QWI (2023)

Here is your (now annual) Quality Win Index (QWI) article. This metric was created by “Ned”, our secret New England mole, and it attempts to give us a different viewpoint into Strength of Schedule (SOS). As matches are played and results created, it then gives us a different viewpoint into the best teams in the nation. For now, QWI will only give us what it thinks are the toughest schedules in DIII volleyball, which is still a great thing. Up to now, you’ve only had to go by my word and silly grading system and only for Region X. QWI covers the nation.

QWI works from a basis or starting point that attempts to rank each team. We all know every ranking system is flawed so QWI uses three in an attempt to normalize the flaws. They are Pablo (Rich Kern), HuskerGeek and Massey and this round of QWI uses their 2022 ending ranks. Each school will get a basis value from 1 to 4 based on these rankings. Without getting into the specific formula, a school that is ranked 36^th, 24^th and 28^th will get a basis value of 2.93. (At this point I should say that I’m just copying what I wrote last year so I hope “Ned” hasn’t changed things.)

QWI then adds in two factors – home and away and region (or travel). If you beat a Top 100 team away, you get a 0.25 bonus. Home or a neutral site offer no bonuses. If you beat a Top 100 team out of region or in-region non-conference, you get a bonus of 0.2 to 0.5 depending on distance. I think this last bonus is a little controversial but QWI attempts to reward teams that take trips and spread their love (as it were) to other parts of the country. Ned explained that he doesn’t offer out of region bonuses to Regions I and II within those regions or Regions III and IV withing those regions. These are really the old New England and New York Regions that were split up in an effort to give them more power when it comes to at-large selection. (That wasn’t the stated goal, but it was the obvious fallout that was “ignored” by the realignment committee.) Ned also explained that conference play doesn’t get a travel bonus.

Ned gave an example last year of how much a match is worth but showing me the Southwestern at Wesleyan 2022 match. Wesleyan was ranked and had a basis point of 2.93. This is an away match that required a flight by Southwestern so with all of that considered, the match is worth 5.13 points to Southwestern. Being a home match for Wesleyan and requiring no travel, the match is worth less to Wesleyan. (Also, the basis points for Southwestern are different than Wesleyan.)

Let’s take a look at some of the output. Here are the Top 5 toughest schedules according to QWI:

Last year, Chicago had the toughest schedule according to QWI by a large amount but this year the top 3 schools in this list grade out even higher. The keen eye might also notice that all five are from Region VIII and, in fact, it extends to the top 7 with Millikin and WashU being next toughest.

I am going to repeat what I did last year by diving into each region and listing their Top 5 while also reveling the worst schedule (when I can) from each region.

Tufts repeats as having the toughest schedule in Region I although it’s 13 points lower than last year. Overall, the schedules are all worse than the top 5 last year. Like last year, the first 11 spots in this region all go the NESCAC schools. The worst schedule is shared by a whopping 24 teams that all earned (?) zero QWI points.

Brandeis claims the hardest schedule crown again this year in Region II. Overall, the points for the top 5 are about where they were last year. There are 7 teams in this region with a zero QWI. These first two regions really show the merit behind QWI. Teams in this region will typically have a really good SOS but QWI takes a harsher view of them and the schedules they play. SOS can be manipulated by playing average to below average teams that play in a weak conference and therefore have a good record, which you can find in the Northeast. QWI, on the other hand, says these teams aren’t any good so no points for you.

Ithaca repeats with the toughest schedule in Region III but they drop 9 points this year. This region has the lowest QWI number for their top school when compared to the other 9 regions. There are 16 teams with a zero QWI and that includes every team from the Skyline Conference. Not a great look.

NYU shows us the first really tough schedule out of the first four regions. As seems to be the pattern, it also about 8 or so points less than last year. Stevens is another school that seems to put up a decent schedule each year. There are 16 teams in this region with a 0 QWI.

Our first region without a repeat schedule winner. Last year it was Susquehanna but Juniata takes the top spot this year. The road will be slightly tougher for the defending champions but it shouldn’t be an issue for them. There are 13 teams with a zero QWI.

This is the first region, so far, that has seen a big jump in the difficulty of their schedules. More teams are scheduling better, which is always great to see. Chris Newport repeats at the top in this region and sees a 17-point jump in their QWI number. Good to see Centre jump into the Top 5 with an impressive QWI number. There are only two schools in this region with a zero QWI score: Bob Jones and Wesleyan (GA).

Another impressive showing by Region VII this year as their QWI numbers have increased across their Top 5. Hope replaces Calvin as having the toughest schedule this year. There are 10 teams in this region with a zero QWI number. Teams just out of the Top 5 were Muskingum, Ohio Northern, Albion and Case Western.

Hail to the victors. This region is brutal with a lot of good teams and it’s to the point if you wanted to play an easy schedule, you’d have to work really hard to come up with one. There are actually no zero QWI teams in this region. The worst schedule belongs to Maranatha Baptist. Oshkosh takes over from Chicago with the toughest schedule in the toughest region. Teams over 70 QWI that didn’t make the Top 5 are Millikin, WashU and UW-Stevens Point.

Gustavus Adolphus takes over from St Olaf as toughest schedule in Region IX. St Olaf drops to 8^th this year. This is another region that has stepped up their scheduling as a whole. There are no zero QWI teams here with the worst being Lawrence at 4.3.

Our last conference to dive into is another where we see the schedules improve overall. UC Santa Cruz replaces Trinity for the top spot and it’s nice to get an independent viewpoint into what I’ve been saying about the Slugs’ schedule. Last year, Mary Hardin-Baylor had the worst schedule in the region and I went off on them. Thankfully, that will not be the case this year. Oh, they are still the worst, I just don’t care anymore. Fellow ASC schools just above UMHB are Sul Ross State, Howard Payne and McMurry.

At the bottom of this article, I’ll paste all of the Region X teams in order of their QWI score. Good to see Colorado College with a better QWI number than last year. It should help their NCAA Tournament chances. Strange how getting an invite to the East/West Challenge (best tournament in DIII) helps you out there.

Region X QWI Scores