Predictions – ASC

I will be doing a prediction post each day this week.  Here is the order for the week:

• Monday – ASC

• Tuesday – Northwest Conference

• Wednesday – SCAC

• Thursday – SCIAC

• Friday – West Regional Rankings

ASC (East)

1. Texas-Dallas (UTD) – 2016 winners of the east and the conference tournament

2. Texas-Tyler (UTT)

3. East Texas Baptist University (ETBU)

4. LeTourneau

5. Louisiana College (see update below)

Belhaven is ineligible for the conference title or NCAA bid during DIII reclassifying process.

ASC (West)

1. Hardin-Simmons

2. Mary Hardin-Baylor (UMHB) – 2016 winners of the west

3. Concordia

4. Howard Payne

5. Sul Ross State

McMurry is ineligible for the conference title or NCAA bid during DIII reclassifying process.

Conference Tournament – UTD

I am not terribly confident of this UTD pick.  UMHB and UTD have been the class of the ASC the last few years, but we saw a drop-off with UMHB last season and UTD graduated a number of good players that included a standout middle.  UTD lost over 50% of their hitting statistics with this graduating class but should still retain their defensive identity.  Couple that with the return of their leading hitter and it’s enough for me to have them repeating their conference championship.  Having said that, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see UTT finish at the top of the east.  UTT impressed me with their hitting last year and they return almost everyone back from a very solid squad.  In the end, I’m going with the UTD defense over the UTT fire power.  ETBU struggled a bit last year to my surprise and it appears they will struggle even more this year.  As far as I can tell they only return two hitters and lose the bulk of their defense.  That is a lot to replace.  LeTourneau gets a new coach this season and practically an entire new team due to senior graduation.  I think they will struggle to win more than a handful of matches this year.

In the west it should be close between Hardin-Simmons and UMHB.  Both teams get the bulk of their squad back this year and recent tradition says UMHB should finish on top.  Instead, I am going with Hardin-Simmons.  With UMHB, I’m a little worried over their small roster size and I have concerns with their service receive and setting.  However, the ASC could be so close this year that bringing in a good freshman class might be enough to not only take the west but also the tournament championship.  With Hardin-Simmons, I believe it comes down to their middle blocker position and getting solid contributions at this position.  Concordia should improve slightly this year and will be a tough opponent for the rest of the conference.  Howard Payne should duplicate last year’s record but this won’t be enough to fend off the top 3 teams in this division.  Sul Ross State will be looking at another tough season.

Belhaven and McMurry are still ineligible for post season play.  McMurry is coming off a 20 win season and it will be interesting to see them compete in the ASC as a full member next year (NCAA willing).

UPDATE – UMHB posted their 2017 roster and the video on a couple of their freshman are really strong.  One of my concerns that led to placing them at #2 in the west was their small roster size.  This is no longer a concern as they have brought in 5 players and there is strong talent with this group.  The difference with Hardin-Simmons in my mind was razor thin before and I believe with this class UMHB will again win the west and will be a strong challenge to UTD in their tournament. 

UPDATE (8/14) – Wow, I missed a school!  The only comfort I have is that Ricky missed them, too.  Welcome Louisiana College to the ASC West Division!  I’m tempted to put them higher than LeTourneau but they should have enough returning to hold off LC this season.

UPDATE (9/3) – My two favorite players to watch on UTD are Fayna Zeng and Dylan Brinkman so it was surprise to me this weekend when I didn’t see them on the court! Turns out they both have injuries and neither appear to be short-term. Obviously this really hurts UTD’s chances but hopefully these young ladies can return fully healthy as soon as possible.