Emory is also out of this region but will be handled in the UAA section that will come out in Region VII. Finally, the SAA also got a dedicated article due to the fact that both Trinity and Southwestern will move there this season. Below I make the disclaimer that I’m not trying to figure out who moved where but using where they played but that wasn’t the case for the dedicated articles. This makes things a little confusing but I like that because you worry less about my accuracy. The conferences in play today are Collegiate Conference of the South (CCS), Old Dominion (ODAC) and USA South. I’m confident things will settle down when we get to Region XI.
As a reminder, “statistics loss” or “statistics lost” are the statistics accumulated the previous season by seniors. These are the stats that will be lost to the team in 2025 due to their graduation. I like to look at this data as it gives us an indication as to how the team should fare in the upcoming season. Of course, with any rule or theory, we have caveats. Caveats like some seniors are seniors academically but may have another year of eligibility. This would be a caveat that helps the team. Caveats that hurt the team further are players that leave due to injury or homesickness or financial reasons. These statistics also don’t account for the recruits coming in or that prized DI transfer. This is simply a baseline of where the team is probably going to be without those caveats running amok. From doing this for a number of years, we’ve learned that teams are much better at replacing assists and digs. Where teams can struggle is with Points Lost and getting to 45% or higher is a red flag. Points are kills plus aces plus blocks.
Here are the three conferences in Region VI that we’ll cover in this article. Each table shows not only the Points Lost but also assists and digs lost to graduation. I also include the Points/Set number from last season. Remember that 18+ is elite, 17+ typically gets you into the NCAA Tournament, 16+ is good and then we go down from there. Below the table, I’ll give out some general thoughts but not go specifically into each team. Oh, one item to note is that I’m not moving teams to new conferences in this effort.
CCS
The CCS is another one bid conference as Covenant gathered up the Automatic Qualifier (AQ) last season. They led the conference in Points/Set and NPI (52.27). I got to watch this team at the Emory Regional play against the hosts. They put up a good fight losing in three but I was impressed. I also briefly talked to a few players and they knew about the site so they instantly became a favorite of mine. Looking at the graduation losses and we have two teams above the 45% mark in Maryville and Huntingdon. That’s good news for Covenant as Maryville was their primary competition last season. Huntingdon wasn’t too far behind, as well. Piedmont loses their 5-1 setter but retains most of their offense. Covenant looks to be in great shape this season and should build on that Points/Sets number. Belhaven might be the team to challenge Covenant but they were 2 Points/Set behind so they probably will struggle in that attempt. A pair of 1-win teams in Agnes Scott and Wesleyan will return most of their team (Wesleyan looks like they are losing their libero, however). LaGrange finished better and losses less so it will be interesting to see if they can get to double-digit wins this season. Maryville will be leaving for the SAA after this season but independent Asbury comes in to spice things up. Because they were an independent, I would have missed them so let me add them here:
Interesting. They had a higher NPI (54.22) and Points/Set than Covenant and lose less. I guess they may be the team to beat over Covenant although Covenant played a tougher schedule.
ODAC
The ODAC had two bids last season and I’d have to say that NPI helped out Virginia Wesleyan the most with its implementation. The Marlins always seemed to be overlooked with the old selection criteria but they get their respect with NPI as they received an at-large bid in 2024. Washington & Lee was the big story last season as they had a fabulous season finishing in the protected Top 8 and making it to the Elite 8. They led the conference in Points/Set and NPI (68.45). That Points/Set seems a tad low for what they accomplished but they were just a uniquely strange team last season so it fits perfectly. We have three teams in this conference facing the curse of 45% in Roanoke, Randolph and Averett. All should struggle a bit as they also all lose one of their setters. Washington & Lee is under that 45% mark but also take hits in assists and digs. I think they should be fine but I don’t see them challenging for that Top 8 spot again. Both Bridgewater and Virginia Wesleyan look to be in good shape and both were close to W&L in Points/Set so expect some fun in the ODAC this season. Looking at their schedules (Opponent NPI) and Virginia Wesleyan actually played the toughest opponents followed by W&L and then Bridgewater. A dark horse here would be Randolph-Macon who got to 15 Points/Set, are not losing much and whom played the toughest schedule in the conference. Lynchburg certainly can’t be overlooked, either as they reached 16 Points/Set and are in the best shape of any team mentioned in this conference so far. Their schedule was also slightly better than Bridgewater’s. Eastern Mennonite returns the most but have a distance to make up. Ferrum, by the way, has moved to DII but my hope is that we’ll still throw them in the NPI mix every other week just to confuse things. (That was a joke for the NPI nerds out there.)
USA South
The USA South had an exciting conference season in 2024 between Southern Virginia, Salem, Methodist and Greensboro. Methodist was the Points/Set leader while Salem was the NPI leader at 56.06. Southern Virginia played the toughest schedule and, in the end, it was the Knights that took the conference’s AQ. (Brief shout out to the Knights’ men’s volleyball team who took home the DIII Championship!) Graduation loss will hit both William Peace and Southern Virginia the hardest as both are above the 45% mark. Brevard is around 40% so they will struggle a bit, too. After that, every program is between 12% and 30% so expect the same teams gunning for their AQ with maybe Southern Virginia falling back a bit. It should be pointed out that Methodist will be losing their 5-1 setter and libero but history says that shouldn’t matter too much. This was really an NPI rich conference in 2024 as six teams were above 50. Teams hunting quality NPI matches would be wise to look at the USA South as they should be just as good in that area this fall.
Another region done and another region that requires you to look at multiple articles to get the full picture. It will be strange for me with Southwestern moving to a Region VI conference in the SAA. I still don’t understand the logic of it all and life would have been so much simpler in many ways if they had just stayed in the SCAC. Again, my consultant fees are very reasonable for any college presidents or athletic directors that require help.
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