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Region III Statistics Loss (2025)
We are off to Region III in our Latvian induced look at statistics loss around the nation. In this region we have Empire 8 (which has 12 teams), Liberty League, Skyline Conference and SUNYAC. Rochester is in this region but in the UAA. We’ll pick them up when I do Region VII.
As a reminder, “statistics loss” or “statistics lost” are the statistics accumulated the previous season by seniors. These are the stats that will be lost to the team in 2025 due to their graduation. I like to look at this data as it gives us an indication as to how the team should fare in the upcoming season. Of course, with any rule or theory, we have caveats. Caveats like some seniors are seniors academically but may have another year of eligibility. This would be a caveat that helps the team. Caveats that hurt the team further are players that leave due to injury or homesickness or financial reasons. These statistics also don’t account for the recruits coming in or that prized DI transfer. This is simply a baseline of where the team is probably going to be without those caveats running amok. From doing this for a number of years, we’ve learned that teams are much better at replacing assists and digs. Where teams can struggle is with Points Lost and getting to 45% or higher is a red flag. Points are kills plus aces plus blocks.
Here are the four conferences in Region III. Each table shows not only the Points Lost but also assists and digs lost to graduation. I also include the Points/Set number from last season. Remember that 18+ is elite, 17+ typically gets you into the NCAA Tournament, 16+ is good and then we go down from there. Below the table, I’ll give out some general thoughts but not go specifically into each team. Oh, one item to note is that I’m not moving teams to new conferences in this effort.
Empire 8
Liberty League
Skyline
SUNYAC
If the New England Regions didn’t kill me, I’m sure the New York Regions won’t, either. Although the Empire 8 is going to give it a go. The Automatic Qualifier (AQ) from this conference went to St John Fisher who finished second in both Points/Set and NPI to Hartwick. Hartwick had an NPI of 55.60. So, not too bad, right? There is just so much “meh” in this group. A lot of low Points/Set numbers but this isn’t about last season, right? It’s about how these teams look moving forward! Uh oh. Five teams hit the 45% mark in Points Lost and a sixth is at 42%. Not good. We have a number of 5-1 setters out the door, too. Russell Sage looks to be hurting as they also lose their libero and lead this conference in Points Lost. I don’t see them getting close to 0.500 in 2025. It’s good news for St John Fisher, it seems, as their losses are very low while their main competition from last season, Hartwick, takes some offensive hits. Brockport should also make some noise this season along with Alfred. Those actually could be your top 3 teams in some order. Elmira struggled last season and is losing a lot, which doesn’t bode well for that program. Geneseo is typically a good program in this region but struggled last year and could struggle to do better in 2025.
Okay, I see you, Liberty League. I think we can have a good discussion here. The AQ went to William Smith (59.79 NPI) who I think needed the title to make the tournament. (Another loss probably would have knocked them out.) Ithaca picked up an at-large bid with a 63.07 NPI. Five of these nine teams had NPIs greater than 50. Only RIT hits the 45% mark at it appears they also lose their 5-1 setter and libero. They had a good record off of 15.02 Points/Set (not a great number) but I would expect both to go down with those losses. Everyone else seems fine, for the most part. William Smith returns everyone and it will be interesting to see how their Points/Set number ends in relation to Ithaca (who have 35%+ losses in points). You’d have to think William Smith would be the favorite but Ithaca always recruits well so no one will be looking past the Bombers. Union looks like the third team in the conference title mix but everyone will probably improve in this conference outside of RIT.
Is it like a thing in the Skyline when someone says, “Yeshiva”, that someone responds, “Gesundheit”? If I’m saying the school right, it sounds like a sneeze. Well, this conference looks wide open in 2025. Manhattanville is the only program hitting the 45% mark and they took home the AQ last season. I suppose Merchant Marine and Sarah Lawrence would be the new favorites along with Farmingdale State and St Joseph’s. Manhattanville will also still be in the mix because they also do alright in the recruiting wars. Still, there are a lot of low Points/Set in this conference so I don’t expect anyone to really step up here. I always like a conference where the previous champion takes the most losses and teams that struggled look to be returning the most. That will be the Skyline in 2025.
The SUNYAC was all about Cortland last season as they came away with an 18.31 Points/Set number and the AQ. They really didn’t have anyone in conference that could run with them. For 2025, there are three teams, including Cortland, above the 45% mark in Points Lost. Cortland also losses a setter and a libero. Kind of weird that Cortland is the only team losing a setter to graduation in this conference. Still, Cortland has a huge base to start with so even with those losses they could be strong in this conference again in 2025. I just don’t see them being 2024 strong. Buffalo State looks to have the best chance of unseating Cortland as I don’t think the two teams that are keeping everyone (Plattsburg State and Oneonta) will have enough to make up the distance in Points/Set. Only three teams were above 50 NPI (New Paltz was the third behind Cortland and Buffalo State) but I think New Paltz’s losses are enough to be concerned about. They probably stay about where they were, which doesn’t get them past the other two teams, I believe.
That wasn’t too painful. Good to go around all of the conferences so I’m liking the automated data the Latvians got me. I will say, that it only includes team data (which is perfectly fine), but it means less calling out of players and giving them love. That was not a Change Request, Aleksejs…stand down. My bill this month is already too high.
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